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Rainfall pattern returns to normal across the Kitsap Peninsula

After two years of near-record rainfall across the Kitsap Peninsula, precipitation has returned to a more normal pattern.

Halfway through the water year, which begins in October, rainfall in Hansville, Silverdale and Holly are all within 10 percent of the average for this time of year, according to weather instruments managed by Kitsap Public Utility District.

This near-average total for the first half of the year comes about despite a very wet November, when Hansville broke the all-time record for precipitation for that month. Since then, the monthly rainfall numbers have been mostly below average, except for a wet January when Holly nearly broke the record for that month.

As we’ve seen time and again, the amount of rainfall decreases dramatically as one travels from south to north on the Kitsap Peninsula. That’s the general pattern for all times of the year, although the amount of precipitation can vary wildly.

Hansville received 25.5 inches for the six months ending April 1, compared to a 28-year average of 23.1 inches for that period. Last year, the six-month figure was 7 inches higher at 32.5 inches, and the first half of 2016 went down in the record books with a total of 37.0 inches.

Silverdale posted 35.1 inches of rain by April 1, compared to a 28-year average of 38.1 inches for this time of year. Last year, this Central Kitsap area received 51.7 inches by April, and in 2016 the number was 52.3 inches, second only to 1999 with 69.8 inches.

In rainswept Holly, residents experienced 68.7 inches by April 1, compared to a 27-year average of 65.0 inches. By April 1 last year, Holly was practically swimming with 95.9 inches, driven by 24.0 inches during the month of October 2016 and 21.8 inches the next month. But nothing compares to the first half of water year 1999, when Holly received 120 inches for the first half of the year. Following a fairly dry summer, water year 1999 in Holly ended with 127.5 inches of precipitation.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has projected somewhat higher-than-average rainfall through the end of this month in the Pacific Northwest, followed by fairly average conditions going into summer. Forecasters rely heavily on observations about temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which influence a natural cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. See video this page.

A very strong El Niño during 2015 and 2016 (associated with the much-discussed “blob”) shifted into a weak La Niña in 2017. Conditions have now reversed course again and seem to be headed toward neutral. La Niñas are generally associated with cooler and wetter weather for our region of the country, while El Niños suggest warmer and dryer conditions — although it does not always turn out that way.

Neutral conditions are expected to arrive by summer, and some forecasters predict that the warmer El Niño could arrive toward the end of the water year in September, according to information released today by the Climate Prediction Center.

“Some of the computer models are forecasting development of El Niño by next fall,” noted research scientist Emily Becker in a new post on the ENSO Blog, “but there are a number of reasons why we’re not completely taking the bait right now.

“First, forecasts made this time of year tend to be less successful,” she continued. “Another reason is that, while elevated subsurface heat content in the spring sometimes precedes the development of El Niño in the fall, some recent studies have found that this relationship has not been very reliable over the past two decades.”

Researchers observed a warming trend in March among subsurface waters in the Eastern Pacific. Those waters are expected to rise to the surface over the next few months to potentially neutralize any cool surface waters that remain. The outcome is likely to be the end of the current La Niña and possibly the beginning of a new El Niño, featuring warmer ocean conditions.

Hansville sees record rains coming down during November

Hansville is the driest area in Kitsap County, but in November the skies opened up with more rain than we’ve seen there in the past 27 years. In November, enough rain fell in Hansville — 8.7 inches — to break the record for that location.

Hansville // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

Longtime residents of our region realize that the amount of precipitation goes up dramatically as one travels south out of Hansville. For Silverdale, November 2017 was the sixth wettest November in 26 years, with a total of 11.0 inches. Holly experienced its fourth wettest November, with 22.9 inches, all based on rainfall data compiled by Kitsap Public Utility District.

The one glitch for Hansville is that three years of rainfall data are missing — specifically 2007, 2008 and 2009 — and 2007 was a particularly wet year in some parts of the county. In fact, record November rains were seen in 2007 in Holly but not in Silverdale. We may never know where 2007 would have fit into the records for Hansville, but November 2007 was only average in Port Gamble — the closest station. It’s very likely that Hansville really did break the record for November this year.

Silverdale // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

Consistent with those geographic differences, in Holly it rained 27 out of 30 days in November, compared to Silverdale with 22 out of 30 days and Hansville with 20 out of 30 days. This came after a fairly average October.

As you can see from the charts on this page, November rains pushed the lines up to begin tracking the wettest years in the record books from one end of the county to the other. But, as I discussed last month, anything can happen during the coming winter and summer. Last year started out well ahead of the wettest years on record. But, starting in mid-December, the rains did not keep pace with the record years, and then came a very dry summer. See Water Ways, Oct. 27.

Holly // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

Let me take a moment to further emphasize the difference in rainfall from north to south on the Kitsap Peninsula. Holly’s nonrecord precipitation of 22.9 inches in November is more than half of Hansville’s rainfall for the entire record year of 1999, when a total of 43.8 inches came down. Holly’s annual record is 127.5 inches set in 1999.

The average annual rainfall for Hansville is 30.7 inches, compared to Silverdale with a 42.8-inch average and Holly with 79.2 inches.

Looking forward, the rains are likely to continue, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (PDF 5.3 mb). La Nina conditions emerged in October and are predicted to continue through the winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The likely result will be below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation across the northern part of the contiguous U.S. — and the opposite across the southern tier of states, as shown in the map below.

Green shows above average precipitation; brown is below average.
Graphic: National Climate Prediction Center

It was a wet water year; it was a dry water year

Water Year 2017 was a crazy year for rainfall, with a precipitation pattern unlikely to repeat anytime soon, although forecasters say the coming year is somewhat likely to be wetter than normal.

Hansville (click to enlarge)
Chart: Kitsap Public Utility District

If you recall, Water Year 2017 (which began last October) started off soggy with well above average rainfall until December. Last year’s rainfall, represented by the orange lines in the accompanying charts, was not only above average in October and November, but it exceeded the rainfall observed during the wettest year recorded since 1982.

If you follow the chart for Hansville, you can see that last year’s total precipitation stayed above the record year until late January. From there, last year’s total rainfall tracked with the record year until this past May, when the rains practically stopped.

Talk about a dry summer. We got practically no rain until September, with minimal precipitation through the end of the water year on Sept. 30, as shown in these charts provided by the Kitsap Public Utility District.

Silverdale (click to enlarge)
Chart: Kitsap Public Utility District

Hansville’s annual rainfall last year totaled 39.5 inches, about 4 inches off the record of 43.8 inches in 1999. The record would have been broken if the rainfall this past spring and summer would have been normal. The year before — Water Year 2016 — was also a wet one with precipitation totaling 42.5 inches in Hansville.

In Silverdale, which gets a good deal more rainfall than Hansville, the pattern was similar except that last year’s total stayed ahead of the record until early December. The pattern was similar for Holly, one of the wettest areas of the county.

Silverdale’s total for Water Year 2017 was 61.8 inches, well off the record of 76.9 inches set in 1999. Still, the record books show only two wetter years: 1996 with 67.7 inches and 1997 with 64.8 inches.

Holly (click to enlarge)
Chart: Kitsap Public Utility District

Holly’s total for Water Year 2017 was 112.7 inches, second only to 1999, when Holly received 127.5 inches of precipitation. Other wet years were 1995 with 101.1 inches and 1997 with 100.1 inches.

The new water year, starting with the beginning of this month, showed little precipitation at first, then the rains came in mid-October, putting most areas near average, as shown by the blue line in the charts.

Overall, October so far has been a fairly wet month, up to twice the average rainfall in the Puget Sound region. For the nation as a whole, October has been mixed. We’ve seen extremely dry conditions in the Southwest, while up to four times the normal precipitation has been recorded for a swath from the Great Lakes down to the Central states, including the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Check out the map from the PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University.

The outlook for the next three months from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows the likelihood for wetter-than-normal conditions across the northern part of the U.S., although Western Washington should be about normal. Meanwhile, the southern tier states are likely to have drier conditions.

A La Niña watch remains in effect. If conditions in the Pacific Ocean continue to develop, we could see cooler- and wetter-then-normal conditions early next year. So far, there is no indication what the annual precipitation for our area might be. But after last year’s turn of events we should not be surprised by any weather pattern.

Amusing Monday: Umbrellas for James Bond, Bozo the Clown

They say it’s going to start raining steadily any day now and that we could be headed for rainy La Niña conditions this winter. So I thought it might be fun to pay tribute to the common — and especially the uncommon — umbrella.

The polite umbrella: Pull a string on the handle to squeeze through tight spaces or walk through crowds without poking someone.

I never knew people could be so creative with umbrellas, whose basic design goes back at least 2000 years when these devices were used by Chinese royalty. It remains unclear whether the first of these folding canopies was used to protect against sun or rain, according to a documented entry on Wikipedia.

Because umbrellas date back to antiquity, I guess I can’t search out the original patent, although it is said that the U.S. Patent Office has submissions with more than 3,000 plans to improve on the umbrella’s basic design. See the entry in Mental Floss.

As for etymology, the word “parasol” comes from the combination of “para,” meaning stop, and “sol,” meaning sun. However, if you want to stop the rain, then the French word “parapluie” comes into play. “Pluie” is a French word for rain, coming from the Latin “pluvial.” So, from now on, you can grab your parapluie when you go out into the rain if you would rather not carry an umbrella.

Raindrops pounding on a special conductive material in the umbrella fabric sets off LEDs to light the way. // Source: Yanko Design

Oddly enough, the word “umbrella” seems to come from the Latin “umbra,” which means shading or shadow, making “umbrella” synonymous with “parasol.” The Latin word for umbrella is “umbella.”

Contrary to common belief, the word “bumbershoot” does not come from Great Britain, and the British do not commonly use this word. Rather bumbershoot was American vernacular, first showing up in a dictionary in 1896, according to an article in World Wide Words.

Getting back to amusing umbrellas, you can go far afield in a search for a stylish, elaborate or finely decorated umbrella. You can seek out whimsy or prankishness in the design, such as in the umbrella with a squirt gun in the handle. You can also find items that meld the ancient with modern technology, such as a blue tooth device to answer the smart phone in your pocket or the miniature video projector for watching movies in the top of your umbrella.

A squirt gun in the handle of an umbrella can break up the monotony of the rain, which refills the pistol.

I’m not sure why I have never written about umbrellas, given the dozens of webpages and advertising sites devoted to the subject. I’ve selected five of the best websites for you to check out:

One video producer gathered up pictures of unusual umbrellas, including some not shown in the websites above. Complete with music, the video can be found on YouTube.

The video below is a demonstration of a specialized umbrella by a one-legged man named Josh Sundquist, who has the greatest attitude about life and problem solving. If you want to know why Josh doesn’t just wear rain gear, listen to what he has to say at 2:23 into the video. And check out Josh’s other videos, including a stand-up routine (no pun intended) about amputees on airplanes.

By the way, I have never owned an umbrella in my entire life, preferring to wear a rain jacket with a hood on most occasions, although rain pants sometimes come in handy. After looking at hundreds of cool umbrellas on the Internet, I think I will choose the perfect one for me. Then again, naaaaah!

FEMA offers daily email briefings on weather, emergency conditions

One of the first emails I check out each morning is the “FEMA Daily Operations Briefing” issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. At a glance, I get an idea of significant weather events and emergency activities across the country.

Often, I see nothing that seems significant to me, and I move on to other email. But if something stands out, I click on the link that takes me to the full briefing in PDF format.

Today’s forecast. // Map: FEMA

This morning’s report, for example, told me that flash floods had occurred in various areas of the country and that dry thunderstorms were seen in parts of Oregon, California, Nevada and Idaho. Up until then, daily briefings included warnings that such events were about to occur.

The daily reports also include significant events, such as a non-injury train derailment and evacuation in Pennsylvania; tropical weather that could be a precursor to hurricanes and cyclones; space weather that could trigger aurora borealis; earthquakes; and disaster declarations.

The full daily briefing is also my shortcut to national weather maps with one-, two- and three-day forecasts for ordinary weather, as well as potential “severe” weather outlooks. I think the page should include a link to a more complete explanation of the colors used on the maps, but that information can be found on the website of the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.

Daily reports from the past four years can be located in an online archive on FEMA’s website.

I thought readers of this blog might be interested in this daily briefing. Anyone can receive the briefings along with other information available by email by signing up on FEMA’s email-delivery page. Just scroll down and check “FEMA Daily Operations Briefing.”

While I’m on the subject of FEMA, I should mention the mobile app for smart phones, which includes the option to receive weather alerts for up to five counties in the U.S. along with different kinds of information. You can read about the app on the FEMA website.

It was a wet water year, but then the weather reversed its course

After unusually high amounts of rain fell on the Kitsap Peninsula last fall, this summer is starting out with a most unusual pattern of dryness.

It appears that we haven’t had any measurable precipitation anywhere on the peninsula since mid-June. That’s an oddity for dryness not seen in even the driest year on record since 1990, when Kitsap Public Utility District began keeping rainfall data.

Since May 17, Central Kitsap has seen only 1.4 inches of rain, while less than half an inch fell in Hansville during that time period. That’s barely any rain, given that we are talking about nearly two months. Holly has experienced about 2.4 inches in that time — still way low for the rain belt region of the Kitsap Peninsula. And to think that last fall I was contemplating that we might break a record this year. See Water Ways, Oct 27.

I will admit that I used to avoid writing weather stories for the Kitsap Sun. If an editor asked me to write about the weather, I would think for a moment and promise a “much better” story of a different kind. Now, as I try to keep up on climate change, I find myself fascinated with what I can learn from rainfall patterns — including the extremes you see going from south to north on the Kitsap Peninsula.

If you haven’t been around the area much, you may not know that we get more and stronger rainstorms in the southwest corner of the peninsula around Holly, while Hansville at the peninsula’s northern tip may get a third as much rainfall in some years.

Take a look at the pink lines in the charts on this page to see the average over 25-30 years. The scales on the left side of the graphs are different, but the charts show an average precipitation around 30 inches for Hansville in North Kitsap, 50 inches for Silverdale in Central Kitsap, and nearly 80 inches for Holly in Southwest Kitsap.

These charts also show the rainfall patterns in each area for this year with a blue line. Last year, which had above normal rainfall, is shown in orange. And the year that ended with the highest total rainfall is shown in green.

Hansville is especially interesting, because this year and last year essentially kept pace with the record rainfall year of 1999 as spring ended and summer began. In fact, on May 16 of all three years, the total accumulation to date in Hansville was 38 inches, give or take less than half an inch.

After May 16, the three years diverged in accumulated rainfall, and this year’s dry spell makes the blue line as flat as it can get for an extended period. Last year, the driest time came in April, as you can see from the flat section of the orange line.

July and August are typically the driest months of the year, but that can vary greatly by year. I used to tell people that we Puget Sound residents can expect a full three months of summer each year, but nobody can predict when it will happen or whether it will be divided up, say a week here and a week there.

Anyway, as I mentioned on April 1 in Water Ways, we are on a trajectory to exceed the average rainfall this year even if we get no more rain until the water year is over on Sept. 30. It appears our water wells will survive, but we need more rain for the streams to rise by early fall for salmon to increase their numbers.

Washington state keeps its cool for the first five months of this year

For the first five months of this year, Washington state has stood out as the only state in the U.S. with a below-average temperature.

While most of the country was experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures, we here in Washington were going outside to temperatures that averaged nearly 1 degree F. below normal.

In fact, the contiguous 48 states recorded the second-warmest January-through-May period on record, despite cooler conditions in Washington. Average temperatures were 1.4 degrees F. below the record set in 2012 for the same period, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (PDF 4.2 mb). Click on maps to enlarge.

The average temperature in Washington state was 38.6 degrees for the first five months of the year, compared to an average of 39.4 degrees for the 20th century. Out of 124 years on record, it was the 35th coolest for the five-month period, the coolest since 2011. The coolest on record was in 1950.

Forty states were much warmer than average during the same time period, with Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas reaching record-warm levels.

Of course, temperatures can vary greatly from year to year, but climate conditions in Washington, as in most of the world, demonstrate an increasing temperature trend since records began in 1895, as shown by the blue line in the graphic.

The country as a whole has also been much wetter than normal so far this year. Average precipitation across the lower-48 has reached 14.85 inches, which is 2.46 inches above average and the fourth wettest January-through-May period on record. It is also the wettest first five months since 1998.

Washington state was 6.78 inches above the 20th century average of 20.03 inches for the five-month time period. This year was the sixth wettest on record.

Washington and five other western states were listed as much above average for snow and rain, while Idaho reached record precipitation for the first five months of the year. Record flooding was reported in the mid-Mississippi Valley. Below average precipitation was seen in the Northern Plains states and Florida.

Meanwhile, about 5 percent of the lower-48 was listed in drought conditions on May 30, up slightly from earlier in the year. Drought improved in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, but it worsened in the Northern and Southern Plains and in Florida.

Rainfall in the first six months of water year exceeds yearly average

Halfway through the current water year, which began on Oct. 1, rainfall patterns on the Kitsap Peninsula are shaping up to look a lot like last year.

Hansville rain gauge (click to enlarge)
Source: Kitsap PUD

For most areas, total rainfall is well above average, as it was last year at this time. It is also well below the record accumulation in most places. One exception is Hansville in North Kitsap, as you can see in the first chart on this page. There, the total rainfall is tracking both last year and 1999 — the highest year on record, which goes back 35 years at that station.

Moving into the drier half of the water year, it is now obvious that we will be above average in rainfall for the entire year, since we have already reached the average in most places.

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Amusing Monday: Winter outings are antidotes for the gloom

The gloomy feeling of rainy weather, as experienced by looking out from the inside of your house, can be defeated with a trip to the mountains, where all kinds of winter fun await.

Longmire at Mount Rainier, looking east from Administration Building.
Webcam: Longmire at Mount Rainier, looking southwest from the Administration Building.

Downhill skiing and snowboarding are popular activities at Washington’s ski resorts. Cross-country skiing and snowshoeing are less-vigorous options, as are sledding and inner-tubing. One of many useful websites is “Pacific Northwest Winter Sports.”

If these activities don’t sound like great fun, you can plan a drive that takes you into wonderful snow conditions and provides an opportunity to build a snowman or enjoy a snowball fight. Lodges and visitor centers offer a retreat from the cold. You might make friends with others who love the winter weather.

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Rainfall records are beginning to fall across the Kitsap Peninsula

Water Year 2017, which began on Oct. 1, got off to a rip-roaring start this month in terms of rainfall, and now records are falling for October rainfall totals across the Kitsap Peninsula.

holly

As shown in the three charts on this page, the graph started climbing steeply above the lines shown — including the green lines, which denote the highest annual precipitation recorded for the past 25 to 33 years.

So far this month, 19.5 inches of rain have fallen at Holly, which has averaged about 7 inches in October for the past 24 years. As you can see in the annual rainfall map at the bottom of this page, Holly lies in the rain zone on the Kitsap Peninsula — the area with the greatest amount of rainfall in most years. With four days left in the month, Holly has about an inch to go to break the record of 20.5 inches going back to 1991.

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