Tag Archives: Rainfall

In Hansville, September rainfall was highest in 30 years of records

September was a record-setting month for rainfall in Hansville in North Kitsap, but not for the rest of the Kitsap Peninsula, which overall still received lots of rain. This demonstrates again how different one part of our region is from another — and how Kitsap County is a world apart from the rest of the Puget Sound region.

As we close out Water Year 2019, we can see from the charts that that the annual rainfall (blue line) was below average (pink line), but September rains nearly pushed Hansville up to the average mark.

Hansville had a total of 3.56 inches of rainfall in September, according to data maintained by the Kitsap Public Utility District. That’s more rain than any other September going back to 1990, when the KPUD records begin. The second-highest September rainfall was in 2013, with 2.88 inches.

In Silverdale, the monthly total was 2.71 inches of precipitation. Typically, Silverdale gets more rain than Hansville. In fact, the median average for Silverdale in September is 25 percent higher — 1.0 inch, compared to Hansville’s 0.8 inch.

But if you’re talking about records for Silverdale, you need to go back to 2013, when 6.8 inches of rain fell in September. That’s far more than any other year going back to 1991. In 1997, 5.4 inches fell on Silverdale in September, but no other year had even 3 inches.

In fact, the month of September 2013 was reported as “one for the record books” in a Kitsap Sun story at the time. Reporter Brynn Grimley said rainfall Sept. 28-29, 2013, was 2.2 inches in one day — the most since 1899. The storm also brought winds that knocked down trees and power lines, Brynn reported.

The year 2013 set rainfall records throughout most of Kitsap County.

Holly, which typically gets some of the heaviest rainfalls on the peninsula, received 5.4 inches this past September. That is a lot, considering that September is typically fairly dry, but it is nowhere near the record of 9.6 inches set for Holly in 2013. The median average there is 1.5 inches in September.

We have to recognize that we are limited to a 30-year period when talking about records in the KPUD database, but it’s still worth discussing. Bellingham, where the records go back to 1949, set a new rainfall high last month with 4.73 inches of precipitation, just above the old record of 4.71 inches for September 1969, according to the National Weather Service’s Twitter feed.

In September, Western Washington and much of the Northwest experienced at least twice the normal rainfall, while dry weather was seen over much of the East.

So September was indeed a wet month on the Kitsap Peninsula and other places in the Puget Sound region. For Water Year 2019 as a whole, however, we did not reach the annual average. Hansville received a total of 29.4 inches, compared to a median average of 30.7 inches. Silverdale received 37.2 inches, compared to a median average of 42.8. And Holly received 68.5 inches, compared to a median average of 79.2.

While Western Washington and much of the Northwest experienced at least twice the normal rainfall in September, much of the country was fairly dry. By next week, most of the eastern portion of the country will get some rain, predicts Brad Rippey, meteorologist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Heavy rain may occur across the upper Midwest, where some rivers are already running high, he said.

Cooler-than-normal conditions with above-normal precipitation are expected to continue from the Northwest into Montana during the Oct. 8-12 time period, while large sections of the Plains, Southwest, Midwest and mid-South undergo drier-then-normal conditions, according to the forecast (PDF 5.7 mb) in the “USDA Water and Climate Update.”

Drought continues with fear of fire throughout Western Washington

Severe drought is settling in across most of Western Washington — including Kitsap County — where dry conditions raise the risks of wildfire, and low streamflows could impair salmon spawning this fall.

Western Washington is one of the few places in the country with “severe” drought.
Map: U.S. Drought Monitor, Richard Tinker, U.S. agencies.

Scattered showers and drizzle the past few days have done little to reverse a drying trend as we go into what is normally the driest period of the year, from now through August. As of today, the fire danger is moderate, but warmer weather could increase the risk substantially within a day or two.

The topsy-turvy weather that I observed across the Kitsap Peninsula last quarter (Water Ways, April 2) continued through June. Normally, the southwest corner of the peninsula near Holly receives twice the precipitation as the north end near Hansville. But that didn’t happen last month, when the monthly rainfall total was 0.61 inches in Holly and 0.83 inches in Hansville. Silverdale, about halfway between, received 1.11 inches in June.

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Kitsap weather shifts to unusual patterns over past three months

“Average, very average.” That’s how things were going for the first quarter of Water Year 2019, which began in October and ran through the end of last year (Water Ways, Jan. 4). But the second quarter, which began in January, presented an uncharacteristic upheaval, as various portions of the Kitsap Peninsula went their own way.

We’ve talked before about how Southwest Kitsap typically has twice the rainfall as North Kitsap. But even the patterns of rainfall have been different the past three months, and you can’t compare these areas to anywhere else. Let’s take them one at a time:

Hansville: Representing the north end of the peninsula, Hansville received 2.5 inches of precipitation in January, well below the 4.4-inch average for the month. February followed with a little below average, 2.8 compared to 3.2 inches. Like January, March was quite low, with 1.1 inches compared to a 3.5-inch average. In the first chart (click to enlarge), you can see this water year’s rainfall total (blue line) slipping below average (pink line).

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The word is ‘average’ for the first three months of Water Year 2019

Average, very average. That was my first reaction as I looked over the rainfall data for the first quarter of Water Year 2019, which began Oct. 1.

The point was driven home when I looked at the rainfall totals for Silverdale on the website of the Kitsap Public Utility District. October’s rainfall total was 3.23 inches, compared to a median average of 3.74 inches. November’s total was 5.51, compared to a 6.83 average. And December’s total was 9.31, lining up perfectly with a 9.31 average. (Exactly the same! What’s the chance of that happening?)

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Hansville sees record rains coming down during November

Hansville is the driest area in Kitsap County, but in November the skies opened up with more rain than we’ve seen there in the past 27 years. In November, enough rain fell in Hansville — 8.7 inches — to break the record for that location.

Hansville // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

Longtime residents of our region realize that the amount of precipitation goes up dramatically as one travels south out of Hansville. For Silverdale, November 2017 was the sixth wettest November in 26 years, with a total of 11.0 inches. Holly experienced its fourth wettest November, with 22.9 inches, all based on rainfall data compiled by Kitsap Public Utility District.

The one glitch for Hansville is that three years of rainfall data are missing — specifically 2007, 2008 and 2009 — and 2007 was a particularly wet year in some parts of the county. In fact, record November rains were seen in 2007 in Holly but not in Silverdale. We may never know where 2007 would have fit into the records for Hansville, but November 2007 was only average in Port Gamble — the closest station. It’s very likely that Hansville really did break the record for November this year.

Silverdale // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

Consistent with those geographic differences, in Holly it rained 27 out of 30 days in November, compared to Silverdale with 22 out of 30 days and Hansville with 20 out of 30 days. This came after a fairly average October.

As you can see from the charts on this page, November rains pushed the lines up to begin tracking the wettest years in the record books from one end of the county to the other. But, as I discussed last month, anything can happen during the coming winter and summer. Last year started out well ahead of the wettest years on record. But, starting in mid-December, the rains did not keep pace with the record years, and then came a very dry summer. See Water Ways, Oct. 27.

Holly // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

Let me take a moment to further emphasize the difference in rainfall from north to south on the Kitsap Peninsula. Holly’s nonrecord precipitation of 22.9 inches in November is more than half of Hansville’s rainfall for the entire record year of 1999, when a total of 43.8 inches came down. Holly’s annual record is 127.5 inches set in 1999.

The average annual rainfall for Hansville is 30.7 inches, compared to Silverdale with a 42.8-inch average and Holly with 79.2 inches.

Looking forward, the rains are likely to continue, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (PDF 5.3 mb). La Nina conditions emerged in October and are predicted to continue through the winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The likely result will be below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation across the northern part of the contiguous U.S. — and the opposite across the southern tier of states, as shown in the map below.

Green shows above average precipitation; brown is below average.
Graphic: National Climate Prediction Center