Average, very average. That was my first reaction as I looked
over the rainfall data for the first quarter of Water Year 2019,
which began Oct. 1.
The point was driven home when I looked at the rainfall totals
for Silverdale on the website of the Kitsap Public Utility
District. October’s rainfall total was 3.23 inches, compared to
a median average of 3.74 inches. November’s total was 5.51,
compared to a 6.83 average. And December’s total was 9.31, lining
up perfectly with a 9.31 average. (Exactly the same! What’s the
chance of that happening?)
UPDATE:
July 5. Greg Johnson, who lives in Hansville and manages the
Skunk Bay Weather
station there, said the unusually high rainfall in June for
Hansville, compared to the rest of the peninsula, was the result of
the Puget Sound convergence zone settling over the area on several
occasions. Weather conditions brought localized squalls during the
month, he said, adding, “This is very unusual for us.”
The reading at Greg’s weather station, 1.98 inches for the month
of June, was somewhat lower than the 2.26 inches recorded at Kitsap
PUD’s weather station in Hansville.
—–
Cool, often cloudy conditions have helped obscure the fact that
very little rain has fallen on the Kitsap Peninsula over the past
two months.
Precipitation in Holly
(click to enlarge)
Now that we are in the fourth quarter of the water year, we can
see that rainfall levels for this year will be close to average for
most areas on the peninsula. What might not be recognized, however,
is that April was well above average, while May and June were well
below average.
After two years of near-record rainfall across the Kitsap
Peninsula, precipitation has returned to a more normal pattern.
Halfway through the water year, which begins in October,
rainfall in Hansville, Silverdale and Holly are all within 10
percent of the average for this time of year, according to weather
instruments managed by Kitsap Public Utility District.
This near-average total for the first half of the year comes
about despite a very wet November, when Hansville broke the
all-time record for precipitation for that month. Since then, the
monthly rainfall numbers have been mostly below average, except for
a wet January when Holly nearly broke the record for that
month.
As we’ve seen time and again, the amount of rainfall decreases
dramatically as one travels from south to north on the Kitsap
Peninsula. That’s the general pattern for all times of the year,
although the amount of precipitation can vary wildly.
Hansville received 25.5 inches for the six months ending April
1, compared to a 28-year average of 23.1 inches for that period.
Last year, the six-month figure was 7 inches higher at 32.5 inches,
and the first half of 2016 went down in the record books with a
total of 37.0 inches.
Silverdale posted 35.1 inches of rain by April 1, compared to a
28-year average of 38.1 inches for this time of year. Last year,
this Central Kitsap area received 51.7 inches by April, and in 2016
the number was 52.3 inches, second only to 1999 with 69.8
inches.
In rainswept Holly, residents experienced 68.7 inches by April
1, compared to a 27-year average of 65.0 inches. By April 1 last
year, Holly was practically swimming with 95.9 inches, driven by
24.0 inches during the month of October 2016 and 21.8 inches the
next month. But nothing compares to the first half of water year
1999, when Holly received 120 inches for the first half of the
year. Following a fairly dry summer, water year 1999 in Holly ended
with 127.5 inches of precipitation.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has projected somewhat
higher-than-average rainfall through the end of this month in the
Pacific Northwest, followed by fairly average conditions going into
summer. Forecasters rely heavily on observations about temperatures
in the Pacific Ocean, which influence a natural cycle known as the
El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. See video this page.
A very strong El Niño during 2015 and 2016 (associated with the
much-discussed “blob”) shifted into a weak La Niña in 2017.
Conditions have now reversed course again and seem to be headed
toward neutral. La Niñas are generally associated with cooler and
wetter weather for our region of the country, while El Niños
suggest warmer and dryer conditions — although it does not always
turn out that way.
Neutral conditions are expected to arrive by summer, and some
forecasters predict that the warmer El Niño could arrive toward the
end of the water year in September, according to information
released today by
the Climate Prediction Center.
“Some of the computer models are forecasting development of El
Niño by next fall,” noted research scientist Emily Becker in a new
post on the
ENSO Blog, “but there are a number of reasons why we’re not
completely taking the bait right now.
“First, forecasts made this time of year tend to be less
successful,” she continued. “Another reason is that, while elevated
subsurface heat content in the spring sometimes precedes the
development of El Niño in the fall, some recent studies have found
that this relationship has not been very reliable over the past two
decades.”
Researchers observed a warming trend in March among subsurface
waters in the Eastern Pacific. Those waters are expected to rise to
the surface over the next few months to potentially neutralize any
cool surface waters that remain. The outcome is likely to be the
end of the current La Niña and possibly the beginning of a new El
Niño, featuring warmer ocean conditions.
Water Year 2017 was a crazy year for rainfall, with a
precipitation pattern unlikely to repeat anytime soon, although
forecasters say the coming year is somewhat likely to be wetter
than normal.
Hansville (click to
enlarge)
Chart: Kitsap Public Utility District
If you recall, Water Year 2017 (which began last October)
started off soggy with well above average rainfall until December.
Last year’s rainfall, represented by the orange lines in the
accompanying charts, was not only above average in October and
November, but it exceeded the rainfall observed during the wettest
year recorded since 1982.
If you follow the chart for Hansville, you can see that last
year’s total precipitation stayed above the record year until late
January. From there, last year’s total rainfall tracked with the
record year until this past May, when the rains practically
stopped.
Talk about a dry summer. We got practically no rain until
September, with minimal precipitation through the end of the water
year on Sept. 30, as shown in these charts provided by the Kitsap Public Utility
District.
Silverdale (click to
enlarge)
Chart: Kitsap Public Utility District
Hansville’s annual rainfall last year totaled 39.5 inches, about
4 inches off the record of 43.8 inches in 1999. The record would
have been broken if the rainfall this past spring and summer would
have been normal. The year before — Water Year 2016 — was also a
wet one with precipitation totaling 42.5 inches in Hansville.
In Silverdale, which gets a good deal more rainfall than
Hansville, the pattern was similar except that last year’s total
stayed ahead of the record until early December. The pattern was
similar for Holly, one of the wettest areas of the county.
Silverdale’s total for Water Year 2017 was 61.8 inches, well off
the record of 76.9 inches set in 1999. Still, the record books show
only two wetter years: 1996 with 67.7 inches and 1997 with 64.8
inches.
Holly (click to enlarge)
Chart: Kitsap Public Utility District
Holly’s total for Water Year 2017 was 112.7 inches, second only
to 1999, when Holly received 127.5 inches of precipitation. Other
wet years were 1995 with 101.1 inches and 1997 with 100.1
inches.
The new water year, starting with the beginning of this month,
showed little precipitation at first, then the rains came in
mid-October, putting most areas near average, as shown by the blue
line in the charts.
Overall, October so far has been a fairly wet month, up to twice
the average rainfall in the Puget Sound region. For the nation as a
whole, October has been mixed. We’ve seen extremely dry conditions
in the Southwest, while up to four times the normal precipitation
has been recorded for a swath from the Great Lakes down to the
Central states, including the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Check
out the map from the PRISM
Climate Group at Oregon State University.
The outlook for the next three months from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows the
likelihood for wetter-than-normal conditions across the northern
part of the U.S., although Western Washington should be about
normal. Meanwhile, the southern tier states are likely to have
drier conditions.
A La Niña watch remains in effect. If conditions in the Pacific
Ocean continue to develop, we could see cooler- and
wetter-then-normal conditions early next year. So far, there is no
indication what the annual precipitation for our area might be. But
after last year’s turn of events we should not be surprised by any
weather pattern.
They say it’s going to start raining steadily any day now and
that we could be headed for rainy La Niña conditions this winter.
So I thought it might be fun to pay tribute to the common — and
especially the uncommon — umbrella.
The polite umbrella: Pull a
string on the handle to squeeze through tight spaces or walk
through crowds without poking someone.
I never knew people could be so creative with umbrellas, whose
basic design goes back at least 2000 years when these devices were
used by Chinese royalty. It remains unclear whether the first of
these folding canopies was used to protect against sun or rain,
according to a documented entry on Wikipedia.
Because umbrellas date back to antiquity, I guess I can’t search
out the original patent, although it is said that the U.S. Patent
Office has submissions with more than 3,000 plans to improve on the
umbrella’s basic design. See the entry in
Mental Floss.
As for etymology, the word “parasol” comes from the combination
of “para,” meaning stop, and “sol,” meaning sun. However, if you
want to stop the rain, then the French word “parapluie” comes into
play. “Pluie” is a French word for rain, coming from the Latin
“pluvial.” So, from now on, you can grab your parapluie when you go
out into the rain if you would rather not carry an umbrella.
Raindrops pounding on a special
conductive material in the umbrella fabric sets off LEDs to light
the way. // Source: Yanko Design
Oddly enough, the word “umbrella” seems to come from the Latin
“umbra,” which means shading or shadow, making “umbrella”
synonymous with “parasol.” The Latin word for umbrella is
“umbella.”
Contrary to common belief, the word “bumbershoot” does not come
from Great Britain, and the British do not commonly use this word.
Rather bumbershoot was American vernacular, first showing up in a
dictionary in 1896, according to an article in World Wide
Words.
Getting back to amusing umbrellas, you can go far afield in a
search for a stylish, elaborate or finely decorated umbrella. You
can seek out whimsy or prankishness in the design, such as in the
umbrella with a squirt gun in the handle. You can also find items
that meld the ancient with modern technology, such as a blue tooth
device to answer the smart phone in your pocket or the miniature
video projector for watching movies in the top of your
umbrella.
A squirt gun in the handle of
an umbrella can break up the monotony of the rain, which refills
the pistol.
I’m not sure why I have never written about umbrellas, given the
dozens of webpages and advertising sites devoted to the subject.
I’ve selected five of the best websites for you to check out:
One video producer gathered up pictures of unusual umbrellas,
including some not shown in the websites above. Complete with
music, the video can be found on YouTube.
The video below is a demonstration of a specialized umbrella by
a one-legged man named Josh Sundquist, who has the greatest
attitude about life and problem solving. If you want to know why
Josh doesn’t just wear rain gear, listen to what he has to say at
2:23 into the video. And check out Josh’s
other videos, including a stand-up routine (no pun intended)
about amputees on
airplanes.
By the way, I have never owned an umbrella in my entire life,
preferring to wear a rain jacket with a hood on most occasions,
although rain pants sometimes come in handy. After looking at
hundreds of cool umbrellas on the Internet, I think I will choose
the perfect one for me. Then again, naaaaah!
After unusually high amounts of rain fell on the Kitsap
Peninsula last fall, this summer is starting out with a most
unusual pattern of dryness.
It appears that we haven’t had any measurable precipitation
anywhere on the peninsula since mid-June. That’s an oddity for
dryness not seen in even the driest year on record since 1990, when
Kitsap Public Utility District began keeping rainfall data.
Since May 17, Central Kitsap has seen only 1.4 inches of rain,
while less than half an inch fell in Hansville during that time
period. That’s barely any rain, given that we are talking about
nearly two months. Holly has experienced about 2.4 inches in that
time — still way low for the rain belt region of the Kitsap
Peninsula. And to think that last fall I was contemplating that we
might break a record this year. See
Water Ways, Oct 27.
I will admit that I used to avoid writing weather stories for
the Kitsap Sun. If an editor asked me to write about the weather, I
would think for a moment and promise a “much better” story of a
different kind. Now, as I try to keep up on climate change, I find
myself fascinated with what I can learn from rainfall patterns —
including the extremes you see going from south to north on the
Kitsap Peninsula.
If you haven’t been around the area much, you may not know that
we get more and stronger rainstorms in the southwest corner of the
peninsula around Holly, while Hansville at the peninsula’s northern
tip may get a third as much rainfall in some years.
Take a look at the pink lines in the charts on this page to see
the average over 25-30 years. The scales on the left side of the
graphs are different, but the charts show an average precipitation
around 30 inches for Hansville in North Kitsap, 50 inches for
Silverdale in Central Kitsap, and nearly 80 inches for Holly in
Southwest Kitsap.
These charts also show the rainfall patterns in each area for
this year with a blue line. Last year, which had above normal
rainfall, is shown in orange. And the year that ended with the
highest total rainfall is shown in green.
Hansville is especially interesting, because this year and last
year essentially kept pace with the record rainfall year of 1999 as
spring ended and summer began. In fact, on May 16 of all three
years, the total accumulation to date in Hansville was 38 inches,
give or take less than half an inch.
After May 16, the three years diverged in accumulated rainfall,
and this year’s dry spell makes the blue line as flat as it can get
for an extended period. Last year, the driest time came in April,
as you can see from the flat section of the orange line.
July and August are typically the driest months of the year, but
that can vary greatly by year. I used to tell people that we Puget
Sound residents can expect a full three months of summer each year,
but nobody can predict when it will happen or whether it will be
divided up, say a week here and a week there.
Anyway, as I mentioned on
April 1 in Water Ways, we are on a trajectory to exceed the
average rainfall this year even if we get no more rain until the
water year is over on Sept. 30. It appears our water wells will
survive, but we need more rain for the streams to rise by early
fall for salmon to increase their numbers.
Rainfall in much of North Kitsap has been falling at record
rates since the beginning of the so-called water year, which begins
in October. If you live in Kingston, January’s rainfall is running
well above records kept since 1993 by the Kitsap Public Utility
District.
For the month of January, 9.4 inches has fallen in Kingston so
far. That is more rainfall this January than during any January in
the 23-year record. The previous high in Kingston for the month of
January was 8.3 inches in 2006.
As you can see from the chart, this year’s rainfall in Kingston
(blue line) was tracking slightly above the record until early
December, when it took off at a higher rate. January burst forth at
an even higher rate.
The pattern was similar for Hansville to the north, where rains
have been falling hard. Extremely high rainfall in November of 2010
established a record for that year that will be difficult to beat
in our northernmost community.
So far this year, Poulsbo (KPUD office) has been tracking the
maximum water year fairly closely since October. January 2016 is
the wettest recorded at this site. So far in January, it has
recorded 11.6 inches. The previous high, 11.2 inches, was recorded
in 1998. Thanks to Mark Morgan at the PUD for this analysis.
Central Kitsap near Bremerton caught up with the maximum water
year this past week. And Holly lags behind the maximum water year
of 1999 but well above the 26-year average.
If you haven’t noticed, the Kitsap Peninsula is a rather strange
place for measuring the rain. Historically the northern tip gets
about half the annual rainfall as the southwest part.
For the Pacific region as a whole. the well-publicized El Niño
effect has grown stronger, becoming one of the strongest El Niño
years since at least the 1950s. But that is about to change. Based
on sea surface temperatures, we have just passed the peak of the El
Niño, and most models suggest that ocean conditions will transition
to a neutral pattern by summer. See
El Niño forecast graph and the narrative by the
Climate Prediction Center (PDF 707 kb).
According to the CPC report, “El Niño has already produced
significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature
and precipitation patterns across the United States during the
upcoming months.”
According to predictions, temperatures should remain above
average for at least the next three months. Meanwhile,
precipitation is expected to continue above average for the next
week or so, decline to average in about a month, then remain below
average until at least the first part of May. For a quick look at
this graphically, check out the interactive display.
Meanwhile, as the Northwest and Great Lakes regions experience
drier than average conditions over the next few months, California
and the Southwest states, along with Florida and the Gulf states,
will see above-average rainfall.
As observed by the Climate Prediction Center:
“Since we are now past the peak of the El Niño event in terms of
SST anomalies, the relevant questions relate to how quickly the
event decays and whether we see a transition to La Niña, which
frequently follows on the heels of El Niño event, the CPC SST
consolidation forecasts a return to neutral conditions by
May-June-July and a 79 percent chance of La Niña by next
winter.”
The following video describes the current El Niño
conditions.
UPDATE: April 24, 2015
Cliff Mass, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of
Washington, says in his
blog that it is too early to be predicting severe drought in
Western Washington this summer because of possible late-spring
rains:
“I believe the media and some local politicians have gotten a
bit too worried about our ‘drought.’ We have NOT had a
precipitation drought at all….we are in a snow drought due to warm
temperatures. The situation is unique and I suspect we will weather
this summer far better than expected.”
—–
The word seems to be getting around about the record-low
snowpack in the mountains, which could create a shortage of
drinking water and even lead to problems for salmon swimming
upstream. Read about Gov. Jay Inslee’s expanded drought emergency, issued
today, as well as the last
update from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Kitsap Peninsula and the islands of Puget Sound are in their own
worlds, fairly insulated from what is happening in the higher
elevations. In these lower elevations, the key to water supplies is
rainfall, not snow, and the outlook for the year is normal so
far.
As you can see from the charts on this page (click to enlarge),
this year’s rainfall has been tracking closely the long-term
average. If the rains are light and steady, much of the water will
soak into the ground and recharge the aquifers where most area
residents get their water. The aquifer levels tend to rise and fall
over multiple years, depending on the rainfall.
Casad Dam on the Union River, which supplies a majority of
Bremerton’s water, filled in January, well ahead of schedule, said
Kathleen Cahall, water resources manager for the city. The dam is
scheduled for a normal drawdown, and Kathleen said she does not
expect any water shortage.
“We filled the reservoir fairly early this year,” she said. “We
are looking pretty good for the summer.”
October, the first month of the water year, was unusually wet,
Kathleen said. December precipitation also was high. The other
months were fairly normal for precipitation.
Precipitation in the Puget Sound region is expected to be below
average for June, July and August, according to models by the
NOAA’s Climate Prediction
Center. Interestingly, large portions of the Central and
Southwest U.S., Alaska and Florida can expect above-average
precipitation. See U.S. map.
Streams on the Kitsap Peninsula are fed by surface water flows
and shallow aquifers. At the moment, most of the streamflows are
near their historical average. That’s not the case for the larger
rivers in the Northwest, which rush out of the mountains. Most are
well below their normal flows, as shown by the map with the
dots.
Low streamflows usually mean higher temperatures and stress for
salmon. Low flows also can affect fish passage in some stretches of
the rivers while also reducing spawning areas.
While things look fairly good on the Kitsap Peninsula now,
things can change quickly. We have different vulnerabilities than
elsewhere. Climate-change models predict that rains will grow more
intense in the future without changing annual precipitation very
much. That means more of the water will run off the land and less
will soak in, potentially reducing aquifer levels over time.
Managing those underground water supplies will become more and more
critical.
It has been awhile since we did anything musically for “Amusing
Monday,” so I wandered around the World Wide Web and learned that
some people have compiled top-10 lists of their favorite
water-related songs.
Jonathan Kay, who works for KOR, felt compelled to create a
top-25 list of water tunes while working in a booth where he
promotes the company’s specially designed water bottles. Check out
the blog called “The
Water Advocate.”
Jonathan listed “Rain” by The Beatles as his top choice for
playing in the background while he made his sales pitch. Others
were: 2, “Sloop John B.” by the Beach Boys; 3, “Sittin’ on the Dock
of the Bay” by Otis Redding; 4, “Tide is High” by Blondie; and, 5,
“Beyond the Sea” by Bobby Darin.
Before I mention other song lists, I’d like to refer to a
website called Songfacts,
which compiles songs into dozens of categories and then tells you
about each song. Included are facts about the artists and the music
with links to the song on YouTube. You can also get the lyrics,
sheet music and ringtone, as well as information about purchasing
the song.
According to Songfacts, Ringo once said his best drumming was
done on “Rain,” which was the first song to use a tape played
backward for unusual audio effects. The fade-out vocals at the end
was the backwards version of the opening line, “When the rain comes
they run and hide their heads.” The rhythm track was played fast
and slowed down for the version we hear. It was also John’s first
song to explore themes of reality and illusion.
Songfacts lists more than
200 songs with weather conditions in the title, including lots
of songs with the word “rain” in them. The list includes six songs
titled simply “Rain.” In addition to the version by The Beatles,
there are “Rain” songs by:
Another song list with “Rain” in the title, which includes 30
songs, can be found on the website Epinions.com.
Aida Ekberg of Yahoo
Contributor Network compiled what she calls “30 songs about
rain that rock.” And Michelle Barlond-Smith has compiled 48 videos
on YouTube that address the issue of water.
Shifting categories, Jeff Opperman of The Nature Conservancy
created his top-10
list of river songs for World Water Day, led by Woody Guthrie’s
“Roll on Columbia,” Randy Newman’s “Burn On” and Johnny Cash’s
“Five Feet High and Rising.”
When Opperman asked for reader contributions, the top-10 list
started with “River” by Joni Mitchell tied with “Moon River” by
various artists. Next came “Down by the River” by Neil Young and
“Take Me to the River” by Talking Heads and others.
Other categories in Songfacts that include some water-related
songs:
With the weather we’ve had the past couple days, it’s hard to
forget the gusher of water coming down upon our heads and changing
the landscape in familiar places.
Kitsap Sun
photo
Of course, we can’t live without rain — especially if we wish to
remain The Evergreen State — but sometimes a little less of it
would do us well.
With our rampaging weather in mind, I’ve selected 20 quotes from
a variety of sources who apparently have given some thought to the
subject of rain.
1. A visit is like rainwater. You pray for it when it stays
away, and it’s a problem when it rains too much. — Hebrew
Proverb
2. A rainy day is the perfect time for a walk in the woods. —
Rachel Carson
3. Rain, rain, go away, come again another day. —
Traditional Proverb
4. I’m just waiting for people to start asking me to make the
rain disappear. — David Copperfield
5. Sunshine is delicious; rain is refreshing; wind braces us up;
snow is exhilarating. There is really no such thing as bad weather,
only different kinds of good weather. — John Ruskin
6. A poet is someone who stands outside in the rain hoping to be
struck by lightning. — James Dickey
7. And when it rains on your parade, look up rather than down.
Without the rain, there would be no rainbow. — Jerry
Chin
8. Into each life some rain must fall. — Henry Wadsworth
Longfellow
9. Let the rain kiss you. Let the rain beat upon your head with
silver liquid drops. Let the rain sing you a lullaby. —
Langston Hughes
10. All was silent as before, all silent save the dripping rain.
— Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
11. He who marries on a rainy day will be happy for the rest of
his life. — French Proverb
12. A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely
promise won’t come true. — Ray Evans
13. Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced
in the rain. — Author unknown
14. Those who profess to favour freedom, and deprecate
agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground,
they want rain without thunder and lightning. — Frederick
Douglass
15. Criticism, like rain, should be gentle enough to nourish a
man’s growth without destroying his roots. — Frank A.
Clark
16. Giving advice to the ignorant is like the rain falling on
muddy ground. — Iranian Proverb
17. A banker is a man who lends you an umbrella when the weather
is fair, and takes it away from you when it rains. — Author
unknown
18. Remember even though the outside world might be raining, if
you keep on smiling the sun will soon show its face and smile back
at you. — Anna Lee
19. The way I see it, if you want the rainbow, you gotta put up
with the rain. When I’m inspired, I get excited because I can’t
wait to see what I’ll come up with next. Find out who you are and
do it on purpose. — Dolly Parton
20. I can see clearly now; the rain is gone. I can see all
obstacles in my way.
— Johnny Nash
