I’m always looking for new ways to visualize the causes and
effects of excessive greenhouse gases and what is happening to the
Earth’s climate. A clever new animation depicts the carbon cycle as
a clickety-clackety machine that moves the carbon from place to
place.
The video, produced by Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural
History, shows how carbon takes on different forms as it moves from
the air into plants and animals, becomes embedded deep in the
ground and then is turned into fuel at a pace that upsets the
natural cycle. (Don’t forget to go full-screen.)
“Humans have thrown the carbon cycle out of adjustment, with
increasingly severe consequences for climate, oceans and
ecosystems,” states the description below the YouTube video.
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, capable of trapping far
more heat than the same amount carbon dioxide, at least in the
short term. This week, I point you to some new studies regarding
the release of methane and news about a potential showdown between
state and federal governments over fuel-economy standards.
Methane, the primary component of natural gas, is not well
understood by many people. Methane can absorb more than 100 times
as much energy as an equal weight of carbon dioxide, experts say,
but methane breaks down in the atmosphere over time, so the effect
of releasing a ton of methane actually decreases as time goes
on.
Graphic: Environmental
Protection Agency
Methane’s “global warming potential,” or GWP, is said to be
28-36 times higher than CO2 when considering the effects over 100
years — so methane is regarded as a major contributor to climate
change. Check out the explanation of GWP by the
Environmental Protection Agency.
Sources of methane are widespread — from vegetation naturally
decomposing in wetlands to incidental releases during natural gas
production and transport. Figuring out the amount of methane coming
from various sources has been a puzzle for climate scientists.
In 50 years, Puget Sound residents will see mostly the same
plants and animals they see today, but some changes can be
expected. Our favorite species may disappear from places where they
are now common.
Climate change is expected to bring higher temperatures, shifts
in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels and ocean
acidification. Some species will no doubt cope where they are. Some
will not. Some could move to more hospitable locales, perhaps
farther north or to higher elevations in the mountains.
“There are going to be some winners and some losers,” research
biologist Correigh Greene told me. His comment seemed to sum up the
situation nicely, and I used this quote in the final installment of
a three-part series I wrote for the
Puget Sound Institute and the Encyclopedia of Puget Sound.
What stands out in my mind is how Puget Sound’s food web could
be disrupted in unexpected ways. For example, tiny shelled
organisms — key prey for many fish species — are already dying
because they cannot form healthy shells. And that’s just one effect
of ocean acidification.
The observations mentioned in my story and in the report itself
come from a variety of experts who understand the needs of various
species — from those that live in the water to those dependent on
snow in the mountains. What will actually happen on the ground
depends on many variables — from the buildup of greenhouse gases to
changing trends such as El Nino.
As things are going, it appears that this year will be the
warmest on record. The global average surface temperature is
expected to reach the symbolic milestone of 1 degree Celsius above
the pre-industrial era, according to the World Meteorological
Organization. The years 2011 through 2015 have been the warmest
five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events
influenced by climate change, according to a
five-year analysis by WMO.
The new report from the Climate Impacts Group discusses various
scenarios based on total emissions of greenhouse gases. High
scenarios presume that emissions will continue as they are now. Low
scenarios presume that people will dramatically reduce emissions.
What will actually happen is unpredictable at this time.
Greenhouse gas emissions are used to predict carbon dioxide
concentrations in the atmosphere, ultimately pushing up the average
global temperature. The first graph below shows the range of annual
emissions (in gigatons of carbon) depicted by the various
scenarios. The next graph shows how the emissions translate into
atmospheric concentration. One can take any of the scenarios and
see how the levels translate into temperatures at the end of the
century. For a more complete explanation, go to page 19 of the
report, where these graphs can be found.
Ocean acidification is hitting Washington’s shellfish industry
even before we begin to experience the full effects of climate
change, and Gov. Chris Gregoire placed this state in the forefront
of action Tuesday when she signed an executive order on the
issue.
The order supports the findings of the governor’s Blue Ribbon
Panel on Ocean Acidification. Check out the story I wrote for
yesterday’s Kitsap Sun.
The panel released the report during an hour-long presentation
of the findings. If you have time, I recommend watching the
informative presentation, provided by TVW in the player at
right.
The executive summary of the report, as well as the full report,
its appendices and the governor’s order, can be downloaded from
panel’s
webpage on the Washington Department of Ecology website.
Gregoire’s order is considered the first state-level action on
ocean acidification — and that has attracted attention from across
the country. For example, stories were written by environmental
reporter Juliet Eilperin of the
Washington Post and by Virginia Gewin of
Nature magazine.
Ocean acidification has been called the “evil twin” of global
warming, because the effects can be more swift and more severe than
gradual warming of the Earth. That’s not to discount other serious
effects of climate change, including increased frequency of severe
storms, sea level rise with increasing flooding, and heat waves
with crippling effects on agriculture. But acidification affects
organisms at the base of the entire food web.
The effects of ocean acidification will not be reversed for a
long, long time, even if greenhouse gas emissions are brought under
control. The upwelling of old water along the coast brings this
problem right to our doorstep now and for the foreseeable
future.
The shift from coal to natural gas, along with the downturn in
the economy, has significantly reduced emissions of carbon dioxide
in this country the past couple years, but the levels of
atmospheric greenhouse gases continue to go up.
“Climate change is taking place before our eyes and will
continue to do so as a result of the concentrations of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again
reached new records,” said Michel Jarraud, secretary-general for
the World Meteorological Association, in a
press release issued yesterday.
The WMA reported that the years 2001–2011 were all among the
warmest on record, and it appears that 2012 will continue the
trend, despite a cooling influence from La Niña early this
year.
“Naturally occurring climate variability due to phenomena such
as El Niño and La Niña impact on temperatures and precipitation on
a seasonal to annual scale,” Jarraud said. “But they do not alter
the underlying long-term trend of rising temperatures due to
climate change as a result of human activities.
“The extent of Arctic sea ice reached a new record low. The
alarming rate of its melt this year highlighted the far-reaching
changes taking place on Earth’s oceans and biosphere,” he
added.
Environmental correspondent Alister Doyle reported today for
Reuters that the United Nations Panel on Climate Change now
believes that it is more certain than ever that humans are the
primary cause of global warming.
In its 2007 report, the panel pegged the certainty at more than
90 percent. Now, it appears likely that the scientists will
increase that certainty in the next report in 2013, said Rajendra
Pachauri, head of the panel who spoke with Doyle at a climate
conference in Qatar.
“We certainly have a substantial amount of information available
by which I hope we can narrow the gaps, increase the level of
certainty of our findings,” he said, adding that analyses also will
increase the predicted rate of sea-level rise.
Meanwhile, the “Draft National Ocean Policy and Implementation
Plan” is still undergoing review by the National Ocean Council. The
report contains a chapter called
“Resiliency and Adaptation to Climate Change and Ocean
Acidification” (PDF 732 kb). That chapter contains some of the
same recommendations offered by Washington state’s Blue Ribbon
Panel, but the state plan is more specific and comes with a
recommended $3.3 million budget to begin work on the problem.
U.S. Rep. Doc Hastings of Washington, chairman of the House
Natural Resources Committee, is attempting to derail the plan,
saying it creates an unnecessary bureaucracy and asserts federal
controls not approved by Congress. Read the
news release about House action against the plan.
I have not talked to anyone on the council lately, but it
appears that President Obama’s election campaign over the past year
effectively derailed any movement on this issue. In his first press
conference after the election, he pledged to jump-start the
climate-change effort, but no mention was made of the ocean policy.
Review the video below at 42:20.
The atmosphere that existed on Earth some 2.7 billion years ago
can be understood a little better by examining the fossil record
created when raindrops fell into volcanic ash so very long ago.
A South African meerkat
sits on a volcanic rock where raindrops left an impression 2.7
billion years ago.
Photo courtesy of Wlady Altermann, University of
Pretoria
Using impressions left by falling raindrops, University of
Washington researchers have deduced that the atmospheric pressure
back then was not so different from today but that greenhouse gases
were probably causing the Earth to heat up considerably.
It was a time in the Earth’s geologic history when plants and
animals did not yet exist but microbes were common.
The findings, published yesterday in
“Nature,” provides new information in the search for life on
other planets.
I was awakened early this morning by the sound of gusty winds
blowing millions of raindrops against the side of my house. As I
lay in the dark, for once I was not thinking about how much I yearn
for spring weather to replace our ongoing gloom. Instead, I was
thinking about how the rains have endured, realizing that it was
raining on Earth long before the most primitive plants and animals
could benefit from the falling water.
Our mystery of the ancient raindrops begins with a long-held
understanding that during those early days on Earth, the sun was
burning about 30 percent dimmer than today, according to
information provided by Vince Stricherz of the UW’s
Office of News and Information. Other things being equal, the
Earth would have been encrusted in ice. But geologic evidence shows
that rivers were flowing across the surface.
Business and environmental groups have been waiting for the
other shoe to drop since Gov. Chris Gregoire announced that she was
suspending state rule-making activities. Her declared motive was to
provide small businesses “stability and predictability they need to
help with our state’s recovery.”
Regulations may continue through the rule-making process if they
are:
Required by federal or state law or required to maintain
federally delegated or authorized programs;
Required by court order;
Necessary to manage budget shortfalls, maintain fund solvency,
or for revenue generating activities;
Necessary to protect public health, safety, and welfare or
necessary to avoid an immediate threat to the state’s natural
resources;
Beneficial to or requested or supported by the regulated
entities, local governments or small businesses that it
affects;
The subject of negotiated rule-making or pilot rule-making that
involved substantial participation by interested parties before the
development of the proposed rule;
A permanent rule previously covered by emergency rules; or
An expedited rule under RCW 34.05.353 where the proposed rules
relate only to internal governmental operations.
Let’s face it. To really understand what this means, we must
wait for the list of regulations that will actually be placed on
hold for the next year or more. On environmental issues, both
business leaders and environmental activists have interpreted
Gregoire’s move as a relaxation of her aggressive environmental
policies. But how far that will go is yet to be seen. Remember, she
said recently that we cannot take a time-out on saving Puget Sound,
recession or not. (See
Water Ways, Oct. 21)
Each agency must report by the end of January which rules they
want to suspend and which they want to keep moving through the
process, along with justifications for their decisions.
Almost immediately after Gregoire’s executive order was
announced, Washington Department of Ecology posted a list of
six rules that will proceed. They are related to greenhouse gas
reporting, air pollution sources, Water Pollution Control Revolving
Fund, Upper Kittitas groundwater management, and chemicals of
concern in children’s toys.
At the end of this blog entry, I’ve listed all the Ecology
regulations now moving through the pipeline.
Washington House Republicans credited Rep. Ed Orcutt, R-Kalama,
with coming up with the idea of suspending state regulations. In
August, Orcutt sent a
letter asking Gregoire to suspend all regulations except for
those related to health emergencies and fishing and hunting
seasons. Continue reading →
