Newsweek is reporting that both presidential
campaigns’ computer systems were hacked by an unknown foreign
entity.
Officials at the FBI and the White House told the Obama campaign
that they believed a foreign entity or organization sought to
gather information on the evolution of both camps’ policy
positions—information that might be useful in negotiations with a
future administration. The Feds assured the Obama team that it had
not been hacked by its political opponents.
This story is fascinating to me and it’s one that I hope gets
more attention in the following weeks. Then again, we shouldn’t be
clamoring for facts until we have someone to blame. Continue reading →
Walt Washington, the apparent victor in the Kitsap County
Auditor’s race, was among the many who called tonight’s win for
Barack Obama “historic.” He didn’t think Obama would win by as much
as he did. This election, he said, will be a life-changer for many
Americans.
Washington was able to see McCain’s concession scpeech, of which
he said, “He was the real McCain. That was the McCain I liked and
admired. He was the McCain I thought he always was.”
Believe it or not, I’ve been out of the national loop for the
last three hours. I missed both speeches, because I did have the
whole covering a few local races thing to attend to. Now that I’ve
been able to look bigger, I was surprised by a few things.
That Obama won follows what the polls had been telling us. I
can’t find a single state that was projected to go blue that
didn’t. As I write this, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri and
Montana are yet to be called. Montana going red would surprise me.
It did surprise me that Obama won Ohio, Virginia and Florida. I
guessed he might get one. I guessed that he’d win, but I expected
the polls to be wrong somewhere.
At first glance it looks like Democrats did better tonight than
they did in the August primaries. That is surprising for now, but
if you recall Republicans did better with the later ballots. If
that holds true this time, too, expected some gaps to close.
That Gregoire is ahead in the state, with so many King County
votes yet to count, is amazing. I don’t know the context yet.
Apparently some of the networks have already called the race for
her. Perhaps the later numbers in other counties will close the
gap, but I can’t see Rossi overcoming the numbers. Note that I say
“I can’t see” it. I’m acknowledging that there may be something I’m
missing. Consider this: Rossi won Kitsap County in 2004. As of
tonight, Gregoire’s up by 5 percentage points here.
About 500 votes, all Kitsap County votes, separate Jan Angel and
Kim Abel. Pierce County is yet to come in. You wonder, is the
Pierce contingent of this district more conservative, or will the
Obama coattails get Abel the win?
A few days ago I wrote how we could know by
5:15 p.m. who won. We don’t know yet. That’s because no one’s
calling Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, and as one that I would add,
Florida. I’m adding Florida late, because those numbers might be in
before Indiana and Virginia. Before I wrote that if Obama wins Ohio
and one of the other two, it’s over. I had Florida, hypothetically
going to McCain. If Florida goes to Obama and any of the other
states do, it’s over. In that scenario, though, I had McCain taking
all leaning states. Obama just picked up Minnesota and Wisconsin.
It may not be over, but there are absolutely no surprises yet. It
looks like it’s Obama’s night.
I’m checking a ton of sites tonight before I go hang with the
Democrats in Silverdale.
Kitsap Sun columnist Lawrence Little is monitoring a polling
place in Puyallup today on behalf of the John McCain campaign. On
Sunday night he wrote the following:
Sunday Night, November 2, 2008
A Sobering Ballot
Two days to go and the going is getting rough. The polls are
tightening in many races, but the reality is that the only poll
that counts are valid marks on those ballots in the ballot box.
So–that is where much of the action is now focused, on the ballots,
those you have or will return, and for counties where one still
goes to a polling place to cast a vote, a whole lot of poll
watching. Continue reading →
That Republican legislative candidates Randy Neatherlin and Jan
Angel would allow insurance companies to not cover mammograms was
news to both of them.
It was also news to Democrat Kim Abel that, given the chance,
she’ll always vote for the highest property taxes possible.
Peter Callaghan at the (Tacoma) News Tribune had fun with the subject matter.
A perennial favorite is to link candidates to felons, especially
sex offenders. State Democrats sent mail into the 47th District
featuring a picture of a grade school-aged girl walking warily past
a car with a man who appears to be calling to her.
“Because we need a state representative who cracks down on sex
offenders, not a politician supported by one,” it asserts. What?
Republican Mark Hargrove received a contribution from an activist
and former candidate who later was caught up in an Internet sting
soliciting sex with a 15-year-old.
A Republican committee pulled the same trick on Rasmussen,
complete with a picture of a scared-looking girl. Her misdeed? She
is in the Legislature, and the state releases sex offenders who
complete their prison terms.
Here are some questions for you to ponder the day before the
election or during election day before the results come out. I’ll
stop allowing comments at 8 p.m. Tuesday.
1. Will any of the five incumbent legislators representing
Kitsap lose? Who and why?
2. Who will win, Abel or Angel? Why?
3. Who will win, Finn or Neatherlin? Why?
4. Who will win, Garrido or Matthes? Why?
5. Two incumbents were appointed. Will Steve Bauer hang on to
his county commissioner seat against Sandra Lacelle?
6. Will Walt Washington hang on to his county auditor seat
against John Clark?
7. On election night Dino Rossi will have the lead over Chris
Gregoire. That’s because King County only expects to be able to
count about a quarter of its absentee votes on
election night. In the end, who wins?
Watch this, if you’ve got five minutes, before reading the stuff
below it.
When I saw this I thought it was funny, but some of it struck me
as concessionary, if that’s the right way to use that term. To some
degree it seemed like he was admitting the race was over. I
couldn’t figure out why until I watched it again. It happens
towards the end, when Palin goes rogue.
If someone impersonating McCain had been in the skit, then it
would have been nothing but funny. With McCain being in a skit in
which Palin is going off on her own is lending credence to a theory
that isn’t helpful to his campaign. The rest of his appearance
seemed fine. He was on Weekend Update and talked about going
reverse and double Maverick. That was funny.
I could be wrong. I read the comments on the New York Times
The Caucus blog and almost everyone gave it
credit for being funny, which I do to. There was also a lot of
this:
clever and funny. God bless john mcain. but I siill ain’t votin’
for him.
— Edward A Mabin
There was at least one who saw it the way I did:
He should have done this frivolous activity two months back when
the lead of Obama was managable.Now it’s only accepting the reality
od impending defeat and pretending to laugh it off.
Tim Matthes, Republican candidate for
county commissioner against Democrat Charlotte Garrido, sent this
question out on the back of one of his ads. The answer on the
reverse is “Soon!”
We drew attention to Garrido’s spanish ad earlier. Had she taken
that tack on this kind of ad it would have read, “Me preguntaba
¿Cuándo estas tonterías políticas habrán terminado?”
The main objective in the excercise below was to see what it
would take to know with a large degree of certainty that Barack
Obama or John McCain had won the election by 6 p.m. Polls will
close on the East Coast by 5 p.m. To come to a clear conclusion I
used the L.A. Times interactive maps below to make the case. For
Obama, I took every leaning or toss-up state west of the Eastern
Time Zone and gave it to McCain. That includes Florida and Indiana,
because portions of those states are in the Central Time Zone.
Here’s what you get for Obama under that scenario:
The three states listed as up-for grabs or only leaning for
Obama on the East are Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. If Obama
wins Ohio and one of the other states, he wins. If Ohio is not in
the mix, it’s not certain.
Now for McCain:
If you do the same thing, go west of first time zone, give Obama
all the states considered toss-ups or only leaning, McCain loses by
a lot no matter what happens on the East Coast. Remember, we’re
dealing with how to be certain before the next round of polls
close. So to get to a number he could win at given that scenario,
we have to take everything away from Obama on the East, then give
back states in the order of the largest projected margin of victory
for Obama so far, until we arrive at the number at which Obama
would get just under the 269 electoral votes he needs. Under that
scenario, Obama gets the district, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts
and Connecticut back. Throw in Delaware because of Joe Biden and
Obama gets 268. So if McCain wins Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode
Island, New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, West
Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina, you’ll know with little
reason for uncertainty before the next round of polls closing that
he won the nation.
Remember folks, we’re dealing with sure knowledge here, not best
chances or probabilities. We’re talking about 5:15, not 6:15. So if
Obama wins Ohio and either North Carolina or Virginia, it’s over.
If McCain wins all the 11 states listed above, it’s over. Anything
less than those two things or a surprise in what was thought to be
certainty in one or East Coast two states and we’ll be fixed to the
television and the computer for much longer that night. Not like in
2000. Probably not even like 2004.
Late last week I invited (You can read the invitation at the
bottom of this post.) members of the Kitsap Sun Sounding Board to
address any of you who might be undecided about who to vote for or
whether to vote at all.
Here are their responses in the order they arrived in my “In”
box.
I just received this from David Ammons from the Secretary of
State’s office.
A King County judge has dismissed a case challenging Senator
Obama’s “native-born” status and thus his right to be on the ballot
in Washington state. A federal judge in Philadelphia dismissed a
similar lawsuit Friday night. Jeff Even of the state attorney
general’s office represented our office. The state election,
already underway, continues, with the Obama-Biden ticket listed as
the first ticket among the choices, since Senator Kerry won the
state four years ago. Ballot order is spelled out in state law.
There are eight tickets on the Washington ballot.
Originally posted 1:40 p.m. on Oct. 22: First I
heard of this story was on Jerry Cornfield’s blog over at the (Everett)
Herald. A Snohomish County resident wanted Barack Obama
disqualified from the Washington ballot for president because Obama
hasn’t proven to the plaintiff’s satisfaction that he was born in
the United States. Continue reading →
I asked members of the Kitsap Sun Sounding Board, a group of
Kitsap (mostly) residents who are participating in our election
coverage, to write short messages to anyone who’s undecided. When
you wake up in the morning, they’ll be posted here.
Cathy Sorbo at the Seattle Post-Intelligencer is a comedian by
trade and a columnist on Saturdays. She asked governor candidates
Chris Gregoire and Dino Rossi the kind of questions the rest of us are afraid
to ask. For example:
Favorite item to take home from hotels:
CG: Minitoiletries. Our family donates them to domestic violence
shelters.
DR: Shoe polish mitt.
I have to admit, when I first read Gregoire’s answer I thought
it said her family “detonates” the toiletries. That’s what my
family does.
Sorbo also fed the questions to congressional candidate Darcy
Burner. Dave Reichert declined to participate. What are you hiding
Reichert? My guess is he didn’t want to answer anything about his
toenails. I bet he let his kids paint O-B-A-M-A on them.
Information about Gregoire’s visit has been updated.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi will be in
Silverdale today at the community center at 11:45 a.m. The local
party is saying a reporter from the Washington Post might be there.
That’s a reflection of how close this race appears to be.
Democrat Gov. Chris Gregoire will be at a Veterans event at the
VFW Post 239 in Bremerton at 2:15 p.m. Then, she’ll be in
downtown Poulsbo at 3:30 at Poulsbo City Hall. Afterward she’s
driving to the Bainbridge Ferry to go over to Seattle.
The Los Angeles Times reports that 22 states are
experiencing budget problems in a story that doesn’t mention
Washington by name. Actually, the story cites a Center on Budget
and Policy Priorities study that comes up with the list.
“States have been confronted with bad economic circumstances in
the past, but never so many states, all at once,” said William T.
Pound, executive director of the National Conference of State
Legislatures.
There’s a reason Washington isn’t mentioned. It’s not on the
list. That’s because this is a list that appears to include states
that have made specific mid-year adjustments or called for special
sessions to address shortfalls. Why Washington is not on that list,
when the governor did a hiring freeze and other things, I’m not
sure. I’ve called for clarification.
So that says something that you have 22 states mentioned as
having mid-year budget issues and Washington is not in the list. I
think what it’s saying is Washington doesn’t fall into a narrow set
of criteria. It’s also saying there are not many states not being
affected by the poor economy. By no means does it mean Washington
isn’t having budget problems.
In fact, if you go to the organization’s
press release, Washington is among 14 states that have looked
ahead and guessed there will be future financial issues.
I’ve called the center to get clarification on the specific list
of 22.
We don’t draw too much attention to candidate advertising. We
try not to. We figure folks can get those ads out there where they
are willing to pay for it. If an ad is inflammatory or uses our
name incorrectly, we might draw attention to that.
This is different
Kitsap County commissioner candidate Charlotte Garrido is
reaching out to an audience that I don’t remember any other
candidate specifically targeting in the past. Correct me if I’m
wrong about that.
Garrido has a television advertisement in Spanish.
That’s what the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in
Journalism is saying.
It isn’t so much that the media loves Obama as much as the affair
with McCain is clearly over.
Those who believe the media is leading the cheers for Obama
won’t like this one:
One question likely to be posed is whether these findings
provide evidence that the news media are pro-Obama. Is there some
element in these numbers that reflects a rooting by journalists for
Obama and against McCain, unconscious or otherwise? The data do not
provide conclusive answers. They do offer a strong suggestion that
winning in politics begat winning coverage, thanks in part to the
relentless tendency of the press to frame its coverage of national
elections as running narratives about the relative position of the
candidates in the polls and internal tactical maneuvering to alter
those positions. Obama’s coverage was negative in tone when he was
dropping in the polls, and became positive when he began to rise,
and it was just so for McCain as well. Nor are these numbers
different than what we have seen before. Obama’s numbers are
similar to what we saw for John Kerry four years ago as he began
rising in the polls, and McCain’s numbers are almost identical to
what we saw eight years ago for Democrat Al Gore.
Let me go on the record here, for those of you complaining there
hasn’t been enough made out of Biden’s “mettle” comment, I probably
agree. I’d like to see more digging into that.
The New York Times offers the most helpful way to
determine whose numbers are closer to the truth when it comes to
health plans offered by Barack Obama and John McCain. First here’s
the problem:
Even the economists behind the forecasts say it makes them
uncomfortable to hear candidates assert their numbers as
indisputable fact, as if stating Derek Jeter’s batting
average. What they are modeling, they emphasize, is ultimately
unknowable. And the transformational nature of both candidates’
health care plans means that they can only guess at the future
behavior of consumers, employers and insurers.
So here’s your solution:
A number of economists said voters would be wise to simply tune
out all of the competing numbers and focus instead on the
philosophical underpinnings of the candidates’ plans. Indeed, Dr.
Reinhardt offered voters the same instruction he delivers to his
students, that economics as practiced in the political arena is
often “just ideology marketed in the guise of science.”
Tim Matthes, Republican candidate for
county commissioner against Democrat Charlotte Garrido, sent this
question out on the back of one of his ads. The answer on the
reverse is “Soon!”