If the month of January were trying out for “American Weather
Idol,” I have a feeling Simon Cowell would not have let it go
through to the next round. In fact, January has, by and large, left
the Cascade and Olympic snowpacks between 45 and 65 percent of
normal.
But the next contestant for American Weather Idol is February
and, at least according to current long range trends, this month
will likely be singing a different (and lovelier) tune:
The latest long range forecast from the Climate Prediction
Center is showing a 40% chance of below normal temperatures in the
next two weeks with near normal precipitation, which almost always
translates to snow at high elevations (and sometimes lower
elevations) this time of year.
So what is causing this dramatic shift in weather patterns?
We had a massive ridge of high pressure over our region for
weeks on end, pushing the jet stream far to our north into B.C.
That ridge is slowly disintegrating, and a series of fairly
rigorous and cold low pressure systems look to plow into our
region, making for a much soggier weather pattern.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the east coast will catch a break,
however. Much of the northern U.S. will be caught in a pretty
chilly and moist weather pattern through at least the middle of
February.
Will we see any lowland snow before winter is over? That’s a
tough call, but if the long range forecasts have any clout, we
should at least see some snowflakes in the air before spring has
sprung.
Have a great day,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail Matt Leach at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Christmas Day Snow, 2012 in
Seabeck. Photo by Don Geidel
Alright, I have put this off long enough! Time to do my yearly
ritual of witchcraft–erm, I mean, long range forecasting.
Let’s make this clear from the beginning: There are many
variables to consider when making a forecast that extends months
into the future; weather forecasters struggle enough to get
tomorrow’s forecast right. Among the most popular ways to determine
long term trends are ocean temperatures, which can play a
significant role in what kinds of land temperatures and
precipitation will be most prominent during a given season.
At the present, the north Pacific Ocean is in a cold phase,
which has correlated to cooler, more active weather for the
West in the past, but isn’t necessarily a determining factor.
In addition, the equatorial Pacific can give us an even clearer
look into general seasonal weather patterns, from the development
of an El Nino event, which leads to warmer and drier conditions for
the Pacific Northwest, or a La Nina pattern, which brings colder
and wetter weather. Unfortunately, neither of those patterns
will be able to help in this year’s forecast because we are
witnessing the rise of what is unofficially known as La Nada.
That’s right: no warm signals and certainly no cold signals. It’s
no wonder meteorologist call this pattern a “wild card”.
ANALOGS
Let’s revisit what analogs are and why they might be useful in
constructing a forecast.
Analogs are past years that exhibit some similar weather
activity to the current year, and as a result weather forecasters
try to match up the past with the present to see if there’s
some type of correlation or pattern occurring. More often than not
it’s just a guide, but sometimes history does repeat itself.
Other reliable pieces of data essential for producing a long
range forecast is the ONI, or Oceanic Nino Index to track what El
Nino, La Nina or neutral years in the past match up similarly to
the present day. The records I have go all the way back to
1950. Solar activity can be another major factor to the weather
over the years, but I haven’t weighted that heavily enough in my
forecast mainly because of the lack of data. Lastly, I used the PDO
readings (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) to finalize my findings.
Here are some of the top corresponding years:
2012 (interestingly enough)
1990
1978
If any of you remember the winters of 2012-2013, 1990-1991 or
1978-1979, you will recall that there’s a healthy mix of benign
weather (dry, mild, no snow) and awesome
weather (arctic intrusions, buckets of snow). As it so
happens, that’s probably the best description of what to expect
this winter.
DECEMBER
2013
There are some strong signals indicating December will, once
again, provide us with some of the best opportunities for some
chilly weather, but perhaps not the most ideal for snow. The
reemergence of a pretty healthy ridge will limit the amount of
precipitation we receive, but not for long. After a generally
pleasant beginning to the month, there are signs that the jet
stream will gradually begin to sag south and west, bringing in a
decent shot of cold and moist weather. Could this result in a
repeat of last years white Christmas event? The chances are, of
course, very low, but it looks like we could at least be heading in
the right direction. Temperatures will average a couple degrees
below normal with precipitation right around average, if not a
little below.
JANUARY
2014
January, as a whole, looks downright chilly for most of the
country, with very little in the way of temperature fluctuations.
An active jet stream and negative PNA (Pacific/North American
teleconnection pattern) should also increase the mount of
storminess on the West Coast with plenty of mountain snow and
several shots at lowland snow. This doesn’t look like a pattern
conducive to too many “Pineapple Express” systems, however, so
precipitation likely won’t exceed average by much if at all. The
coldest and stormiest periods will be between the 1st and the 15th
with a gradual change for the drier by the end of the month.
FEBRUARY
2014
February, as has been typical in the Northwest for quite some
time, will be drier than normal, but this time with a twist: It
also looks a bit chillier than normal. This will be primarily due
to cold overnight low temperatures, as most daytime temperatures
should average at or slightly above normal. The most active weather
will be found further east as the PNA shifts to a positive phase
and the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, takes a plunge.
However, it looks like we could run into a few “overrunning” events
along the Hood Canal as we switch to some milder weather towards
the end of the month.
MARCH
2014
After a chilly start, we’ll likely see fairly tranquil
conditions be the dominant feature through March with below normal
precipitation. In fact, we could see some record high temperatures
towards the end of the month.
So there you have it! A pretty cold and active beginning to
winter with a gradual change to milder and drier weather. We’ll
check back in once spring rolls around to see how I did.
Have a great weekend, and stay warm!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail Matt Leach at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
June has started off on a mild and sunnier-than-normal note,
with high temperatures soaring into the low 70s. It felt even
warmer due to the fact we’ve been sitting a good 10 to 15 degrees
below or seasonal average.
The first day of summer officially starts on Friday, June 21st,
but meteorologists…ahem…don’t really care about the sun’s
position and what solstice is what or what equinox is what. Maybe
it’s because I already have a bias, but the meteorological
understanding of seasons just makes a little more sense, hence the
“logical” part of the word 😉
Meteorologists define seasons more by temperature and weather.
Warm–or even downright hot–weather occurs before the first official
day of summer every year. Our nation begins to experience
its warmest temperatures by late May/early June, so to make it
easy, meteorologists dubbed meteorological summer as June 1st.
September 1st is meteorological autumn (fall), as temperatures
overall begin to take a downward trend and may northern states
experience their first frosts.
December 1st is meteorological winter, as temperatures and
weather have long expressed their snowy and cold attitudes by
then.
March 1st is meteorological spring, because by this point most
temperatures begin trending upward.
This makes it easy for all of us. You don’t need to check the
calendar as often to know which season it is! But I suppose for the
sake of most of the world, we’ll keep things the way they are 🙂 For
more information on these seasonal variations, click
here.
You’ll be glad to know that even though the first official day
of summer isn’t for another few weeks, Mother Nature will play
along with the notion it actually started today. Therefore, expect
morning clouds Sunday and Monday with clearing skies and high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
We warm even more for Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge of high
pressure continues to build offshore. This will fling temperatures
into the mid to upper 70s…maybe even–dare I say it–80 degrees!
We cool off a little by the end of next week, but the ridge
rebuilds by next weekend bringing more sunshine and mild
temperatures along with it. Yay for meteorological summer! 🙂
Have a fantastic weekend,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
What a wet Wednesday morning! Luckily things have begun to taper
off, but not without achieving an impressive .25” of rain in the
past 12 hours.
By the time March rolls around, we start to say things like,
“Well, surely the snow can’t stick around much longer. Winter is
nearly at its end!” And then after a few more bouts with snow,
especially in and around the convergence zone, we tell ourselves,
“This is the last one. I’m sure of it!” Of course, by April snow is
a thing of history.
We’re sort of experiencing that same attitude here with cold,
rainy days. Surely it will end soon, right?
April and May are the transition months from relentless rain to
glorious Northwest sun. In fact, our summers are typically
very dry in comparison to our winters. July averages only
0.86” of rain, which is less than we’ve experienced in the past 3
days! With that said, today will be the last real soaker in a
while.
Forecasting models have been fighting over whether we’ll
experience periods of troughing through the weekend (cooler weather
with sprinkles) or ridging (warmer weather with sunshine). Either
way, after Thursday it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing much in
the way of any rain.
Therefore, after Thursdays showers and sunbreaks, expect partly
to mostly sunny skies from Friday through the weekend and into next
week. Morning clouds and drizzle will definitely be a consistent
pattern, but with the afternoon clearing high temperatures should
manage to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. This should make the
upcoming weekend the nicest we’ve seen in at least two weeks!
In fact, the long range forecast models indicate we won’t be
seeing much in the way of steady rain for several more weeks. This
certainly makes sense, because just as March and April feature less
and less in the way of snow showers, June and July feature less and
less in the way of rain showers.
Stay tuned for Saturday’s blog post, which will discuss what
“meteorological summer” is all about.
Have a great day!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
We don’t have to dig too far in our long term memory to remember
Easter weekend’s fantastic string of weather. Sunny weather and
highs in the mid to upper 60s graced the region from the 29th to
the 31st of March, with some areas reaching 70.
But for some of us, just barely hitting 70 degrees isn’t good
enough. So why don’t we crank it up a notch?
First of all, a growing ridge of high pressure is building over
the west coast, resulting in warmer weather and drier conditions
over the next 6-10 days. In fact, there’s about a 50% chance of
having warmer than average temperatures by this time next week. But
the fun doesn’t end there. The 2 week projections look the
same:
Indeed, it appears we may run through the rest of April with
above normal temperatures. But just how much above normal could we
get?
It’s not wise to take forecasting models too seriously, as they
are prone to change quickly, but this time of year dramatic changes
in a weeks time isn’t as common as it is in the winter. I think
it’s fair to forecast, with relative certainty, two things:
In about 7 days, we’ll be seeing a lot more 70s popping up
around the area under sunny skies
This string of 70 degree weather will likely last for a total
of about 7 days before cooling off slightly to the upper 50s to mid
60s into early May.
This is the mid spring pattern Western Washington is famous for.
It’s the kind of weather we call “perfect”. In the short term, we
still have several cool-ish weather systems to trudge through, but
it looks like once we get past the muck for a week, we’ll be on our
way to near-perfection.
Until then, stay warm and dry out there!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Although our little corner of the world has enjoyed nothing but
sunny skies and unseasonably mild temperatures lately, many areas
across our marvelous country can’t quite say the same.
In fact, according to a news release from AccuWeather.com, as of
March 25th, nearly 50% of the nation was still covered in snow,
which is a dramatic increase compared to this time last year:
It has no doubt been a stormy and somewhat snowy winter across
much of the U.S., but not everyone expected it to turn out that
way. I’m sure many of you remember the “El Nino scare of 2012,”
when many of us (or maybe just me?) started to worry we wouldn’t
have a lot of snow and would therefore be subject to drought
conditions come summer time.
But the mountain snow pack report as of March 1st reveals
there’s actually very little to worry about:
It also appears the water supply is right on track:
Then again, we also had a very different winter than most of
Western Washington. Kitsap County experienced an anomalously snowy
first half of winter, with some areas such as Seabeck and Cushman
receiving as much as 30 inches of snow in December.
So disregarding our rather lame end to winter, it was a wet,
snowy season over much of the country. And I guess at the end of
the day, snow fell where it really mattered: In the mountains.
Have a great day,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
The long-anticipated, long range forecast is here!
There are only so many ways to describe a rainy forecast, so you
can imagine my excitement upon finding the long range predictions
for the next 6-10 days look increasingly drier and cooler.
Then again, what does “drier” and “cooler” look like? Knowing
March’s typical trends around here, it probably means cloudy skies,
light rain and highs in the mid to upper 40s. But is that really
good news?
In my
weather discussion on the Kitsap Sun homepage today, I
discussed how we are actually running a few inches behind in the
precipitation department. We’ve only managed 7 inches of rain since
January 1st, whereas we should be closer to 12. In fact, it appears
we may actually make it three months in a row with below normal
precipitation, according to the 8-14 day forecast:
So maybe not the worst news for those anticipating a break from
the rain, but history shows Washingtonians get a little anxious
after two weeks of below normal rainfall, let alone three months
😉
Have a wonderful day,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
**BREAKING NEWS: Bremerton Airport has done it! We
are sitting at 52 degrees this Saturday afternoon, the first time
breaking 50 degrees since November 6th, 2012**
If the above title sounds threatening and perhaps utterly
disastrous, then I have done my job.
TV Weather personalities have received a fair amount of
criticism by meteorologists for being drama kings and queens when
it comes to the weather in general. But let’s be absolutely honest
here: There’s not much drama that happens in a weatherman’s life,
so how about we give them all a break.
With that being said, an ominous blue glob of…blueness is set to
engulf the Western U.S. for the next 14 days. You don’t believe me?
Then what is this?
Great question! The above graphic is provided by the CPC, or
Climate Prediction Center which is a branch of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration.
The CPC issues daily long range prognostications which highlight
the likelihood of above, near, or below normal temperatures and
precipitation for the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods. Orange/red= above
average, blue= below average, and white=average, with darker shades
of color signifying a higher probability.
So you can see that according to the CPC, the west coast, but
most specifically Kitsap County, has a 40-50% chance of being under
a chilly grip likely lasting until March. And how about
precipitation? About a 40% chance of above normal rainfall:
Our historical average temperature is 50 degrees starting
tomorrow, so if it’s any consolation, below normal temperatures in
February are much more tolerable than, say, below normal
temperatures in December.
Does the long range forecast include any chances of snow? Well,
I certainly can’t say it doesn’t and still consider myself an
honest person. But I also wouldn’t want to say it does and freak
everyone out. So…maybe 😉 All I can say is, it doesn’t appear our
chances for more snow have completely ended.
In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend and upcoming
week. Precipitation will be showery in nature for the next five
days with frequent sunbreaks, so that’s a plus!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
I know, this is exactly what everyone wanted to hear! Now, those
who know me understand I don’t like national weather companies, but
the Weather Channel is pretty good overall (this does not mean you
should bookmark their weather page for your forecasts! That’s why
I’m here ;)) and seemed to do a good job predicting
the overall weather pattern for our neck of the woods thus
far.
So what do they have to say about the February-April time frame?
Well, the video is kind of funny in that they talk about the
upcoming late winter/early spring pattern as if the Western US
doesn’t exist at all, but…well, we should be used to that 😉
Did anyone notice how they started out saying the jet stream
would sag for the eastern half of the nation and it showed “warm”
temperatures for the West next month, yet they produced a second
map showing we would actually average colder than normal for
February?
Not sure what that is all about, but with the jet stream acting
that way there’s one thing we can be sure of: We’re in for a lot
more dry weather.
Not too surprisingly, they are calling for a colder than normal
March and a MUCH colder than normal April. Yeah, that El Nino kind
of bombed…big time.
My thoughts generally coincide with the Weather Channel’s,
although I am noticing strong indications of a warmer and drier
than normal February. We’ll see.
Also, if you haven’t noticed, we’re back to playing the rain
game after a cold intermission of clouds and fog. However, I’m
keeping my eye on midweek. Could see some wet snow in a few Kitsap
locations if everything lines up just right. Looking on the bright
side, this weather pattern will help clear out the stagnant air
🙂
Have a great evening, everybody!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
In the weather world, 2013 has started off slow and seasonable.
Latest weather models indicate that may not be the case much longer
as we dive deeper into January. Remember when we talked about the
implications of a neutral weather year (ie no La Nina or El Nino
pattern)? This winter has lived up to its “wildcard” name, and it
will continue to drag surprises under our feet from time to
time.
There are several weather systems to keep an eye on, the first
being tomorrow afternoon. Moderate, steady rain and warmer
temperatures will move into the area around 1-2 pm tomorrow and
last most of the night. Most areas around the peninsula will add up
to anywhere from 0.30”-0.65” of rain by Monday morning. The flow
switches westerly throughout the day Monday signaling a small rain
shadow for large portions of the Kitsap peninsula.
TUESDAY: HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND
Tuesday will be the day to watch in terms of precipitation.
Locally heavy rain (most especially along the Hood Canal) will
spread into the area early Tuesday and persist much of the day. How
heavy? Hood Canal communities may come away with anywhere from 2-4”
of rain before the event is over. Models are also hinting at some
strong wind as well, although this will need to be monitored before
more stock is put into how much wind and where. Temperatures will
be seasonable, reaching the mid 40s.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: COLDER,
BUT WE ARE LOSING MOISTURE
Yes the rumors are true: we will be getting a little colder
around here. However, nothing at this point is looking really
impressive. Latest forecast models show little precipitation in the
Wednesday-Saturday time frame with temperatures dropping into the
30s and lower 40s with overnight lows in the upper 20s/lower
30s.
So yes, it will be getting colder, but so far it doesn’t appear
we’ll rival late December’s snow or cold temperatures. Right now it
would be safe to bet on a few rain/snow showers late Wednesday
night through next weekend, with an increased chance of sticking
snow along the Hood Canal Friday/Saturday. Again, temperatures will
still be marginal and we lose a lot of moisture, but the potential
is there.
LONG RANGE:
SOME SERIOUSLY COLD AIR COMING OUR WAY?
Although this upcoming week/weekend doesn’t look too prime for
any dramatic snow or cold events, that doesn’t mean
there’s nothing in the future to keep an eye on. Longer range
forecast models (6-14 days out) have consistently suggested a
colder, but drier weather pattern to take hold by week 3 of this
month. While still too early to discuss details, consistency in the
general theme of entering a fairly cold pattern in mid January has
been impressive.
As always, I’ll keep my eye on these storms for you. In the
meantime, be prepared for the next 72 hours to feature wet and
potentially windy weather around here.
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
