Very cold weather and possibly some snow this week

February isn’t usually a month filled with snowy possibilities, but this year could potentially prove otherwise as a very cold air mass from Canada is spilling into the Puget Sound basin as we speak, setting the stage for a pretty messy wintry transitional period this weekend.

First, let’s talk temperatures. It’s going to get wickedly cold around here, at least by Northwest standards. Take a look at surface temperatures Wednesday morning at around 7:00 am (darker purple is low 20s, lighter purple is mid teens):

Alas, there isn’t a warm spot to be found in the Northwest. Literally every community in Washington State will be caught anywhere between the single digits to low 20s Wednesday morning.

But somewhat surprisingly, we don’t move a whole lot in the temperature department throughout the day. Here are afternoon high temperatures at 4:00 PM Wednesday (dark blue represents temperatures in the mid to upper 20s):

Although this model may be overdoing it in the cold department, it is reasonable to suppose high temperatures may struggle to reach freezing over the next couple of days as that cold Canadian air becomes fully entrenched.

But of course most of you are wondering about the snow. It’s been hard to get a decent snow around here, especially since very few of our cold snaps this year have ended with precipitation. However, much of the peninsula stands a chance of seeing at least some snow Saturday night into Sunday before that mild marine influence rains on our parade:

What you are seeing is about 1/2-1″ of snow for much of the peninsula, with perhaps as much as 2″ closer to Mason County. These snow totals have been all over the place, though, with one model advertising nearly 4″ near the Hood Canal. At this point, I believe it is safe to say that seeing some snowflakes this weekend is a good bet, but just how much is still up in the air.

The long range looks pretty seasonable at this point, with high temperatures getting closer to 50 degrees by early next week.

Enjoy the cold and dry weather if you can! Stay tuned to the Forecasting Kitsap blog for more updates as they come.

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com