Go figure! Western Washington is going to get wet. But let’s be clear about what weather models are advertising for this weekend: It’s not going to be a typically drippy late September weather pattern. A series of fronts will actually move their way through Western Washington that could pack enough of a punch to take care of July, August and September’s rain totals combined.

Here’s a look at what I’m seeing by 5pm Friday evening:

Seems innocent enough, right? About a quarter inch of rain for the main Kitsap area with places to the south or north receiving a bit more. What’s the big deal? Well, here’s Saturday’s system (totals ending at 5am Sunday):

I don’t know about you, but the western part of this map looks like a big, nasty bruise. And I suppose in some ways it could be considered such. Rainfall totals by early Sunday morning could amount to as much as 2.50″ for Kitsap County. Incredible! But let’s take a step back and look at this sucker from a 72-hour point of view (totals from Friday through Sunday PM):

I was about to put a “Viewer Discretion is Advised” label on this picture because of its graphic content. In 72-hours, the University of Washington’s Atmospheric Sciences models place us anywhere between…*gulp*…2.50″ to 4.50″. I don’t know of any other way to say it: This weekend will be an absolute washout. A soaker.

Ok, now that you know the precipitation stats, why is this happening to us? What has innocent Western Washington done to deserve this deluge of rain in such a short amount of time? Friday’s system is really nothing impressive, but Saturday’s storm will have remnants from an old typhoon that will help boost the precip totals. So basically, wave after wave of what would normally be a typical rainy Washington weekend is being enhanced by more moist influences.

Stay tuned for some possible Flood Watches or Flood Warnings. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were posted in the coming days.

Once the storm passes Sunday night though, the snow level really plummets. By Monday the snow level will be at around 5,000′ with temperatures barely reaching the upper 50s.

So stock up on the umbrellas! We might think we’re used to rain, but this kind of rain doesn’t come around very often…

Have a safe weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

First of all, sorry for the black text on the light blue background. Is it bothering all of you as much as it’s bothering me? I can’t tell you how many times I’ve tried to change it to white.

ANYWAY, we did it. Since 2:30 pm we’ve been sitting at a solid 90º. It’s about 3:30 pm right now and I’m confident we’ll be able to squeeze out a few more degrees before this early September heat spell winds down. This means our record high temperature of 86º set back in 2011 is…well, a thing of history.

We still have a couple more days of unseasonable warmth as offshore winds and a late-season thermal trough slowly fizzle away. Thursday and Friday both look mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s. For those just itching for more fall-like weather, true relief arrives by the weekend with highs settling down into the low to mid 70s.

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

In this morning’s weather discussion on the Kitsap Sun’s homepage, I discussed the possibility for a pretty major heatwave to take place midweek this week. Not that I advocate playing hooky, but…well, if there was anytime to take a few days off of work or school to enjoy summer’s last hoorah, it would be Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Heck, let’s just add in Friday for good measure 😉

A building thermal trough from the south is getting ready to pump in some heat for Western Washington from the already heat-opressed regions of the Desert Southwest (read more about thermal trough’s here). This will spell a series of sunny and hot early September days with clear nights. In fact, we could have some of the warmest temperature readings of the season over the next few days.

Here is a temperature forecast brought to you by the University of Washington’s Atmospheric Sciences department. The following map shows Wednesday’s high temperatures. As you can see, most of Kitsap County is well into the 80s, if not near 90 degrees for some spots:

And here’s a peek into Friday, which shows us “plummeting” to near 80 degrees:

Reaching 80 degrees in September has actually become quite the norm around here in recent years, but reaching 90 is nothing short of a late summer miracle. Here are some years we got close to or exceeded 90 degrees in the past decade:

• September 11th, 2011: 86 degrees
• September 22nd, 2009: 93 degrees (I should also add we dipped down to a jaw-dropping 46 degrees that night!)
• September 10th, 11th 2007: 84 degrees
• September 3rd, 2006: 95 degrees (also an overnight low of 46!)
• September 28th, 2003: 86 degrees

Another interesting note: We have managed to exceed 90 degrees twice in the past decade, while every year before that going back to the early 90s we hardly ever got close. To compliment that, particularly warm Septembers have almost always correlated with a sharply colder and wetter fall season. Why? I’m not sure, but the correlation is there!

How about breaking records? That’s tough to say around here, since record keeping is spotty in the Kitsap area, but the records I have indicate today (September 10th) holds a record high of 84 degrees set back in 2007, September 11th’s record is 86 degrees set back in 2011, and September 12th’s record is 82 set back in 2002. I think we have a decent shot at breaking all of those records!

So yes, it’s going to get exceedingly warm around these parts over the next couple of days. But fear not, cool weather lovers! Our natural air conditioning kicks in by the weekend into early next week, bringing temperatures back to the low to mid 70s. Weather conditions beyond that get a little fuzzy to pin down, but it does appear this is summer’s last gasp.

Enjoy!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Photo by YouNews contributer CadenceWhittle, Mukilteo, WA (8/29/2013)

The above picture is probably all that is needed to conjure up memories of a stormy late August evening. Then again, this turbulent event wasn’t all that long ago. In fact, tomorrow (Thursday) marks the one week anniversary of this rare August weather pattern, and we’re about to go another round of heavy rain and storms because…well…Mother Nature says so.

First of all, a FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12:00 pm September 5th through 6:00 pm September 6th  for the Puget Sound region including Kitsap County. This watch has been issued because, according to the National Weather Service,

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY…WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE OLYMPIC RANGE EASTWARD…THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE RAIN RATES OF AN INCH IN ONE HOUR OR LESS. (Read more here)

Is it just me, or does it sound weird to say this is our second major storm of the summer season? We hardly ever have a first!

Let’s take a look at this bad boy on the satellite picture. Notice the tight spin just off the coast:

That clearly defined low pressure system will slowly track eastward through Oregon and then creep northward toward our area. This won’t be the kind of tightly-wound low pressure system that produces extreme wind, but it will produce some pretty hefty rain totals (hence the Flood Watch):

The above image, which comes via the University of Washington’s plethora of weather models, advertises about an inch or more of rain for much of Western Washington (green/pink colors), with most of the coast experiencing lighter totals in the 0.30-0.70″ range.

Also, if we take a look at the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), it is exceptionally high for our region (the brighter the shade, the more instability)

Therefore, expect not only periods of heavy rain Thursday into Friday morning, but also a series of thunderstorms. Of course, startling thunder, blinding lightning and copious amounts of rain in a short amount of time come in the “thunderstorm package deal.”

So there you have it! It’s going to be a wet and stormy 48 hours, so be prepared for areas of flooding and unfavorable traffic conditions.

Be safe out there! More updates as they come…

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com