Monthly Archives: March 2013

First warm spell of 2013 to bless Kitsap County

sunshine

It’s definitely hard to choose a favorite season, so I’m going to choose two.

Spring and fall. Why these two? Glad you asked!

In the spring, we anxiously await our first 60 degree reading, our first 70 degree reading, and perhaps even our first 80 degree reading. We look forward in anticipation to our first hailstorm, our first thunderstorm, and last windstorm.

In the fall, we get all giddy to experience our first day with highs in the 40s, our first frost, and our first windstorm. Our throats run dry as we obsess over when our first snow might be, when news stations will start throwing out the “Arctic Blast [Insert Year Here]” logo, and when schools might shut down for the first time of the season under an inch of sloppy, wet snow.

Or maybe it’s just me.

Either way, I have some great news for those who still haven’t thawed over the past few months. Increasing high pressure, as well as an early-season influence of offshore flow, will provide our region with its first real warm spell of 2013. The details are definitely fuzzy, and some forecasting models have been overly dramatic to put it lightly, but it looks like we may get a little taste of late May/early June weather for this last weekend in March.

Just like when you turn on the kitchen stove, it takes a little while to heat up. So expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for your Thursday with just a few light showers. Friday will clear up and warm up with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s.

Of course, our little stove doesn’t run on much power because we’re only in late March, but things will be noticeably more comfortable as we head into Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Skies will get progressively clearer, temperatures will get progressively warmer, and the citizens of Kitsap County will progressively emerge from their homes at bask in the early spring rays.

High temperatures this coming weekend will be in the mid to maybe even upper 60s. Are we looking at 70 degrees yet? I’m not willing to put such a large number on the 7 day forecast graphic just yet, but let’s just say it wouldn’t surprise me to see some 70s floating around the peninsula on Saturday or Sunday.

And wouldn’t you know it, cooler, but still mild weather persists into next week.

I don’t know what we’re doing to find so much favor in Mother Nature’s eyes, but whatever it is, we’re doing it right 😉

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? Send them to me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

3-27-2013

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Strong spring storm system specifically scheduled to slam Silverdale (and surrounding areas)

olympic college rain

Photo by: Larry Steagall, November 2012 (Olympic College, Bremerton)

Let’s just start off by saying I have no idea why I gave into temptation and turned this blog title into an alliteration, but I hope you enjoyed it nonetheless 🙂

And I also hope you understand this storm system will be a whole lot more inclusive than just targeting Silverdale, as fun a forecast as that would be.

Did you remember Wednesday is the first day of spring? Well, I’m not sure it would make any difference if you remembered or not, because it sure as heck won’t feel like it. In fact, 24 hour rainfall totals indicate quite the deluge of rain by Wednesday evening. See for yourself!

14(900x800) images (964,467 bytes)

That’s a little over an inch of rain for a good chunk of the peninsula. Also, add a good 15-25 mph breeze throughout the day, and we’ve got our selves a special spring storm! We’ll continue to struggle in the temperature department, with highs barely reaching 50.

Showery and cool weather continues through the work week with sunbreaks finally showing up in greater abundance as we approach the weekend.

Have a fantastic day out there! Oh yes, and if you have any stunning scenes specially snapped from your snazzy cameras, I’d love to see them and post them on the blog 🙂 My e-mail is: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

3-18-2013

 

 

 

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Long range forecast update: Getting drier, but cooler

The long-anticipated, long range forecast is here!

There are only so many ways to describe a rainy forecast, so you can imagine my excitement upon finding the long range predictions for the next 6-10 days look increasingly drier and cooler.

Then again, what does “drier” and “cooler” look like? Knowing March’s typical trends around here, it probably means cloudy skies, light rain and highs in the mid to upper 40s. But is that really good news?

In my weather discussion on the Kitsap Sun homepage today, I discussed how we are actually running a few inches behind in the precipitation department. We’ve only managed 7 inches of rain since January 1st, whereas we should be closer to 12. In fact, it appears we may actually make it three months in a row with below normal precipitation, according to the 8-14 day forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

So maybe not the worst news for those anticipating a break from the rain, but history shows Washingtonians get a little anxious after two weeks of below normal rainfall, let alone three months 😉

Have a wonderful day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

3-13-2013

 

 

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New ‘Forecasting Kitsap’ blog schedule

Hello, all! You have likely noticed this blog has been the quietest since I left for my two year mission to South Africa. There are a couple reasons for this and I wanted to take a moment and explain some of the changes that have occurred over the past couple weeks:

  1. I want to make my forecasts more easily accessible and have therefore decided to spend most of my time preparing daily weather updates which can be found every weekday morning on the Kitsap Sun homepage. The Sun will also host links to their Facebook page.
  2. This blog will not be updated as frequently as before as most of my time will be spent providing daily weather forecasts. However, expect weather updates, with accompanying graphics, one to two times a week on this blog and on my Kitsap Weather Facebook page.
  3. As always during moments of extreme weather, I will update this blog as frequently as needs be.

I hope you will find this new format more efficient and satisfying your daily weather needs. I’ve promised a long range outlook for a while, so look for one tomorrow!

Have a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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February 2013 Month in Review: No more fog, but plenty of cloud cover

Several of my friends and relatives admit February is their favorite winter month. And why not? It is the proverbial “light at the end of the tunnel” after our dark, dank winter days unofficially beginning in November.

But not this February.

No, this February lived up to her sister months by providing us several cold, wet days followed by some sparkly rays of sunshine. Not to sound too pessimistic, but these rays of sunshine really only lasted long enough to reflect off the wet roadways and near-blind our already cautious Washington drivers.

So what was the deal with February? Are you ready for some statistics? Here’s a temperature graph of our short 28-day month:

february 2013 month stats

Any guesses as to how we averaged out? Here’s the raw data:

Average high temperature: 45.0

Actual high temperature: 45.6 (0.6° above normal)

Average low temperature: 31.7

Actual low temperature: 33.7 (2° above normal)

Average overall temperature: 38.3

Actual overall temperature: 39.6 (1.3° above normal)

Although we managed several wet days, most of the days we perceived as being “drippy” were actually just cloudy. As sad as it sounds, only 4 out of 28 days this past month were NOT recorded as cloudy. Despite that glaring statistic, we only managed a paltry 2.80” of rain for the whole month, a good 3.42” below our average 6.22”.

But every bit of that 2.80” of rain counts! Who could forget winter storms “Rambo”, “Batman”, and “Sherlock”? Or how about our first legitimate windstorm of 2013? When all was said and done, February was a welcome break from all the fog and stale weather January gave us. It still wasn’t nearly as active as you’d expect a “neutral year” to be 😉

So let’s sit back and see what March can do. Stay tuned to this blog and the Kitsap Sun homepage for daily weather information.

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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