Hello everyone! I’ve been meaning to issue a fall forecast of my own for the past couple weeks, but one thing has piled on another and I haven’t completed my draft! However, by Wednesday you’ll see the final results of what I am observing and what I think that will mean for you in the coming months.
In the mean time, I thought many of you would like to know the Weather Channel’s take on the situation since, after all, they are slightly more well known, credible and famous than myself 😉 But I’d sure like to duel it out with them when it comes to predicting Kitsap’s weather!
Ahem…where were we? Oh yes. The Weather Channel. In a news release just hours ago, Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist of Weather Services International (WSI), expounds on the ever declining El Nino and how it may actually play the opposite effect than first anticipated. This means much of the west could be caught in a chilly early season grip while the eastern states could bask in above to much above normal temperatures.
In fact, December is projected to average “much below normal” in the Northwest, much to the pleasure of skiers and snowboarders here! (By the way, “normal” is considered anything higher than the 1981-2010 historical average)
Take from this what you will. It IS a 3 month long range forecast after all:
(We’re having issues with the link, so you will have to copy and paste this into the address bar. Sorry for the inconvenience!)
www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/late-fall-early-winter-outlook-20120924
As for us in the present day? Well…I don’t know how many ways I can present it to you without it sounds monotonous. 😉 The next 7 days looks pretty typical of late September: morning clouds, drizzle, partial clearing in the afternoon and highs reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will be the case until about Thursday when a weak ridge of high pressure builds in and boosts temperatures up a notch into the low to mid 70s.
The long range is interesting, but I prefer to leave it at that. There are certainly signs for a pattern change once we enter October, but let’s not get too carried away 🙂
For now, enjoy what we have! Several forecasting agencies don’t seem to think it’ll last much longer 😉
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
forecastingkitsap@live.com
I remember a winter sometime around 77-79, where although it was bitterly cold around here, there was little or no precipitation through the winter. There was no joy in the mountains for sking, nor in the Eastern Washington orchards when the runoff didn’t come the following spring.
I was kind of leaning that direction for this winter, actually! There just aren’t many strong signals leading to an exceptionally wet period anytime too soon. But, with the El Nino weakening, the jet stream should sag and allow for more precip over the coming months.
But that’s pretty unusual! Dry and cold for an extended period of time is pretty rare.