Long Range Thoughts: Mild, sunny weather till the end of the month

Good afternoon, everyone!

A Forecasting Kitsap reader commented a week or so ago about whether the idea of seasons lagging from year to year is accurate. For instance, have you noticed the summer doesn’t really start until July? And for the past several years it hasn’t ended until late September? Or doesn’t it seem winter won’t really kick in until January and somehow extends until May? Of course I don’t have any scientific information to back the theory up, but somehow I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that we need to tweak our winter and summer solstice a bit, at least here in the Northwest.

This theory is ringing particularly true this year. Remember June? How could you not?! It was my first full month back from South Africa and I was shivering from head to toe. Now, it could partially be due to the reason I had just come back from South Africa, but still! It was a dark, wet month. Let’s now compare that to our current state. The temperature right now is 79 degrees! In fact, 12 days out of our 17 so far this month have registered with a high of 75 degrees or above. Then when you add the fact that roughly 85% of the days this month have featured clear skies, the jaws continue to drop.

So now let’s look into the crystal ball and see what’s in store. Are you loving this weather? If so, you are SO spoiled as Mother Nature has deaf ears to all pleas and cries of fall weather fans. Here’s a current look at the 6-10 day forecast from the CPC:

That massive red gob over the Northwest is not usually something snow fans want to see during the winter, although at this time of year we might as well use it up. The above map is color coated depending on % chance. So for instance, we have a 50% chance of registering above normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days. For those who are interested, the 8-14 day forecast, for what it’s worth, is the same.

The accuracy of the CPC has certainly  increased since I’ve been gone, so I’d bet good money this verifies. So what does that translate for us? Remember, just because the map says “50% chance of above normal temperatures” does not mean we’ll be exceeding 80 every day between now and October. In fact, our daily average high temperature drops every day, even if only a half of a degree. So realistically 80 degrees looks less and less likely each day. Also, these maps don’t tell you how much above average we could be.

With that in mind, latest numbers suggest we’ll eventually fall into the mid 70s through next week and cool down quite a bit once October rolls around. It’s hard to say how cool we’ll get, but fall weather will likely arrive along with October, which is usually the case.

For now, enjoy the sunny, mild weather!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap