El Niño Update: Taking its sweet little time

So let me take a random stab in the dark and guess many of you are happy to see temperatures in the mid 80s exiting the 7 day forecast. Did you know Bremerton Airport recorded a high of 88 degrees on Friday? Sea-Tac airport broke a record with 90 degrees. So I guess my risky prediction still holds: we on the Kitsap Peninsula will likely not see 90 degrees again until 2013.

With all this unseasonably warm weather, many of you have been asking about the state of El Niño. Perhaps you cold and snow lovers will take solace in a statement released by the NOAA on September 6th saying:

 Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly one-half of the statistical models, now predict the onset of El Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the remainder of the year…Supported by the model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, the official forecast calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13. (To read the full article, click here!)

The last weak El Niño we had was in 2006-2007, which offered some record cold, flooding and warmth along with an incredible skiing year, so the weaker the better! In fact, it’s very probable we remain “neutral” until the official onset of winter which means largely a wildcard weather pattern until then. Stay tuned to the NOAA website for further updates!

The short term looks drastically colder and wetter. You may have noticed the cooler temperatures and increase in cloud cover today and it will only get cooler and cloudier from here. Your Sunday looks mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers increasing in the evening. Highs will decrease from the upper 70s today to the mid 60s tomorrow.

Monday will be another cool and showery day with highs in the low and mid 60s. And while these weather days may feel more like a Washington fall, the skies will clear yet again and highs will rebound to the mid and upper 70s throughout the week next week. For most of us, the weather this upcoming week could be termed as “perfection”.

The long range forecast looks like continued dry and mild weather with no real end in sight. In fact, by the third week or so of the month we’ll probably average out in the low to mid 70s for highs. Overall, we’re looking at quite an impressive streak of mild fall weather!

Have a great weekend everyone,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap


8 thoughts on “El Niño Update: Taking its sweet little time

  1. Hi Matthew. So, if I understand this right, we should anticipate a cold, wet winter? or one not so cold but rainy? What are your thoughts?

  2. Hi, Sally! Within the next few days I will release a preliminary forecast which will highlight general aspects of this upcoming fall season. Winter 2012, at least at this time, is going to be a hard one to pinpoint.

    As it looks right now our odds for a colder than normal fall season is fairly reasonable at a 60%, with odds much higher of a dry season.

    Winter could follow suit with cool and dry weather. This certainly doesn’t mean we won’t see any snow, but I think we’ll see less than we have in recent years. More on that in a couple weeks!

  3. Saw a few good flashes of lightning tonight/this morning just after midnight. Mostly intra-cloud and no thunder, to the SSE of me in the Long Lake area.

  4. Hi, Karen. Yeah, the marine push produced a few spotty strikes that apparently didn’t touch down or amount to much. Usually after intense heat or an extended period of warmth a dramatic marine push can produce thundershowers.

    Thanks for the update!

  5. So this is the most dry days since ’51? Hmmm let me think…what was the winter like that year? Oh ya…..

  6. Matthew..I have had ongoing discussions with friends that it appears to me that our standard linear calendar no longer matches the natural progression of seasons. June appears to be April and July appears to be June…etc…summer stretches way into October now…what is going on???

  7. Bill: I think a comparison of the summer of 1951 and our summer deserves some special attention in a blog post! 🙂

    Chelle: That is certainly an intriguing subject. To be honest, I haven’t heard much about it and I’d have to do a bit of research. I do see what you mean, however. Lately (perhaps within the past 5 years or so) seasons have been starting and ending much later than usual. Thanks for giving me something more to think and study about!


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