Monthly Archives: August 2012

Brief hot spell update

Just a little bit of time this morning before a more detailed forecast this evening. It looks like the summer forecast a couple days ago will definitely be materializing, but much stronger than first anticipated! We may very well be redoing our little August heatwave a couple weeks ago, except this time we may get more of a “kick” to it, meaning the chance for some thunderstorms directly following the hot spell. I’ll explain more about that later tonight.

Here’s an excerpt from the National Weather Service’s forecast discussion this morning:

THURSDAY PROMISES TO BE A HOT DAY OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S NEAR THE WATER
 AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEAR THE CASCADES AND IN THE INTERIOR FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ON THE COAST COOL INTO THE
70S…BUT FRIDAY WILL BE AS HOT AS THURSDAY IN THE INTERIOR. THE 2-DAY PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE  SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON 4-5 AUG 2012. A MARINE PUSH WILL GIVE COOLING ON SATURDAY AND A PASSING  UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND MAY PROVIDE SOME THUNDERSTORMS

More updates this evening…for now, try to stay cool!

~Matt



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Hint at more summer time temperatures next week

Just a short blog post this afternoon. My family and I are traveling to Utah to visit family for the week, so posts on this blog will unfortunately be less frequent over the next seven days. It’ll be hard for me to take a long vacation, partially because weather never takes a holiday, but I’m sure you’ll all survive without consistent updates for a week 😉

I want to share some thoughts on a building upper ridge which should offer some more summer-like temperatures next week. How warm is still an area of uncertainty, but here’s what it’s currently looking like on the latest models:

The above picture is a snip-it of the WRF GFS model for Thursday of next week provided by the University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences department. This is advertising temperatures in the mid and upper 80s. You’ve probably noticed I use this model a lot to forecast temperatures and precipitation amounts. Another output I don’t feature too often on this blog is the European model (ECMWF) which has all the imperfections any other weather model has, but it serves as another fresh opinion, especially when trying to nail down a hot or cold event, storm or anything in between. Because in weather forecasting, opinions from all the weather sources matter!

So here’s what the ECMWF has to say:


Looks like the same picture in terms of potential. We have two areas of high pressure: one parked out west in the Pacific, another further east. As a result, it appears this will serve to pinch the warm air in between and distribute it all along the west coast. As heights build, so will the heat. As of now it doesn’t look like a major heatwave. In fact, current models are projecting this second wave of warm air could only last a couple days.

It will take a few more model runs and consistency to say for certain how this will all pan out, but so far it looks like our warm August weather is about to reload.

Have a fantastic weekend everyone and be safe!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Comments? Questions? Weather pics? E-mail them to: forecastingkitsap@live.com



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A sneak peek into the weather of Fall 2012

Colorado ski lift photo posted by Flickr user dkwonsh.

I know, we haven’t even had a true summer yet and we’re already talking about fall! But for what it’s worth, this may settle some fears that a looming El Niño will destroy all hope for skiing, snowboarding or school closures this year.

About a week ago I produced a weather post on why we may be in for an Indian summer. While I still feel we have a good chance at seeing a warm start to fall, some weather sources are saying it won’t last long. In fact, early predictions say the western United States may be in for a cold, wet and snowy (in higher elevations, of course ;)) autumn season. One of those weather sources is long range forecasting website Accuweather.com:

It will start out wet during the early and middle of the fall in the Northwest.

“I think it will start out wetter, but get drier in the late fall season, which could set up for a fairly dry or at least below-normal winter season across areas like Seattle and Spokane,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

Wet weather will shift farther south across much of California during the middle to latter part of the season. A wet late-fall is in store for San Francisco. Increased snowfall expected in the Sierra is good news for California water supply, following a significant snow drought last winter. Read the full article here


The shift to drier weather in the late fall season would reflect the growing El Niño as well. This past Friday I sat down with Scott Sistek, weather producer at KOMO 4 News, as well as Steve Pool, KOMO 4 evening weather forecaster. Among many topics of discussion, one of them was the developing El Niño. I asked Scott if it’s looking healthy enough to play a big impact in our winter weather this year. He responded that it not only looks healthy, but also big. El Niño and La Niña weather patterns are divided into three groups: weak, moderate and strong. Scott believes we could be in for a moderate El Niño this winter, which typically means mild, dry and relatively calm.

Obviously nothing is set in stone yet, but already it sounds like an interesting couple of months ahead…weather-wise, anyway!

In the short term, however, the weather will be anything but interesting. In fact, it will be pretty typical of early August. The sun will gradually reappear through the end of the week into the weekend and high temperatures will rise to the upper 70s and lower 80s. After a brief marine push Monday of next week, a strengthening ridge should serve warm and sunny weather for the rest of the week.

Gotta love summer in the Pacific Northwest!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com



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Results from our August 2012 mini heatwave

**Please vote in the latest poll on the right hand side bar! This will help me know how to make your experience on this blog even better. You can choose more than one answer!**

What a difference a day makes! One of the beauties of living in the Pacific Northwest is the eventual natural air conditioning that kicks in after a heatwave. Scott Sistek of KOMO 4 talks more about how we get so hot here in the summer and why we almost always cool off so dramatically. It’s interesting how a change in wind direction can really make all the difference.

So this morning we’re in the low 60s, which is about 10-12 degrees cooler than this time both yesterday and Sunday. This is a good indication of much cooler temperatures today which will ultimately result in highs topping out in the upper 70s and low 80s:

So what were we able to accomplish out of this “heatwave”? Do you wish it lasted longer? The good news is we still have mild temperatures and dry weather in the forecast for the foreseeable future, but nothing THIS hot looks likely any time *too soon. So let’s take a look at the progression:

FRIDAY (August 3rd, 2012)- 79/52 (winds were primarily from the N/NE all day and the thermal trough was gliding north across the Oregon coastline)

SATURDAY (August 4th, 2012)- 90/64 (Friday’s high temperature was 79, but on Saturday we easily reached that temperature at 10:35 am with a NE wind)

SUNDAY (August 5th, 2012)- 97/55 (The hottest weather during a thermal trough usually occurs when it is directly overhead. Many weather models were hinting at Saturday being the warmest day, but the trough took its dear sweet time passing over us and instead offered a baking forecast just shy of 100 degrees).

As a result of this heatwave, according to record numbers at Bremerton National Airport, both Saturday and Sunday smashed old records:

SATURDAY (August 4th): OLD RECORD: 87 (2005); NEW RECORD: 90 (2012)

SUNDAY (August 5th): OLD RECORD: 86 (2005); NEW RECORD: 97 (2012)

This leads us to the results of our latest poll conducted on the right hand side bar. 39% of you felt we would only average between 85-90 degrees, while 33% voted we would average 90 degrees or above. The 33% who voted for 90+ degrees and above win! The average high temperature this weekend was 93.5. Toasty!

You may see some ominous looking clouds outside right now as a result of our dramatic marine push, but don’t get too excited. While there’s still the chance for a few stray thundershowers or rain showers (mostly concentrated in the Cascades), we’ll remain mostly dry and skies will clear throughout the day.

Mild weather remains throughout the week! But if I had to choose one day this week to not plan a pool party, it would be Wednesday, as more low clouds and cool temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s could turn most of the crowd away 🙂

Have a great day everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com




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VIDEO FORECAST: 90 today, even more 90s tomorrow

It’s been a while since I produced a “vlog”, so what better day to do it than today? According to Bremerton Airport’s records, we broke the old record of 87 degrees from 2005 and replaced it with a 90 degree reading today. Check out the video below for more updates:

A special thanks to Wachi Suyaruankaew, who has provided me with updated weather graphics.

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED: Several 90s could spot the region by Sunday

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Good morning, summer lovers! First thing’s first: this heatwave that looked little a few days ago is now turning out to be quite the sizzler. This is the statement issued by the National Weather Service:

…HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY. * TEMPERATURES…WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AT MANY PLACES TODAY…RESULTING IN THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MILD AND WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HOTTER AT MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY…WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT MANY PLACES. * IMPACTS…THE HOT SPELL WILL LURE MANY TO AREA LAKES AND RIVERS THIS WEEKEND. IF YOU PLAN TO BE IN OR NEAR OPEN WATER…BE WATER SAFE AND WEAR A LIFE JACKET. * SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS…SEATTLE…NORTH BEND…OLYMPIA… BREMERTON…AND CHEHALIS.

This means that some of the high temperatures I previously forecasted may be a little conservative. Not that 88 or 93 will feel that different out on the beach, but it could make all the difference for records to fall, at least according to the official weather station on the Kitsap Peninsula at Bremerton Airport. Currently, at 9:35 am it is 75 degrees, a good 12 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. After yesterday’s high temperature of 79 degrees, we can very well count on a high near 90 today.

And remember, many Kitsap locations will be on either side of that number. Those closest to the water, like Bainbridge Island, will experience highs in the mid 80s versus those living in the southern or central portions of Kitsap county which will likely hit anywhere from 88-91.

Sunday, according to latest forecasting models and the National Weather Service, could be even warmer. Stay tuned to this blog for further updates!

Stay safe, everyone!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

Record heat possible: Kitsap to have hottest weather in nearly 2 years

**Wanna guess how hot we’ll get? Cast your vote in the latest poll on the sidebar!**

Looks like it will actually happen!

You know, in June and July a forecast like this is a sketchy one because summer is just barely getting itself established after the almost always over long winter season. But when we get into August and there’s the possibility of strong offshore flow from our already baking eastern neighbors, you just know summer is about to deliver.

The image you see above spells out one of many scenarios for Kitsap County on Sunday. Do you see that pinkish glob sitting just south of Belfair? That’s a bubble of potential 90+ degree weather with the rest of Kitsap County practically engulfed by 85+ degree possibilities. Now, we may not hit 90, but we’ll get pretty close. Here are the record highs for August 4th and August 5th:

Saturday (4th): Record-87 (2005); Forecast: 88

Sunday (5th): Record– 86 (2005); Forecast: 86

According to current forecasting models, it wouldn’t be very hard to break these records, especially with a persistent east wind forecast to remain steady throughout this mini heatwave (and as a side note, this will help dry things out. Remember the humidity a few weeks ago? This is our classic set up for “dry heat”).

And isn’t it kind of sad these numbers are the highest we’ve seen in nearly two years? On July 8th, 2010, Bremerton Airport recorded a high of 91 degrees. August 2010 also featured a few 90 degree readings, but aside from the stray 80+ weather in September of 2010 and 2011, true summer warmth has been hard to come by.

Rest assured, those of you dreading this upcoming warmth will only have to endure it for a couple days. Our trusty marine influence will moderate things quite a bit for the new week, offering highs where we’ve seen them most of the summer. But don’t worry summer fans. Long range forecasting models indicate we may not be done with the warmth!

Oh, and you probably couldn’t help but notice the thunderstorm icon between Sunday and Monday on the 7 day forecast. There’s a possibility of some convection around Sunday night/Monday and I wouldn’t be surprised if a few “lucky” locations saw bright flashes of lightning as a result. The main threat of thunderstorms will be over the Cascades, but we all know what happened last time someone predicted mountain thunderstorms 😉

Enjoy some true summer warmth for a change!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

 

July 2012 weather stats: Storms, clouds and…

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What a relief it was to go to the Mariners vs. Blue Jays game last night WITHOUT a jacket! Unlike two weeks ago, the weather was sublime for watching a great game of baseball. But as I sat in the nosebleeds, I began to think: how cold has it really been this month? I mean, I’ve worn light jackets far more than I expected to, but what are the statistics to prove how we ended up number-wise?

Drum roll please…this afternoon I worked on creating a map of our temperatures for the month of July 2012 compared to average. Before you see the results below the picture, just take a look at this graph and see if you can guess whether we ended up below, near or above normal in the temperature department:

The first striking piece of evidence we can find on this map is the spike in temperatures at the beginning of the month. In fact, we were going a little over a week above our normal daytime temperatures! But what held us back is the consistently cool overnight low temperatures during that same period. Then, when the daytime temperatures start to crash in the middle of the month, notice the spike in overnight low temperatures. If you were looking at this graph and thought to yourself, “This looks to be a pretty average month”, you’d be right…in some respects, anyway.

The average monthly temperature for July is 60.8 degrees, with highs and lows combined. Interestingly, when I calculated July 2012’s average monthly temperature, it came out to be…60.8 degrees! Perfectly normal month! However, when I separated the highs and lows, compared to the average monthly daytime high of 72.5, we came out 1.3 degrees cooler at 71.2. The night time temperature, which typically averages 49.1 degrees, came out at 50.4 which is a difference of +1.3. So, naturally, with our daytime high running -1.3 degrees and our night time low running +1.3 degrees…well…it doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out why we hit the monthly average temperature square on the nose 😉

Of course, we had quite the unusual run-in with thunderstorms, which dominated several days in the month. Due in part to the rare thunderstorms, Bremerton airport picked up a monthly total of 0.39”, which is significantly higher than the average 0.03”. And many other Kitsap locations saw far more than 0.39” by months end.

So, to sum up July 2012, we could say it was definitely a month of storms, clouds and fairly average weather. And with all the complaining and griping I heard in relation towards the weather this month, I can tell we’re not use to “normal” weather 😉

So…how about a little abnormality? After a relatively comfortable temperature of 72 degrees today, we’re going to take it down a few notches and introduce a little more cloud cover for tomorrow. In fact, we may even see some drizzle tomorrow morning. As it stands, highs will likely only make it into the upper 60s.

A ridge of high pressure builds into the area Thursday night which will pave the way for continued clearing on Friday and much warmer temperatures. We *may* even get another 80 degree day out of this, but so far it looks like we will be stuck in the 70s.

Then things really start to warm up for our weekend with highs bouncing into the mid and upper 80s across the peninsula. We may find ourselves with the warmest couple of days we have seen all summer. With that being said…get out and enjoy it! A stronger marine push invades the region later Sunday and that will spell more in the way of spotty clouds and cooler temperatures for the new week.

Good job August! Keep it up!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com