**A WIND ADVISORY and HIGH WIND WATCH have been issued for the greater Seattle area including all of Kitsap County. Click here for more information.**

Updated 5:22 PM

Welcome to stormy season! Get ready for a stormy couple of days as wind watches/warnings have been posted for all of Western Washington accompanied by copious amounts of rainfall…as in potentially 3-5” of rain in the main Kitsap area in about 48 hours. This seems too dramatic to be true, but the “firehose” is trending more and more south with the rain and if it keeps the trend going, we could be looking at serious flooding for the Skokomish River.

Take a look at this 48 hour rainfall forecast ending 4 am Tuesday. This shows the extreme rainfall amounts engulfing about 90% of the Kitsap Peninsula:

Another dangerous aspect of this storm is the warmer tropical air associated with it. You know all the snow we’ve accumulated in the mountains? Say bye-bye…this storm will ensure we either start from square one (yet again) in the mountain passes or at least get pretty close. Discouraging to say the least.

And lastly (hopefully, lastly…) there looks to be a major windstorm potential with this as well. Tomorrow and Tuesday look likely to produce strong winds, but how strong is still in question. If the NWS issues any wind watches/warnings I will post them.

Showers and sunbreaks look likely Wednesday before a stronger front moves through Thursday. A break then arrives Friday before some more heavy rain returns Saturday.

But it will feel like drizzle compared to what’s coming next! 😉

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

I don’t have a whole lot of time to blog this evening, but at 4:30 PM the NWS issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting the potential for a very active day  tomorrow weather-wise. And by active, they mean strong winds to our north (around the Strait of Juan de Fuca) and periods of rain and cold temperatures here in Kitsap.

But what makes this situation interesting is the potential for some wet snow to fall wherever moisture hangs around Friday evening and overnight. Snow levels will drop to 500′ by Friday evening, so any precipitation could become a chunky mix of rain and wet snow, cold rain, or brief snow, but this is a big “IF” situation: “IF we get precipitation heavy enought to allow a bit of snow, IF it’s cold enough by the time the precip gets here, IF you live in a hilly area that would support such snow,” etc. So don’t quote me on this! Just don’t be surprised if you see some chunky splats on your windshield tomorrow evening 😉

Good news is, what appeared to be heavy rain arriving this weekend looks relatively light as most of that would-be moisture takes aim to our north (a common thing during El Nino years). In fact, Saturday looks mostly dry.

Here’s the statement made by the NWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
430 PM PST THU NOV 12 2009

…ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY…

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING…BRINGING RAIN…MOUNTAIN SNOWS…LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS.

SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR INCLUDING THE ADMIRALTY INLET REGION. WIND
SPEEDS IN THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH…MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE ISLAND COUNTY AREA.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES…WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA…WIND OF THIS STRENGTH COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW
TREE LIMBS HERE AND THERE WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

COLDER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER ALREADY LOW
SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 500
FEET BY EVENING. THIS MEANS SOME OF THE HIGHEST HILLS AROUND THE
REGION COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OR THE IMMEDIATE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS…LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

I’ll blog more about this tomorrow morning…

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST (Can’t believe I added the first snowflakes of the season to my map!)

Hope you didn’t make any outdoor plans! This is a forecast map displaying a strong storm that will drop buckets of water across Kitsap on Monday

Today was the definition of PERFECT fall weather. And I mean perfect. Crisp temperatures in the upper 40s, sunshine, a light wind and no rain (well, at least not in the daylight hours 😉 ). I know many of you enjoyed coming up for air today, but it appears we’ll be back in the fish tank soon enough. Before we get there, though, a blast of chilly air will visit this weekend.

After a tranquil Thursday, Friday will feature more in the way of clouds and rain. But high temperatures will be noticeably cooler in the low to mid 40s. That’s about where we average in winter! At night, snow levels will also plummet to 1,000′ and possibly even lower in the heavier showers. I’m not about to mention the “s” word, but hey…if you see some lumpy rain Friday night, consider yourself lucky! Lows will sink near freezing once skies clear.

Now here’s where it gets complicated: a strong tropical weather system will sucker-punch either B.C., Western Washington or somewhere in between, but weather models are confused as to where this storm system wants to go. If the firehose IS aimed at us, we could look at a prolonged period of steady, moderate to heavy rain for 48 hours straight—or more. This is a complex situation, so stay tuned as details change.

After a soaking end to the weekend/start to next week, look for pretty typical Washington rain and mountain snow.

Hey, any pattern that brings snow to the mountains is fine with me! 🙂

P.S. My official winter outlook will be released sometime next week…watch out for it!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Weather photos? E-mail them to me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

Just take a look at these breathtaking photos of the wind storm that raced along Cape Disappointment on Friday. This is at the north entrance to the Columbia River (photos taken by WesternUSAWx Forum poster “weathercrazy”):

Not only did this monster of a storm produce gigantic waves, but a funnel cloud in Enumclaw. This is the second funnel cloud to hit the area, the first occuring over Labor Day Weekend back in September (1st photo by Tyson Gambin of Enumclaw, 2nd photo by Steven Williams of Buckley):

As you can see, this storm was a biggie. Scott Sistek of KOMO 4 Weather writes: “A buoy out in the middle of it in the Gulf of Alaska reported a pressure of just 946 millibars, which is about 27.95″ on the mercury scale and just short of Category 4 hurricane strength, had it been a hurricane.” And just to think, as crazy as the weather was this weekend, it could have been worse!

And more good news: the mountains have been getting hammered. Check the Mountain Forecast pages under “More Information” for…well, more information 🙂

Have a great Sunday,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Weather Photos? Send them to me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

**An intense rain band is moving southeast from the northern tip of Hood Canal and will affect a great portion of Kitsap County this afternoon. It will be a fast-moving system, but could make travel tricky for a while. Please be safe out there!**

I have received many e-mails asking what the strange blue/green lights were that seemed to light up the whole sky late last night. I am almost certain it was caused by blown transformers, but how did they blow?

Quite frequently during storms these transformers and other electrical equipment tend to attract lightning. Because of the radical change in pressure and wind flow last night, a few thunder and lightning storms popped up around the area. Some of the lightning likely struck a transformer, thus causing it to blow. However, what you see when a transformer blows at night is quite spectacular!

There were also thousands without power yesterday because of the wind and rain. Driving home on the highway from Port Orchard, I could hardly see the dividing lines on the road. The rain was falling so hard and fast, my wipers couldn’t keep up and I became pretty tense. When I got home I let out a huge sigh of relief!

At work today many of the patients that came in had some wild stories about the weather and how it affected them last night. Do you have a story to share about the craziness last night? Feel free to use the comment section below! I’d like to hear about it 😉

Ok…I need to head back to work, but stay tuned for my Pee Wee Football Playoff forecast this evening!

~Matt

Whew! What a stormy day! November is finally kicking into gear and in a somewhat dramatic fashion. Rain isn’t all too rare here, but if you’re heading for the coast, mountains or north interior, get ready for a wind smackdown. Gusts exceeding 50 mph are expected in the previously mentioned areas with weaker wind speeds around the greater Seattle area. I’d say gusts as high as 30 mph, but not much more than that. By Friday morning some Kitsap locations could exceed an inch of rain, raising flooding concerns for the Skokomish River. This will have to be monitored closely. Here’s the latest updated Flood Watch issued by the NWS:

… Flood Watch remains in effect from 4 PM PST this afternoon
through late Friday night…

* the Skokomish River in Mason County is the river most likely
to rise above flood stage. River models currently show that
the Skokomish River could reach flood stage late Thursday
night and crest early Friday morning.

So far we have had 0.25” of rain with plenty more coming. Stay tuned for further developments…

On a lighter note, a fellow blog reader has requested a forecast for the Kitsap Pee Wee Football playoffs, so stay tuned for that special forecast tomorrow 😉

Make it a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

I try to get this information out before the Kitsap Sun, but alas they beat me to it. Regardless, there is a big fall storm headed our way for tomorrow which will produce up to an 1.50” of rain across the area with higher rainfall amounts in the mountains. After the storm passes Friday morning we’ll be under the influence of much colder air, with rain, clouds, sunbreaks and highs in the 40s to low 50s.

Please refer to the “Mountain Forecast” page of this blog for pass updates.

Here is the SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT issued by the National Weather Service in Seattle:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
555 AM PST WED NOV 4 2009

…RAPID CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IN STORE FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY…
…UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK…

AFTER A SUNNY AND WARM DAY TODAY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THE
WEATHER SITUATION WILL CHANGE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT CREATING A VARIETY OF WEATHER HAZARDS.

FOR THE COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR…WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS. RIDGETOP WINDS FOR THE OLYMPICS AND
LOWER SOUTH FACING SLOPES WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 65 MPH. RIDGETOP
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WILL ALSO BE
WINDY…WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS…COMBINING FOR
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE LESS THAN IN THE
MOUNTAINS…THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE THIS MUCH PRECIPITATION DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS…WITH PLENTY OF LEAVES POTENTIALLY
CLOGGING UP STORM DRAINS THIS TIME OF YEAR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

A VERY COOL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON BEHIND THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES…WHICH ARE UP NEAR 11000
FEET THIS MORNING,,,WILL DROP TO NEAR 3500 FEET FRIDAY. THE SNOW
LEVEL COULD GET AS LOW AS 2500 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAKER
WEATHER SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO REACH WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE…IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES. TRAVELERS USING THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER-LIKE
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST