I don’t have a whole lot of time to blog this evening, but at 4:30 PM the NWS issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting the potential for a very active day tomorrow weather-wise. And by active, they mean strong winds to our north (around the Strait of Juan de Fuca) and periods of rain and cold temperatures here in Kitsap.
But what makes this situation interesting is the potential for some wet snow to fall wherever moisture hangs around Friday evening and overnight. Snow levels will drop to 500′ by Friday evening, so any precipitation could become a chunky mix of rain and wet snow, cold rain, or brief snow, but this is a big “IF” situation: “IF we get precipitation heavy enought to allow a bit of snow, IF it’s cold enough by the time the precip gets here, IF you live in a hilly area that would support such snow,” etc. So don’t quote me on this! Just don’t be surprised if you see some chunky splats on your windshield tomorrow evening 😉
Good news is, what appeared to be heavy rain arriving this weekend looks relatively light as most of that would-be moisture takes aim to our north (a common thing during El Nino years). In fact, Saturday looks mostly dry.
Here’s the statement made by the NWS:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
430 PM PST THU NOV 12 2009
…ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY…
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING…BRINGING RAIN…MOUNTAIN SNOWS…LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS.
SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR INCLUDING THE ADMIRALTY INLET REGION.
WIND
SPEEDS IN THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH…MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE ISLAND COUNTY
AREA.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES…WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA…WIND OF THIS STRENGTH COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW
TREE LIMBS HERE AND THERE WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
COLDER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER ALREADY
LOW
SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD
OF
THE FRONT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND
500
FEET BY EVENING. THIS MEANS SOME OF THE HIGHEST HILLS AROUND
THE
REGION COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OR THE IMMEDIATE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS…LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
I’ll blog more about this tomorrow morning…
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com
7 DAY FORECAST (Can’t believe I added the first snowflakes of the season to my map!)
Matt do you think I have a shot at snow showers tmr. I am in southern bothell at 423 feet.
Well you might be able to get a shot out of a snow shower overnight during the evening i would say a mix but the Convergence zone is supposed to form which could drop the snow level below 500 feet so i would give you a 45% chance of it
Is there really a difference in 64 feet that makes me have less chance than people above 500?
Where do you think the conversion zone will set up that is what counts, I am hoping for north king county so you guys can get some too.
Yeah it is looking like north king county but who knows and yes it does make a diffrence on novelty hill where i live on my coler sach the top of it is at 510 FT and the bottom is 495 FT it was raining at the bottom of my coler sach and at the top it was snowing so it does make a diffrence
yes the convergence zone will play a major part in this event
Hey Matt,
How about the forecast for Bremerton High School at 10 am on Saturday?
Oh Colleen, AS IF I would forget about that 😉 I’ll be producing that forecast shortly.
Eric: If that PSCZ forms late enough, I would expect a mix of rain and snow. Really nothing more than that.
Sorry Matt. I got over excited. I am putting myself in time out for blurting out of turn. (smile).
You have every reason to be over excited! After this forecast, though, a picture of thanks just won’t cut it. I will be expecting double fudge brownies! (Kidding of course!)