Time for a blog post about the long range! I’ve been following quite a few weather trends over the past several days and while models are still waffling on all the major details, it appears there’s at least some sort of consensus on where we’re headed. First let’s take a look at what the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has to say about the next 6-10 days temp and precip wise:

So it appears we are headed towards a more fall-like weather pattern with temps in the 80s pretty much non-exsistent until further notice and an increased chance of rain, clouds and highs in the 60s. This is not exactly good news for a couple reasons:

• Labor Day Weekend, while not a washout by any means, looks cool and damp, making BBQ’s a bit less desirable this year
• Fall color doesn’t thrive in wet conditions. This is the reason why we had such a brilliant fall coloring last year. September and October of last year were much drier than normal (despite an early October mini-windstorm) with cool temperatures. This helped the tree colors progress brilliantly.

But then again, school is starting up soon, and the cool and wet weather couldn’t come at a better time. Nothing’s worse than sitting in a classroom with sunshine and highs in the 80s outside!

So here’s the long range forecast from September 6th through the 10th:

For the shorter term, we have some stubborn low clouds hanging around and they’ll likely stick around through the day. Tomorrow will start equally as gloomy, but the sun should break through enough to boost temperatures into the mid and upper 70s.

Seasonably warm weather continues Monday until the clouds and cooler temperatures slowly start to move in, overtaking the area by mid-late week next week.

Hope you have a fantastic day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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PART 1: The Puget Sound Has Been Missing Out on Global Warming?

I know, I know, I know. This is a HIGHLY controversial post 😉

Before Professor Cliff Mass tears into my flesh because of the above blog title, hear me out because what I’m about to share with you is very interesting. You can take the information I share and do whatever you want with it, but here’s my interpretation. Below is just half of the whole story, so stay tuned tomorrow for Part 2.

Mr. Steve VanWyk, Olympic College Physics Instructor, e-mailed me a few weeks ago about a perplexing temperature trend in the Puget Sound. Here’s a snip-it of his letter to me:

 “Recently I asked the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the U of Washingon about temperature trends in the Puget Sound area. They said there had been no warming over the last 25 years at Sea-Tac, Olympia or Bellingham. They also mentioned that 2008 had the coldest annual temperature in the Puget Sound within the past 20 years.”

When I read this, a part of me wasn’t too surprised, especially about the last statement: 2008 was a very cold year. But the other part of me was in question, especially since the 90s were largely “blowtorch winters” (as weather junkies call it) or warm winters with very little snow. I’d like to see their data…

A couple days later, Mr. VanWyk e-mailed me again and said that Bob Abel, Meteorology professor at OC, made a Kitsap Temperature Graph Plot which ran from 1950 to 2007 in the Kitsap Sun on August 10th, 2008. Mr. VanWyk made a similar graph from January 1960 to July 31st, 2009 highlighting the yearly average temperature at Bremerton National Airport. Here are his results (click on photo to enlarge):

Mr. VanWyk ran this by both Bob Abel and the Weather Department at the UW and they found thatwhile there has definitley been warming in Kitsap (specifically) over the past 50 or so years, the recent plunge in annual temperatures from 2005-2008 has forced the 50 year mean to neutral, if not slightly cooler. Why are we cooling all of a sudden? And so rapidly? The answers will be in tomorrow’s post, I’m afraid. But I’ll give you a hint: PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Believe me, the name may sound boring, but the study of the PDO is fascinating!

For now, just mentally chew on the information above. Please remember, this in no way debunks global warming, because as we all know, land and ocean temperatures are measured on a global scale, not regional. But still…interesting stuff! I’d like to thank Mr. VanWyk for putting so much time into getting this information to us.

Whew! A lot of brain candy, huh? I’ll make the 7 day brief: very warm tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s, but cooler with clouds and showers Friday and Saturday before a seasonable pattern takes hold for the rest of next week.

I need to go take a nap… 😉

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Contact me at forecastingkitsap@live.com

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I know many of you have been waiting for this. Something about fall and winter predictions excites everyone, and even though it is late August and it seems too early to be talking about winter, this is typically the time when predictions are made. So let’s cut right to the chase. Here’s a snip-it from the Winter 2009-2010 map. I just included the northwest. You’ll have to buy the almanac to see the rest of the nation as well as the Summer 2010 prediction ;)):

Hmmmm…”Cool, snowy” huh? And look at how that huge snowflake is sitting right on top of Kitsap! Could we possibly have 4 cold, wet and snowy winters in a row? Later this week I’ll explain why this is certainly possible and why I believe we are entering a colder weather regime that will result in harsher winters to come. But for now, let’s pick out a few highlights from the Almanac itself. Again, I can’t be too specific because the publishers will likely have me by the throat, but I wanted to comment on just a few things I saw in the specific forecast for the PNW:

• First of all, they mention that overall temperatures and precip will be near average, but snowfall will be above average. This is GREAT news for the 2010 Vancouver Olympics.
• November and December look cooler than normal with a particularly chilly December. In fact, for December, the almanac is predicting flooding, “very cold temperatures” and, get this, a “snowstorm” midmonth. I’ve noticed they are typically a week or two early with these predictions, so if this is the case, maybe another white Christmas?
• The second half of winter looks quite mild with below normal precip, though storms and snow are still predictied in early January and mid February.

So in conclusion, a very cool and stormy late fall/early winter followed by a much calmer finish to the winter season. Kind of like what we just went through this past winter, except stormier.

Now, there are three different almanacs you can buy at Barnes and Noble: The Old Farmers 2010 Almanac (the original), The Farmers Almanac 2010 (a new, hip version with a completely different layout) and The Farmers 2010 Almanac. This all may seem confusing if you haven’t skimmed through all three, but I buy all of them every year. I have found that each almanac contains a  few valuable nuggets and when you put their predictions all together, you get a very accurate forecast.

Each almanac is about $5-$6, so it is very affordable and an entertaining read, especially if you’re into astronomy/astrology/astrometeorology.

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Want a personalized forecast?  E-mail me at forecastingkitsap@live.com

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Hope all of you back home are enjoying the warm weather! This feels like nothing compared to what we melted through last month, right? 😉 Here in Provo, UT, highs have been in the 90s but the heat is so dry and the buildings are so cold because of the AC that it really doesn’t feel that bad at all.

Now that I have an extra minute, I thought I should talk about the accuracy concerning the last long range prediction I made back on August 3rd which highlighted the possiblility of returning to a cooler and wetter weather regime by mid August. Sure enough, that ended up happening, but let’s see if the details were accurate. Here’s the long range forecast map I made on August 3rd:

Let’s break it down (numbers from data recorded at the Bremerton National Airport):

• Tuesday, August 11th, 2009: Overcast, Rain 69/57. My Forecast: Overcast, Rain 67 degrees. I’d say this forecast held together surprisingly well considering before the 11th we hadn’t had measurable precip for a at least a month. I’m impressed the models held together and offered up rain as forecasted! I’ll give this one an A, even if I was a couple degrees off the high temperature.
• Wednesday, August 12th, 2009: Mostly Cloudy, 73/57. My Forecast: Partly Sunny, 75 degrees. The sun didn’t peak out as much as predicted, though I definitley remember more sun this day than the day previous. I suppose the models hit on the head that we would have a better day Wednesday compared to Tuesday, but it just wasn’t precise. Still, I’ll give this forecast an A-.
• Thursday, August 13th, 2009: Cloudy, Rain 62/53. My Forecast: Cloudy, Rain 68 degrees. The cloud/precip forecast was spot on, but the temperatures were several degrees cooler than predicted. I’ll say a B+ for this one since cloud/precip forecasts are typically the most valuable part of a forecast.
• Friday, August 4th, 2009: Mostly Cloudy, Rain, 64/48. My Forecast: Mostly Cloudy, 65 degrees. This forecast could have been spot on if only I included some rain. I’ll have to dock some points! 🙂 Overall, though, the forecast was pretty darn accurate. I’ll give myself a B+
• Saturday, August 15th, 2009: Partly Sunny, 64/48. My Forecast: Partly Sunny, 75. This was the day I left for Provo. Kind of odd the temperature was the exact same as the day before, but it happens. The cloud type was accurate, but the temperatures were 11 degrees off! So…I’ll say C+/B-, depending on what you felt was the most important in the forecast.

Overall, I’d say this long range prediction was a B+/A- job. The models definitley handled themselves well. Have I converted any non-believers of long range forecasting? 😉

I have to take off now. Have a fantastic day! Boy do I have some cool weather news to share later this week. I picked up a 2010 Old Farmers Almanac at the bookstore and it’s painting quite an interesting picture for this winter here. More info soon…

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions or Comments? Email me @: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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