Mother Nature is such a trickster. If she were an actual woman, I think I’d be her best friend. And with the latest changes coming to the weekend forecast, I may grow to love her all the more. Why?

Believe it or not, tomorrow and Sunday are both going to feature a chance for thunderstorms randomly throughout the day. Does this mean our heatwave will be delayed? Not exactly. There’s an “upper level low” currently spinning around Eastern Washington (“low” meaning moist/active) with a ridge of high pressure to our west (“ridge” meaning high and dry!) So until that Upper Level Low, or ULL, fizzles completely, we’ll continue the chance for periods of random showers/thunderstorms during the weekend. And what better timing, because this weekend is WHALING DAYS WEEKEND IN SILVERDALE (though, it starts today)! For more info on Whaling Days and the activities involved, click here .

Now let me just say there is indeed a chance that this weekend will not be as warm as advertised because of  that pesky ULL. If it decides to move back our direction, which one of the weather models is suggesting, we could be looking at a dramatic increase in thunderstorm threats all across the lowlands, more clouds and cooler temperatures. If it decides to hang out east where it will die off, as suggested by the majority of the models, we could look at a headstart to this heatwave. Don’t ya just love the probabilities that go into forecasting?

But worry not, heat lovers! Models have been overwhelmingly consistent on the REAL country-fried weather beginning Monday with highs soaring into the low to mid 90s under a blazing ball o’ sunshine. Tuesday and Wednesday are nearly identical with highs in the mid 90s under sunny skies. Thursday and Friday are cooler, but the marine push the models were advertising later Thursday into Friday has disintegrated and has been pushed back until Saturday or Sunday…if even that. So this is still looking like one heck of a heatwave!

I would also like (well, not exactly “like” like…) to point out that overnight temperatures Sunday night through Friday night (perhaps beyond) will be unseasonably warm, only dropping into the mid and upper 60s, especially mid week. This means some very uncomfortably hot nights for those without A/C. Maybe sleep outside a few of those nights? 

Speaking of which, if you’re a fan of good ol’ meteor showers, I’ll be issuing a blog post either tomorrow or Sunday about upcoming showers, some of which will occur right in the middle of our heatwave! So stay tuned!

Have a fantastic evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

I’d like to thank Forecasting Kitsap reader “Shawn” for bringing this subject up. I had read an article about these rare clouds a week or so ago and intended on doing a post about it but never got around to doing it.

The above photo was taken by Dr. Dale Ireland who happens to be quite famous in these parts for his stunning weather photos and time lapse videos. All of his productions are captured along the Hood Canal facing the Olympics. The particular image you see above captures one of nature’s rarest meteorological occurances: noctilucent clouds.

Nocti–wha???

Noctilucent (meaning “night shining” in Latin) clouds are the highest clouds in the atmosphere, located 50 miles above the Earth . They are very finicky, only occuring in the right conditions during a specific time of year—summer. A more thorough explanation can be found here .

To see the cool (although short) webcam by Dr. Ireland, click here and to see his home site, click here .

See if you can spot them as the sun sets/rises and if you do, be sure to send pictures to me at forecastingkitsap@live.com!

In other news, the heat is still in the forecast and the National Weather Service has issued a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT highlighting this threat:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
432 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2009

WAZ001-503>519-240000-
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
432 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2009

…HOT WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK…

THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 95
RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. ALL AREAS OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON COULD BE AFFECTED.

THE FIRST REALLY HOT DAY WILL BE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
MODELS PREDICT THE HOT WEATHER COULD LAST INTO WEDNESDAY OR BEYOND.

UNLIKE MANY PREVIOUS HOT SPELLS…THIS ONE COULD ALSO AFFECT THE
COAST AND OTHER PLACES NEAR THE WATER. ALSO IT IS RARE TO HAVE
MANY HOT DAYS IN A ROW IN WESTERN WASHINGTON…BUT THIS HEAT WAVE
COULD LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

WESTERN WASHINGTON IS HAVING A DRY SUMMER…AND NO RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE DURING
THE HOT WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF AIR STAGNATION DURING
THIS PERIOD.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE MORE STATEMENTS ABOUT THIS
EVENT OVER THE COMING DAYS

I’ll be on a conference call with the National Weather Service along with many other weather junkies tomorrow afternoon and I’ll report on what new information I get from the call tomorrow evening.

Take care!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

**Note: there’s a new poll on the right hand side. What do you guys think about this heatwave potential?**

Well folks, it appears that we’ve converged on a solution. I know, I know, for the past several days the weather models have been “flaky” at best (oh gosh, that reminds me, I’d love to put snow in the forecast right now! Ah, what the heck…)

KITSAP 7 DAY FORECAST

Ok fine, let’s just face it: according to now virtually every weather model out there we’re going to bake and I’m even wondering if some KITSAP locations might see a 100 degree reading or more throughout this thing…hmmm…

Anyway, today we reached 89 degrees which was just a degree shy of the predicted 88 degrees and a degree shy of a 90 degree reading! But don’t worry, as if you haven’t heard for a week now, we’ll definitley get to that point.

A cooler day is on tap for tomorrow with highs about 5-10 degrees cooler than today. Thursday will be a tad warmer with the same amount of sunshine: a lot.

But then here’s where it all starts. Friday is now looking very warm with highs nudging 90 again—pretty much what we did today will happen Friday. But wait! There’s more!

Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday offer up just a little more heat each day with low 90s Saturday, low to mid 90s Sunday, mid 90s Monday…and so on. You get the drift. But now that I think about it, I bet many of you don’t even care what the actual numbers are this weekend. When standing outside, it doesn’t matter whether it’s 89 or 95 degrees outside, it is still blasted hot. So, drink LOTS of water, wear sunscreen, protect your loveable pets…you guys know the drill.

I’m not going to talk about a set date for a cool down quite yet as models are still unsure about when that should happen. Let’s just focus on one extreme before we get to the next 😉

OH! And, let me just say, I can read your minds. What you’re thinking right now is: “OK….I think Matt’s REALLY bored or weather news is REALLY slow lately, because all he’s been talking about for 7 days is the heatwave!” My answer to that thought is: you’re right, I am bored and weather news hasn’t exactly been hoppin’, but I’ll mix it up tomorrow and give the heatwave news a break 🙂

Have a great evening and stock up on ice!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

Remember this blog post when we get to next weekend so you can look at the above picture while sucking on a popsicle next to the fan…

We can’t consider this summer a good one without having at least ONE good heatwave and it appears this upcoming week will feature just that. I believe this is one of the ways Mother Nature is saying “I’m sorry” for providing an extended period of clouds and cooler temperatures earlier this month. In any case, get ready for some very warm temperatures to occur in two spurts:

1) Early this week

2) Next weekend

In some ways, this heatwave is actually coming a little earlier than expected and it’s taking a slightly different form than first imagined. So here are the details:

Tomorrow and Tuesday will feature similar weather: mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 80s—pretty typical for mid July.

Wednesday and Thursday we are going to enter a brief intermission as our ever-so-famous marine push moves through, dropping temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s Wednesday and mid to upper 70s on Thursday with partly sunny skies.

Friday is the recovery day with temps warming up into the low to mid 80s, but not warming much beyond that because of the recent marine push but the BIG story will be this weekend. Models have generally converged on a very hot solution for the weekend which could challenge some records across the area. Just to give you an idea of what we’re talking about, Sea-Tac’s record high temperature on Saturday is 94 degrees from 1988 and 92 degrees on Sunday from 1971.

At this time, I think we’ll at least break one record, and that is most likely to occur on Sunday. Regardless, I expect widespread 90s by this upcoming weekend which means you gotta hit the pools early! Overnight lows will be in the 60s, so expect warm nights as a result of this heatwave as well.

Long range models break down the 90 degree readings by early next week, but we do remain in the “very warm” territory with 80s persisting for a while.

Definitely stay tuned for updates! The closer we get to this monster, the more information we’ll have.

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

I work at Naumann/Johnson Orthodontics in Silverdale and Port Orchard and they do something fun every year that brings the staff and patients together for a day of fun. I’m talking about their “Wild Waves” day, where each patient and a friend can enjoy a full day at the water/amusement park…for free! So that’s where I’ll be tomorrow and I guess it’s safe to say don’t expect a blog post!

But for all of my readers who are patients or parents of patients of Dr. Naumann or Johnson, listen up because I’m predicting STELLAR weather for your day tomorrow. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with clear blue sky so all water activities will be a go! Have fun and be safe!

Saturday will be another sunny and warm day, but we’ll add in a few more high clouds and more comfortable temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s.

A bigger marine push moves through on Sunday before more sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s prevails next week.

And about the heatwave predicted for late next weekend into the week after? It’s now looking a lot less rabid and more humane with low to mid 80s seeming more likely than upper 80s/low 90s. But stay tuned, because some models are still insistent on cranking up the heat.

Have a great day tomorrow and have a wonderful weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

Darn it 😉

Scott Sistek, KOMO 4 Weather Producer, hosted this story on his blog and I just had to share it. Keith Thorpe, with the Peninsula Daily News, captured this lightning photo Sunday night illustrating what appears to be a “U” and “W”. And, to top it all off, the backdrop couldn’t be any better with a dark purple accompanying the strikes. (This still hasn’t persuaded me to become a Huskies fan, by the way…) You can buy a print of the above photo at peninsuladailynews.com .

But if you happen to be a Coug, I’m sure we can spot a few good crimson sunsets within the next couple days as skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the 80s. We cool off this weekend with  gray skies returning to the area, but the clouds will break once again through next week with gradually warming temperatures and more crimson sunsets instead of that gray stuff we’ve seen so much of this month!

**HEATWAVE UPDATE: Long range models have back off somewhat on the heat late next week into next weekend and the following week. This is good for those who don’t want crimson skin! This is not to say all bets are off, however. This is what we call an “outlier” model—a model that advertises something very different than what it was advertising consistently before. For those who like the EXTREME heat, hope the models turn back around!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST