…They both can’t make up their minds.

And they’re both really good at what they do.

So, we are pretty much in a typical February lull: sunshine, mild temperatures, and cool nights. Over the past 10 years, we’ve had at least some period of extended sunshine and mild weather in February, and this month is no exception.

If you talk to most weather geeks in the Northwest right now, they will tell you this pattern is absolutely miserable. I don’t mind this stretch of sunny and warm weather, but the extent of this winter ridge HAS been pretty darn persistent. Even the dry weather lovers would have to agree.

When’s the next chance for a bit of rain? Well, the models have had a hard time making up their minds: the Mariners or the Braves—uh, sorry I mean Saturday or Sunday. Currently, the latest models have backed off on their call for a dry Saturday and are now introducing the chance for rain moving into the area Saturday evening continuing into Sunday morning before shutting off until Monday.

Until then expect the next couple of days to be mild and sunny. How mild? Most likely the Braves, unfortunately—excuse me, I mean highs in the mid to upper 50s. Sorry…this Ken Griffey business is intense. I don’t normally care about sports in general, but it’d be nice to have our Griffey back in Seattle. Anyway, today was 51 degrees, it would not surprise me to reach near 60 on Friday. We’ll see how that turns out.

For now, stay tuned to the latest sports news because the weather is not nearly as exciting at the moment (oh my gosh…I did not just suggest people turn to sports news instead of weather news! I need to see a doctor…)

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

I don’t think the Groundhog has been very reliable so far…

We’ve had extreme versions of winter AND spring within the first couple weeks of this month, but it appears spring may outdo winter by the end of the week as sunshine and some very spring-like temperatures will take over the Northwest.

Take a look at this map showing surface temperatures at 1 PM Friday:

The reddish-orange color means high temperatures in the mid and upper 50s. In fact, according to this map, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 60º readings in some spots by the end of the week. Stay tuned, because if models remain consistent on this warmth, a nice kayak trip in Liberty Bay may be in order…

Models have been quite inconsistent on when they want to break down this pattern. My best guess is midweek next week, and by then we should be getting some snow in the mountains. For now, it’ll just be icy and dry. Blech.

In the meantime, have a fantastic week full of sunshine and mild temps!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

Yeah there were a few sprinkles this evening, but that’s pretty much all you can expect for the next 7 days or so as a big ridge of high pressure sets up shop (yet again!) over our area delivering partly to mostly sunny and mild days with mostly clear and frosty nights. This pattern isn’t all too rare for late winter, but it is pretty darn rare for these dry periods to be lasting so long.

Remember that snow event on the 10th? Of course you do…how could you forget? Well, we picked up 0.09” of precipitation, officially ending our dry streak from mid January. But since the 11th, we’ve only picked up a lousy 0.01” of rain so we have started yet another spell of dry weather.

This most current spell doesn’t look to last nearly as long (knock on wood) but it will last a good part of this week. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies tomorrow through Friday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s (maybe even warmer…). The clouds and showers are scheduled to move back into the area on Saturday, possibly ending our dry streak.

The long range has us getting extreme yet again for later this month into March, so stay tuned on that one. I think it would be a big mistake to officially call this winter over.

Have a great day tomorrow!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST

Those of you who know me well know I am not very romantic, and Valentine’s Day is typically the day that pours salt into that wound. So yesterday, as I was thinking about how unromantic my day was going to be today, I came across a poem, but this isn’t just ANY poem. It is a weather poem about our current split-flow dilema! I think you will enjoy this. I don’t know who to give credit to, because I didn’t write it, but pretend I am reading this in a very low, Valentine’s Day-type voice while holding a box of chocolates:

SPLIT-FLOW, YOU MUST GO

“Splitting moisture, why do you go,
Plunging south round the California low?

We’re left with flurries and a faceted pack,
Amid surface crusts making a difficult track.

Surface hoar forms and is gently buried,
Awaiting a load to be downhill carried.

Winter o winter where have you gone,
Leaving us little but this whimsical song.

Split flows and ridges are our mid-winter curse,
At least it shouldn’t get too much worse.

No rain or pineapples in the long term mix,
Unless the forecast models are playing tricks.

So hang in there and watch the snow,
The little new loading can be tricky you know.

For shallow slabs on weaker layers,
Can challenge even the wisest players.”

I got a pretty good kick out of that, and I hope it’s not just because I am a weather geek…

Anyway, I hope everyone had a good day today, even those who don’t have Valentine’s. Tomorrow will be very similar to today: mostly cloudy skies with periods of sun and highs will be in the low to mid 40s. Some light rain moves in late, but it won’t be a big deal.

Partly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 40s will be the theme through mid week before the clouds and showers move in for later in the week/into the weekend. It actually looks like Saturday may be our next chance for mountain snow! High temperatures will warm up for Thursday and Friday, however, into the upper 40s and lower 50s which is normal for this time of year.

Long range models are more moist, but still painfully dry.

Have a great rest of your weekend!

Matthew Leach

Kitsap Weather

7 DAY FORECAST