Kitsap precipitation nearly normal during
the past water year

Despite concerns about drought in much of Washington state, Kitsap County came through the water year (ending Sept. 30) with precipitation just about normal.

Precipitation at Hansville over the past water year.
Precipitation at Hansville over the past water year. (Click to enlarge) // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

As you can see from the graphs on this page, precipitation in 2015 (blue line) fairly well tracked the average (pink line). The previous water year (orange line) was more concerning, although both 2014 and 2015 water years ended in fairly decent shape.

Areas in North Kitsap ended the year somewhat above average. In Hansville, the annual total was 34.3 inches, compared to an average of 30.2 inches. In Central and South Kitsap, many areas were slightly below normal. In Holly, the annual rainfall was 69.4 inches, compared to an average of 76.6 inches.

Hansville precipitation over the past water year.
Precipitation at Bremerton National Airport over the past water year. (Click to enlarge) // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

The Kitsap Peninsula largely relies on groundwater for its water supplies, and we have gotten enough rains to keep the aquifers in fairly decent shape, according to Mark Morgan of Kitsap Public Utility District.

“Aquifers experienced their typical summer drawdown, driven more by demand than by drought, but (it was) nothing exceptional,” Mark said in a summary of the water year.

Concerns about drought in other parts of the state were largely based on a lack of snowpack coming out of last winter.

Precipitation at Bremerton National Airport over the past water year.
Precipitation at Holly over the past water year. (Click to enlarge) // Graphic: Kitsap PUD

Meanwhile, flows in many streams hit low-flow conditions a month earlier than normal this past summer, but some maintained their typical flow, Mark said. Adequate streamflows are critical for coho salmon, which spend a year in freshwater, as well as for year-round residents, such as trout.

The forecast for the winter is based on strong El Nino conditions (see map below), which means that sea surface temperatures off the coast of South America will be significantly higher than usual — up to 3.4 degrees F (2 degrees C). Above-normal temperatures are expected across the western U.S. as well as the northern tier states and Eastern Seaboard, with the greatest chance of above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

Sea surface temperatures are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. NOAA map
Sea surface temperatures today are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. (Click to enlarge) // NOAA map

Below-average temperatures are expected in New Mexico and West Texas. For details, see the prediction maps at the bottom of this page or check out NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

While much of the country will benefit from greater rainfall, below normal precipitation is expected for the Northwest and areas in the Eastern Great Lakes, New York and northern New England.

Climatologists predict with 95 percent certainty that the El Nino will continue through the winter in the Northern Hemisphere before gradually weakening in the spring.

Temperatures are predicted to be warmer this winter across the northern states. NOAA graphic
Temperatures this fall are predicted to be above average across the northern states. // NOAA graphic
Precipitation is predicted to be less than normal in the Pacific Northwest. NOAA graphic
Precipitation is predicted to be less than normal in the Pacific Northwest. // NOAA graphic

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