More on silly numbers and gas bagsDecember 13th, 2012 by terrybenish
Since 2001 there have been ninety playoff teams and eleven World Series winners.
Dave Cameron who is apexing on TV this week on the Clubhouse confidential pointed out that its not necessary to hit home runs to win the world series. He goes on to paint a picture of a blind squirrel finding an acorn and uses the example of the 2012 San Francisco Giants that hit 103 home runs and scored 715 runs and won the World Series.
I thought really that is the point? Maybe he’s right let us examine it. 90 playoff teams, 11 winners, what did the other ten look like:
2002 Angels 152
2003 Marlins 157
2004 Boston 222
2005 Chisox 200
2006 Stl. 184
2007 Boston 166
2008 Phil 214
2009 NYY 244
2010 SF 162
2011 Stl. 162
2012 SF 103
All other things equal I’d say you need to hit at least 150 homers a year to have a chance. A 1/11 chance. Nine percent odds.
During the last eleven seasons there has been nine playoff teams out of 90 that hit less than 150 home runs. Ten percent of all the playoff teams.
54 teams out of the 90 hit between 150 to 199 home runs in a year. Sixty percent. That would seem to give a team a more realistic chance than 103. Is it possible? The Giants showed that. Is it likely? Suckers chance.
The more interesting thing to do instead of poking at gasbags is to note that National League teams with more balanced lineups have won the last three world series. More balanced in that they use players that in have gap power and occasional power as opposed to all power guys. The 2009 Yankees were the last AL team to win and had 915 runs scored and hit 244 home runs