How many runs do you have to score to make the playoffsDecember 13th, 2012 by terrybenish
There have been ninety playoff teams since the 2001 season when the Mariners last participated. Both leagues. I ranked them by runs scored into fifty run brackets because I thought it would be interesting to observe from a trend perspective and to start to think about how many runs do you have to score to make the playoffs, or how few etc. Lots of observables, but let’s start with some basic groups:
650-699 runs scored: 4 teams
700-749 runs scored: 18 teams
750-799 runs scored: 25 teams
800-849 runs scored: 21 teams
850-900 runs scored: 15 teams
900-949 runs scored: 5 teams
950-999 runs scored: 2 teams
The outliers are the most interesting usually, Boston and New York scored 962 and 969 in 2003 and 2007, respectively. Yankees lost to Indians in division series and in 2003 the Red Sox lost to Yankees in league championship series. But I’m going to say it’s a lock if you score 950 runs or more that you’ll make the playoffs. Scoring over 900 runs is almost a lock, the one team that did and did not make it to the playoffs was the 2008 Rangers with 901 runs scored, but they allowed 967 runs scored.
Four teams during that period made the playoffs and scored 650-699 runs. Cincinatti in 2012 scored 669 runs. In 2005 two teams made it scoring 684 and 693 runs. San Diego and Houston and lastly the 2010 Ginats made it to the playoffs scored 697 and won the World Series. During the period observed 88 different teams scored 699 runs or less. So the probability of getting to the playoffs if you score 699 runs or less is 4 in 88, roughly 4.5%…Suckers odds.
So six teams in the two extreme parts of our bell curve made the playoffs and one of them won the whole enchilada. The other day Dave Cameron wrote a piece about the Mariners signing RA Dickey to pursue this low runs scored, lower runs allowed as a path to build the ball club and try to win and make the playoffs.
Conceptually possible certainly, it presents in the sense that it would be a team that rested on all aspects of the game and achieved balance. Not a lot of margin for error, however. Bullpen would be more focused on the other four starters as Dickey is an innings eater. The closer must no falter. The team if past is prologue would need to score more than they had recently to even make it into the 650-699 bracket and the one World Series winner from that bracket the Giants of 2010 scored 697 runs so that is a fifty run improvement relying solely on the kids on the roster now getting better or someone down below filtering up and not being buried by Wedge.
Less than a five (5) percent chance. In the Dickey scenario they would need to hope Jaso and Montero could actually catch him or that the Ms could sign another catcher that could do that and hit.
Don’t be surprised, if there are no further signings, when Stefen Romero shows up and gets some innings in right field this spring.