Peabody: Life, Friends Baseball

Some of this will be a rehash of reporting already done, but it is worthy of a distinct set of words.
We’re going to talk about two Mariners, Brendan Ryan and Dustin Ackley and concepts like Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Range Factor and Wins Above Replacement Player (WAR) which are common currency amongst Sabermetric folks and maybe are not the be all that they’re supposed to be.

There has been great consternation and effort amongst baseball analysts and writers both regarding measurable defensive stats for years, because fielding percentage was so inadequate and misleading a stat to measure if a player was a great or poor defender. People started using range factor, a stat from the mind of Bill James as a way to capture the best short stops etc.

Within the past seven or eight years UZR has come to be used as the best measure. The problem is that it is at best flawed and at its worse misleading. If you want a definition of UZR a good link to go to is from Dave Gershman:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/23/2184889/the-background-breakdown-of-uzr

Here is an exhaustive discussion on why UZR is a terrible stat:

http://www.fangraphs.com/forums/topic.php?id=3235

Last little bit before the discussion, UZR is a big component of WAR, which tries to give a single number as to the value of a player. If the defensive component is broken, I suspect the whole thing is, unless we’re back to the days of recent past where defense is unfathomable, so let’s not discuss it. That was what passes for a plug, because I think WAR is very inadequate and for a bunch of statisticians way, way too simple. In the case of defense, an analyst needs to look at all the individual stats, range arm etc and vote that way. The whole replacement player thing is basically a long wave average, a statistical regression to the mean. In the short run it misses changes in the game and in the long run, well in the long run, well shoot we all move on.

So Brendan Ryan won the Fielding Bible Award as the best short stop in baseball, hands down. Here is the link to the 2012 Awards and the voting panel includes: 1. Bill James 2. Peter Gammons 3. Hal Richman 4. Joe Posnanski 5. John Dewan 6. Doug Glanville 7. Mark Simon 8. Rob Neywer 9. Tom Tango and three tie breakers.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_2012_fielding_bible_awards_/

Brendan Ryan lost the Gold Glove award to J.J. Hardy of the Orioles. Hardy is a good short stop and for a short stop a very good hitter. That last factoid sort dropped into the discussion like a bee doing a header into your chocolate milk, as in why did you write that? Well Gold Glove awards are voted on by team managers and a few coaches. The Orioles made the playoffs, the vote for Hardy is a traditional reward for that fact and a recognition of his contributions. Is it correct? Statistically, probably not at all, but it’s what has been done forever and a day.

Ryan is probably the best short stop since Ozzie Smith was in his prime. So what about Dustin Ackley? I don’t want to be guilty of the same goofy bias of the Gold Glove voters, so I won’t say he’s a terrible hitter, because Ryan is worse even than him, so I won’t say it. I’m left to wonder why he’s in the discussion, except to speculate that the managers might have said, “Well shoot-fire, he can’t hit a lick so he must be good defensively, because they run him out there all the time.”

The Fielding Bible folks do not seem to have talked about Ackley at all. Ackley may not be even the best second baseman in the Mariner organization, Kyle Seager is a much better second baseman statistically and to the eye, but then he is playing third base and was drafted below Ackley a couple of years ago. At the end of the day Nick Franklin might be better too.

Larry Stone of the Times has a list of potential trade targets. One thousand nine hundred and forty four word post that is his take on things, link at bottom. They are not the names I’ve heard coming out of the Mariners, Geoff Baker wrote of the targets in the Royals organization that I had heard from inside the Mariners as well. Since Geoff’s piece sort of outed the Royals, perhaps they’re getting superior offers, or as so much of this, it’s disinformation upon real stuff as organizations attempt to figure out how to emulate the Giants, winner of two of three World Series.

What is singular about the Giants, say as opposed to Yankees or Tigers and maybe more similar to the Rays? Well the Giants spend a lot more than the Rays, so it’s not a perfect analogy, but I think that can be explained off as the Giants are not bound by issues of player control as the Rays are. The similarity is great pitching, great pitching in all aspects, starters, long guys, set up guys and closers, left handers. Very well composed as a staff.

I’m going to cut to the chase and bring you back to the piece written by Stone. He advocates or reports, I’m not sure, that the Ms will trade Felix or any of the great young pitchers or all of them to get hitters and hope they have enough pitching left. The Mariners actually are very similar, right now to the Giants, pitching wise. But his piece says they run away from that. Not sure that’s a good thing to do.

Secondly, the Giants have a great, great young catcher in Buster Posey. Great in every possible way. The Ms have a great young catcher on the way in Mike Zunino. There have been lamentations in the press and from manager Wedge about the passing, career wise, of Miguel Olivo. Wedge has waxed about his defensive prowess, which I have sort of explained ten times maybe, is non-existent. So let’s hope Zunino makes it and is what he looks like he might be. Posey’s the Giant’s best hitter. Zunino if he holds true to what he’s shown, would be too.

The Giants catch the ball and make plays. So do the Mariners. Team wise the Mariners at the end of August had been flirting with having a positive run differential for the year and then September was musical chairs like the previous year and the team went into the ditch and could not score for love nor money.

Time will tell

http://seattletimes.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2019562620_mariners_best_route_for_bat_ma.html

Geoff Baker takes time to sit in front of piano, unfurls fore finger of right hand begins banging same note over and over again. Does not matter if correct or not, matters that for at least a few more months Seattle will have a newspaper and sole voice is heard. After that Seattle gets its news from Tacoma and Bremerton and Everett.

Link below.

http://seattletimes.com/html/marinersblog/2019553502_world_series_champion_giants_p.html

It was late Saturday afternoon. After taking a quick lead against Stanford, the same story once again unfolded and the Cougars lost. Jim is a very talented writer who doubles as the Gracie to to Kevin Calabro’s George Burns daily on 710ESPN radio. What was a duo, now has Jim talking to empty chairs and stand ins as the disappearance of Calabro stretches out to months.

Jim previously wrote for the Seattle PI and had an earlier persona called the “drill” that was Hunter Thompson-like and chronicled a hard drinking gambler, sort of a fear and loathing in Seattle kind of thing, that went over the heads of most people that read, which probably included his editors, however, if there ever was a home for a great writer it was the PI as opposed to the Times whose true colors have recently been revealed as a pseudo-journalistic enterprise like Fox. As a beat guy he covered the Sonics too.

So with the demise of the PI Jim has continued to write and write well as this frustrated Cougar-rooter, not sure about the roto-connections, whose heart bleeds all over the page with each screw up, week after week by the Cougars. The Cougars buoyed by conference TV money and an ex-Oregon Athletic Director in Bill Moos, hired an out of work coach that would not be touched by any other program in America due to his history of physically and verbally abusing players in his program. Craig James an ESPN analyst and former player, something Leach is not, stood up for his son and has been vilified for doing it. Leach was fired.

None of that bothered Moos, who learned his slithery ways at the feet of Phil Knight, Moos then lied to the previous coach Paul Wulff and traveled to the Florida Keys and threw millions at Leach. So far, the team seems to have regressed and week to week Leach’s old persona is being revealed. He’s called the team empty corpses, then called his receivers un-tough, wimps in other words. Then yesterday, he benched his All-American receiver Marquess Wilson for Domique Williams who he said played better.

Most of the reporters in Seattle and Spokane are Cougar grads and seem unwilling to write anything critical of Leach or the Cougars. Jim is no exception.

WSU has two wins and a bunch of losses. They beat Eastern Washington which is a DII school and UNLV which technically is a DI team. The thing that better qualifies the win against UNLV is that the Running Rebels is that their record is 1-9 so far, give or take a loss or two.

Rather than remark about the accumulating evidence that WSU might be better off in the Big Sky conference as a D-IAA school Jim pours himself a shot and writes stuff about the Huskies and how much he hates them. He grew up in Redmond and I suspect that he was not admitted by UW and instead went to WSU, but I can’t confirm that.

His vitriol explodes virtually in every media outlet that you can think possible. There is Twitter, Facebook, the new cyber PI, the Kitsap Sun, ESPN710′s blogs. He will talk about it too, on the radio and ask him to come to a Tavern near you and he will come and have fun and tell stories and attract people. Truth be told, he’s dying inside as each week goes by.

Last night he was actively wishing for a Beaver win and was in high dungeon when the UW won and its exuberant fans stormed the field after the victory. Sniffing as if such behavior was inappropriate of how fans of a program should behave.

Really?

How would he know? The cougars have won once in a while over their history, but that has to be ascribed to statistical randomness. The worst program in the history of PAC-12 or PAC-10.

Appropriate behavior at WSU games is not passing out or throwing up on yourself until the game
is over.

Jim’s a cougar and hates the Huskies. When the new super marketeer Larry Scott signs up Baylor and Tulane and drops WSU and OSU and the Cougars join the Big Sky, let’s see who he is angry at.
http://jimmoorethego2guy.com/2012/10/dawgs-luck-out-against-beavers/

I can’t confirm this story, but my source was a short reporter I used to know and apparently it’s all over Whitman County.

Leach as I’m told wanted to get out of the tiny fish bowl that is Pullman and was told that Sonny’s in Washtucna had great fried chicken so he took his staff out there for chicken and beer.

They ran into Bill Moos, nearly passed out at the bar, mumbling about making the worse hire of his career.

Leach says, “Why do they call this Sonny’s? It says its Frank’s.”

Moos starts to shake his head, saying something about how he doesn’t get it, then he had to rush to the bathroom and was not seen again.

The coaching staff went home and told the team they could not twitter.

Now if the Cougars were not on television again, which being on the PAC12 Network is virtually the same thing, nobody will witness or tell about Leach sapping his receivers.

Go Dawgs!

In this morning’s Mariner’s Blog in the Seattle Times Geoff Baker has a terrific piece on James Paxton and Nick Franklin in the Arizona fall League. Link below.

He suggests that both James Paxton and Nick Franklin are on the fast-track to the major leagues and suggests that they will be traded for Kansas City’s Billy Butler or Alex Gordon.

I’ve heard that Butler wants to come here and has talked to Mariner players and others with the team to that effect, loves Seattle. His Baseball Reference page is below. A very good hitter, designated hitter who plays a few games at first. Baseball Reference has a fun and unique feature towards the bottom of each player’s page, if they’ve been around for a while and it is the “similars” section.

The name that sticks out on Butler’s is John Olerud. Funny juxtaposition, Butler is 6’1″ 240 pounds, while Olerud is 6’5″ 205 dripping wet. Olerud is better than a bunch of guys in the Hall of Fame, but I doubt if he will get there which is a shame.

Butler needs to stay healthy, but through age 26 they’re very similar. His body style suggests that will be the test, that is staying healthy. He’s really a good hitter, prototypical dh.

Looking at the trade suggests some interesting lines of thoughts. James Paxton is by far, far and away the best prospect in the Mariner’s system or really the zenith acquisition of Zduriencik here so far. He was a first round pick by Toronto in the 2009 draft, refused to sign, petitioned to be allowed back into NCAA, which was denied (NCAA always looking out for what’s best for the kids of course), played some independent ball and the Mariners picked him in the fourth round of 2010.

For you old timers he reminds one of Sudden Sam McDowell from the Cleveland Indians of the 60′s. Overhand delivery, featuring a fastball that sits 94-95, touches 97. Big overhand curve, changeup and a slider. Far, far better stuff than Danny Hultzen whose development has slid into a ditch due to being rushed and some arm tiredness, caused by mechanics. Paxton is 23.

Nick Franklin is a 21 year old short stop that has been show cased at second base this Arizona Fall League. His OPS as of last night is 1.042. It suggests that he’s probably a better second baseman than Dustin Ackley who converted to the position and maybe a better hitter with more power. Then there is playing short stop, but that is locked up by Brendan Ryan the fielding bible winner for ss this year, who hits like a pitcher. Or there is Stefen Romero another second baseman with huge power upside, minor league player of the year for Mariners.

If you trade for Butler, that means Jesus Montero is done as a Mariner, as a dh. He can’t catch, plus Zunino is coming up. He’s 21, send him down until Butler breaks down? Trade him for nothing?

Continue to play Ackley and Smoak? We’re supposed to write off Ackley’s year to bone spurs and believe that September Smoak is real?

Other teams scout themselves and weigh the value of all the prospects and call things like they are, with the objective of developing the best players and not protecting players because of the dollars already spent on first round picks and player development guy’s careers.

In business it is called eating your own lunch before somebody else does. Baseball is a results oriented sport, a meritocracy. If you play better than the other guy, you win the job. From top to bottom for the last ten years, the Mariners have been completely unable to evaluate and value their own players as well as project their future value. The faces have changed, but the same mistakes keep happening.

We have a whole series of horrific trades of pitching for nothing back. Or flawed players back.

http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2019534770_paxton27.html

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/butlebi03.shtml

Thanks for all those that wrote about Anger At Mariners!

If you leave me a real name and email, you will get posted and responded to.. Not otherwise.

Several folks reminded me that it was a business and that businesses sole responsibility is to make money.

As an economist, it gave me pause to read those remarks, because it reflects an obvious thing, but several forgotten things.

1. The Mariners through the stadium commission were able to borrow money at municipal rates and pay the loans back on tax collects and set asides from their revenue.

2. Business DOES owe their customers something and it’s called a quality product.

3. Customers do not have a choice if they want to buy in person major league baseball. Closest competitor is in San Francisco.

4. Due to the Anti-Trust exemption granted to baseball by Judge Keneshaw Mountain Landis it is virtually impossible for someone to set up a competitive league as had occurred in the early part of the 20th century. Landis received a payoff from the owners and became baseball’s first commissioner.

Art Thiel formerly of the PI and now the backbone of Sports Press Northwest has a wonderful little (word count) editorial on the Mariners that gently describes the perfidy and obdurate behavior of the executive management and ownership of the Mariners. Link below.

I have been critical of Art for not taking a harder line towards the Mariners the last ten years, even further back to the 1999-2000 season. I don’t want to take back the compliment from the statement above. The piece stands on its own.

The Mariners were given this stadium that they refused to fund, but which over time they paid money back towards the cost of the facility. The ownership has always taken as an operating premise that they could never bring championship baseball here due to their perception that it would cost too much to do so. Day one that is what they thought. It’s why they dumped three Hall of Fame players rather than keep them here.

Over and over I have pointed out that was a wrong decision on the face of it, they should have kept them. With four million fans and the TV contracts that ensued they would have more than covered the salary. This decision process is a measure of their own insecurity and ineptness from a pure baseball perspective.

But let’s take their point. Given what they have spent since 2000, is more than some teams have spent and made it to the playoffs and won World Series. This is a further indictment of how inept and incompetent they are. Can you say Bill Bavasi slowly, the worst hire as a general manager in the history of baseball.

Ichiro bridges the gap between the first case and second case. They gave him what amounts to ARod money and while he was not a bad player, he was merely good at his best and as he fell apart due to age, far less than good.

Thiel’s editorial captures the exasperation that almost anyone feels for the situation. I’ve been following this team since I was 21 years old. Depending on how long I live, of course, it is unlikely that they will under this leadership, ever get to the World Series in my lifetime, my feelings go beyond exasperation.

Lastly, he says Ackley is a nice player and all. Seager is a nice player and all and last summer Ackley was on one of the ten worst players in the American League.

http://mariners.sportspressnw.com/2012/10/thiel-mariners-so-foolish-anger-seems-futile/

This is an expected turn of events as neither are major league players at this point in their baseball lives. Offensively, Kawasaki is just about the worst hitter in the American league by any measurements of full and part time players. For players with 300 plate appearances or more in the past American League season he had the worst hitting year amongst regular catchers and was ninth worse overall with a .620 OPS, above Brendan Ryan with a .555 and just below Dustin Ackley at .622.

In the announcement in the Times blog, Geoff Baker opines that the Olivo will get another shot due to his defensive strengths. His throwout percentage being at 30.9%, above Jaso at 20.6%. We’ve opined previously about how misleading that stat is and how teams tried to run more often on a per game basis on Olivo than Jaso and that between passed balls and so called wild pitches he’s the worst catcher on the team. Further though if there were a count of dropped balls, he would lead on that too.

Mr. Baker went on to say that Wedge was uncomfortable having Jaso or Montero catch more than two days in a row, which goes to our earlier work about the primacy point for catching being catching the ball and getting strikes and that next Kenji Johjima as being the bench mark for worst receiver ever, Olivo is right behind that point.

Assuming that accurate reporting is going on, then the opinions of Wedge presumably are startling.

Mike Zunino’s performance in the Arizona Fall League has been to show an .848 OPS with a .348 on bag and .500 slug. This is a much higher range of competition and his offense works. It looks as if they want him to make the team out of spring training.

For weeks, since Detroit clinched the American League the great friend of Peabody the Blog, Geoff Baker has jousted with many (including me) via his tweets and infrequent posts about the Tiger’s making the World Series due to Tiger’s commitment to spend big and sign Prince Fielder this past off season.

So finally I said let’s go check this out, I mean it’s obvious right? They’re in the series and it has to be because of Fielder’s presence.

In 2011 the Detroit Tigers scored 787 runs. In 2012 they scored 726 runs. That’s a decline of 61 runs, not quite eight percent. They allowed 711 runs in 2011 and 670 runs in 2012. The run differential was 76 runs last year and 56 runs this year.

I hate to say this but Mike Ilitch is in the World Series, but its more to do with his team getting hot in September and riding a couple of pitchers in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

In the post season Fielder’s OPS is terrible at .558. He did have a great year with an OPS of .940, while Cabrera won the Triple Crown.

They barely, barely made it to the playoffs winning 88 games this year, while they were in the playoffs last year with 95 wins.

Started out to validate the sense that @Gbaker stated that the Tigers are here because they spent a ton of money. Spending the money did not make them better in any appreciable sense, it kept them from not being in the playoffs more than anything and falling off where they were.

Right now they’ve run into a buzz saw in the Giants and Pablo Sanchez and Barry Zito a very hot team. Right now and it’s early it reminds me of the 1972 World Series of Cincinnati and the Big Red Machine versus Oakland As. At the outset it was thought to be the Reds easy peazy, but the As won en route to three straight World Series victories. Google Gene Tenace to see a tremendous performance and read about a forgotten player who was wonderful in that moment and a guy that was a very good, but not great player for a long time, career .817 OPS over 15 years and that series, 4 bombs 9 rbis and a 1.313 OPS. There were five guys playing that would be in the Hall of Fame, Catfish Hunter and Rollie Fingers on the As and the Reds with Tony Perez, Joe Morgan and Johnny Bench. Reggie Jackson made it to the Hall of Fame, but was injured and did not play.