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Debacle In Japan

March 26th, 2012 by terrybenish

Season starting in silly disarray. Exhibition games, visits to Army bases, interviews, helicopter flights, terrible baseball and charades. Two real games in next two days, then seventeen hours back on flight, some more spring training and then the remainder of the 160 game schedule. Surely it should be clear to even the most casual of Mariner fans that the executive management’s agenda is not headed with with the objective of developing a great team. There is so much “noise” surrounding this team that I actually feel some compassion for Wedge as he navigates through this turgid sea avoiding floaters and mines.

The past two years of Mariner baseball have been two of the worst seasons in Major League baseball history. I have struggled with how to describe what lays before us this year and give reasons to watch and to be excited, yet not soft soap everybody as most of the beat writers have done so far.

If one takes a bit of a long view, as this is a rebuild, it might be best to make some observations about who will be here a year from now, which will take us away from all the baloney and subterfuge about guys on contracts. So I’m going to look at it that way and walk through the line up.

Miguel Olivo is the starter this year and John Jaso the backup per se, with big Jesus Montero getting OJT for a few games here and there. Honestly, I can’t believe that Olivo will be back next year. Jaso is young enough and talented to stick as a back up, not a lot of juice though. If Montero can catch at all, he’s the guy, if not there will be somebody else doing the everyday playing there.

At first base, the team PR machine and Eric Wedge and Jack Zduriencik have anointed Justin Smoak not only as the first baseman, but the number four hitter. He had a bad, bad year from hell last year, family tragedy, thumb issue, broken nose. The mantra is he’s a switch hitting stud. Well they’re saying that, because he’s the only thing of substance from the Cliff Lee deal. He’s really struggled through his first two years, except for last April and two Septembers against call ups. From 10-11 his line drive percentage slid from 21% to 17%. As a switch hitter his splits as a right handed hitter are very different. He lifts the ball more left handed and hits a lot of line drives right handed, strikes out much more often left handed and walks more too.

Here is the problem, it would be great to jump on the band wagon with everybody else, but its not really clear yet and it seems like this could be a make or break year for him. Carp hit fourth last year and earned the right to do so and is probably a better first baseman.

Dustin Ackley playing second base. Looks good to me. He’s a good hitter, lets see him put some numbers up. He could be very special, or just good. Good is fine.

At third base, Chone Figgins will not be here next spring, can’t be. Kyle Seager showed a lot more juice than anybody suspected was in the package this spring. That they are cluttering up his world with this financial issue is stupid. Vinnie Catricala and Alex Liddi had great springs and Catricala looked very, very good. Liddi might be the safety net for Justin Smoak. Nothing wrong with a little competition, and all three would be good here next year.

Brendan Ryan might be the new Jack Wilson, hoping to ride the injury train back to middle America away from this rodeo. Kawasaki probably can play every day, not sure about how he survives offensively. Shortstop seems like a big void looking down the road. The bloom seems to have come off Nick Franklin’s rose a bit and Carlos Triunfel makes you remember that Jose Lopez came up as a short stop.

Left field is Mike Carp land. Think Raul Ibanez. He should hit and play hard, .280 25 dingers. That would probably work next year too.

Center field Michael Saunders and Casper Wells. The starting bell is ringing and let’s see about Saunders. Wells will do fine wherever they play him. Best outfield arm on the team, and he’s got lots of power. How he can’t start for this team this year is a travesty. Next year in right field maybe.

Ichiro is in right field and batting third. The emperor has no clothes on, whisper, whisper, pass it on.

Designated hitter is Jesus Montero. Let’s go to ripping big fellow. If he could catch, then Carp as dh and who knows in left field.

Mark Mclemore deja vu all over again position: Chone Figgins. Were Mark Mclemore still able to play, it would be good to see him this year and next.

Starting pitching/rotation survivors for next year: Felix and Beavan.

Reliever survivors: League and Wilhelmsen…who knows.

In a rebuilding thing sometimes guys show up and after a year or so get moved to another position, Ryan Braun is an example of that as his B.J. Upton and Craig Biggio. Seager, Ackley and Montero fit into that category. Don’t be surprised at seeing them moved about.

Once this trip is over, it will be time to start getting excited.

8 Responses to “Debacle In Japan”

  1. clifton Says:

    The bloom seems to have come off Nick Franklin’s rose a bit and Carlos Triunfel makes you remember that Jose Lopez came up as a short stop.

    What? Franklin is a switch hitter who is hit 30 bombs in two years as a 19-20 year old, 40+ stolen bases. You must be Mr. Negative. Don’t get too wrapped up in the Japan baseball – it is depressing.

  2. terrybenish Says:

    Thanks for writing. Two years ago Franklin was great, hurt a good part of last year due to batting cage accident. Stunk last fall in AFL. Did not impress this spring in first big league camp. It was a time to make a move. Wedge is not hot on Ryan.

  3. Clifton Says:

    Franklin stunk? .258 against the best after coming off dl is acceptable. Mvp of fall league rising stars.

    Guarantee ya that franklin is just absorbing everything like a professional at his age should do. When ur at this level, administration has a map of destiny already drawn.

  4. terrybenish Says:

    45th best hitter out of 62 guys in a very offensive fall league, he started off very slow and came on a bit at the end. The organization does not view him as a short stop at this point. Utility guy. He hit .143 in limited action this spring.

    The upside here is that Wedge is very sour on Ryan. Both Wedge and Zduriencik would like a shortstop that can hit, which is why they experimented with Seager there last summer. As to switch hitter, he’s thought to be much better left handed. The knock on him at ss is a weak arm. If he drives in 75 runs, though they forget about that. He did not capture any hearts and minds this spring. That can change.

    The bloom off the rose, was a quote, but I can’t give you the source.

  5. clifton Says:

    i think you are missing the point. name a switch hitting middle infielder who has the bombs and can swipe bags. btw – drive in 75 runs? he is a lead off or 2 guy, not much chance there.

    i have heard the knock on the arm. you should play first base when he HAS to throw it over there! reported to have thrown 93 off the mound.

  6. terrybenish Says:

    I’m not missing anything, I’m not writing like a fan.

    He hit seven homeruns last year in 400 at bats. He was over-matched in spring training and quiet. Not ready.

    He showed some power two years ago at A ball, maybe it will re-emerge. He should be in Jackson again and it can be good for him. The jump to major league baseball as a hitter is really significant.

    Write the Mariners and tell them he’s got a great arm. It was their idea to play him at second base because of his arm…not mine.

    He’s not ready yet and he has to show them that he is and that they need to consider him as a major league short stop. Right now they do not.

  7. clifton Says:

    franklin had about 200 plus less ab’s last year. btw – they didn’t play him at 2nd because of his arm – you need to know some real sources.

  8. terrybenish Says:

    I’ll type slower next time so you can keep up. “Seven home runs in over 449 plate appearances…” .418 slug. For a full season that projects to less than ten bombs…big whoop.

    Repeat after me, he has not made them think he is a major league shortstop. I have that from multiple people, on record and off fan boy. They played him at second to see if he might be able to be a utility player. That’s what they think of him.

    Ryan can’t stay on the field now, due to his body breaking down. Nobody else in organization is a ss prospect, if he showed anything you would have heard about it.

    Maybe he lights it up this year who knows, but last fall and this spring did not impress the org. Move on.

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