Peabody: Life, Friends Baseball

In the past two days several projections have been released predicting the results of the upcoming season.

They say they’re projections because each of them rely on the use of statistical regression to project individual seasons for each player and then they sum up those projections and you have how the team will do. It is a system based on the history of major league players at different ages and at different points of their careers. It is not perfect, but has been reasonably accurate.

Pecota and Cairo are the self described systems. Here are some links that will get you to them, ultimately you will have to pay to get the full deal.

Cairo: http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/cairo_2012_v0.5_and_more_somewhat_useless_projected_standings

PECOTA: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15992

Both systems are really good at capturing what older mature players are probably going to do…they capture their average performance at this stage of their career very well.

Both systems do not project younger players very well, they miss the surge that happens with good young players sometimes, simply because it does not happen that frequently.

Should the recent signing of old worn out guys triumph, the team looks dismal. However, if they play more young guys, neither system thinks much of Ackley or Smoak…as big time prospects.

Let us all hope that spring training that starts on Saturday results in the emergence of some very solid young players.

This entry was posted on Thursday, February 9th, 2012 at 8:25 am by terrybenish and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.