What If Bryce Harper Was A Mariner, Would He Start In RF?
February 2nd, 2012 by terrybenishBryce Harper is a 19 year old prospect for the Washington Nationals who is a former number one overall pick in the 2010 draft.
This morning there was a small discussion on Fangraphs as to the pros and cons of bringing him up as a 19 year old.
The analysis which can be seen on www.fangraphs.com can be summarized very quickly.
The answer is no, because you will lose player control one year sooner out six years from now and leave him at AAA or wherever they put him this year.
I did an in-exhaustive study of 19 year olds who played in the Major leagues including Mickey Mantle, Alex Rodriguez, Eddie Matthews, Al Kaline, Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones and I’m sure there are others that could be perused. Matthews was actually 20 in the interests of disclosure.
The thing that I observed about all of these guys is that the season after they were brought up, they all have an enormous jump. Best performance in league or nearly so…huge jumps.
They all did ok to a little better during the first year they are up, but the second year is fabulous.
In Washington sixty-nine year old Davy Johnson is the manager and the question to him is do I take an ok year and a monster year, this year and next or do I wait a year and do nothing this year, ok next year and monster year three years out?
The baseball present value of ok year and monster year next year makes the value of an extra year six years away utterly meaningless.
Bring him up now…there is more than enough suggestion that being in the major league competition at 19 is what induces the great performance sooner.
Davey Johnson wants to win now and next year. His horizon does not stretch out six years. Nor does any major league manager.
If Bryce Harper were with the Mariners, he would be in left field somewhere.
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