More Expectations Redux
January 28th, 2012 by terrybenishConnor Glassey of Baseball America has released his Top Ten Prospects/Scouting Reports and the links to that report have been carried locally since yesterday.
Here they are again:
In fact here is the list again, but not the scouting report:
1. Jesus Montero, c
2. Taijuan Walker, rhp
3. Danny Hultzen, lhp
4. James Paxton, lhp
5. Nick Franklin, 2b/ss
6. Francisco Martinez, 3b
7. Chance Ruffin, rhp
8. Tom Wilhelmsen, rhp
9. Vinnie Catricala, 3b/1b/of
10. Phillips Castillo, of
Virtually everyone can get these player’s stats on Baseball Reference or Fangraphs. The scouting report from Baseball America is a pay item and he is a good writer but there is a dilemma in taking that step or reading other blogs that purport to have the inside scoop on a team’s prospects.
If I am a scout, I make more money the further my guy goes up the chain after he is drafted. So I am going to say my guy is better than the other guy’s guy in same org. Let’s say you are higher up the organization’s food chain than the signing scout or the cross checker or player development guy. There is just so little incentive to give a blogger, or stringer for a magazine anything that is not not hype.
Just a little insight here, professional baseball people will talk to their friends which include people they played with or played for or both and almost never will they talk to reporters, let alone bloggers, unless their job requires it.
All the more power to guys who start blogs about prospects and the like and make money at it, but I don’t think I’d believe stuff about scouts passing info on. Its fun to read and get into arguments and all, but well just do what you want, it is still mostly a free country.
Looking at the stats is plenty good and effective, but not perfect, and warrants great conversation and speculation.
So what about the list? The first four guys seem to be locks:
1. Jesus Montero, c
2. Taijuan Walker, rhp
3. Danny Hultzen, lhp
4. James Paxton, lhp
5. Nick Franklin, 2b/ss
6. Francisco Martinez, 3b
7. Chance Ruffin, rhp
8. Tom Wilhelmsen, rhp
9. Vinnie Catricala, 3b/1b/of
10. Phillips Castillo, of
I would suggest that the placements might be a little skewed. I would put Walker number one, Paxton two, Montero three and Hultzen four.
The problem when you write something like that is there is an implied disrespect to the dropped guys.
That is not so in this case. All four of them are locks barring injury. The point that I want to make is that there is good and then there is good.
Paxton has better stuff than Hultzen, throws harder and his mechanics are more traditional. He throws harder, and has both a great curve ball and a slider. He has shown a change-up but is not part of his regular routine. He has more experience than Hultzen and his numbers last year, such as his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) were better than Hultzen’s. In fact he really caught fire in the last two months of last summer. He is very tall 6’5 and long and sits 94-96, touching 97. That gets a lot of big league hitters out, as long as it is not down the middle. That said he has a very low home runs allowed record. He walks about four guys per nine, but Randy Johnson was worse. You can not teach 97 mph. Have a look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z32YQUpyXWs&feature=endscreen&NR=1
Hultzen has three pitches, fastball, slider and change-up. Early last spring at the University of Virginia the buzz was his velocity had bumped from 90-92 to 94-95, however it slid back to the lower range. People remark about two things when they discuss him: 1. His change-up and 2. He has a unique delivery throwing across his body. The decline in velocity might be attributable to this.
He reminds me of a young Jarrod Washburn…might be good in this setting.
Walker is 19 years old this year. He is described as a very athletic in all ways, touches 99…Dwight Gooden. Numbers are sick. Next year maybe? This fall, doubtful. Awfully good.
Take a look yourself:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S536c4FMLk&feature=related
Montero will be a dh or as Jack Zduriencik says he’ll get every chance to catch. If he can to that, there are reasons to be positive. Let us see if he can do it.
Numbers five to ten are problematical. Franklin as a major league short stop, might be a reach. Maybe. Numbers six to ten are guesses and fraught with suggestions that they might not make it as an important player. A sleeper I like is Forrest Snow 6’6″ rh pitcher who lit up the AFL and has good stuff. Have a look:
Scripps Interactive Newspapers Group
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