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Archive for October, 2011

Lots Of Noise For The First Monday Of The Offseason

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Talk time about the Yankees resigning CC Sabathia.

In July CC Sabathia had one of the best months as a pitcher for the past season, certainly his best month.

Using the OPS Against stat his July performance was a tiny .428. The stat is the sum of on base percentage against and slugging against, so .208 onbag and .208 slug. Five games 50 strike outs, 13 walks, 1 home run. Mostly untouchable 4-1 record.

In August the same measure ballooned to .918, dropped to .761 for September which is nothing special and then in the divisional series it jumped to 1.010. Two games, 8 2/3 innings pitched, 10 hits, 8 walks, 11 strike outs.

He just snagged another thirty million smoleans on the way by today from the Yankees, which is like a mosquito attack, but he’s 6.7 300+ pounds and he threw the second most pitches in his career. He might have just been tired and will be fine coming back, it will be what it is. Don’t be surprised though if he is less than he’s been.

David Aardsma was released by the Mariners today. He has another eight months of recovery from Tommy John surgery in front of him, which could mean they’d re-sign him. Not probable though.

Jeff Gray was released and signed by somebody, Twins?

All the Grady Sizemore talk has the Mariners signing him to play lf. They could do that and then form a barnstorming team made up of the other fourteen or fifteen so-called left fielders between AA, AAA and Seattle. I’d think about right field or center field. Ken Rosenthal, has the Ms going after Prince Fielder. I have a hunch who his source might be. Probably not a Mariner employee.

Don’t be overwhelmed by the news at first.


Froth

Saturday, October 29th, 2011

The last three games in the Arizona Fall League, show Adam Moore shaking some of the rust off with his bat, collecting a couple of hits and a walk, same for Nick Franklin. Danny Hultzen had five strike outs in three and two thirds innings Wednesday night, gave up two hits including a home run. He’s a flyball guy it seems. He had two strike outs in his previous three outs. Forrest Snow continues to look like a man amongst boys. Ten strike outs and one walk in nine and two thirds of an inning. Two hits…But stats while revelatory in some ways are not the only way they’re being evaluated. Decisions are made through the lens of how much of an investment the team has made in you and a number one pick is going to the majors barring injuries, because there is so much organizational credibility carried in baggage with a guy. Snow on the other hand is 44th round pick drafted as a favor to a long time Mariner scout, sort of a Mike Piazza like story. Well he’s lighting it up now. It is almost as if they are looking for reasons to say no, rather than seeing a potential star.

Rumors floating around about some quick free agent signings, albeit smaller deals happening relatively soon. Catcher maybe. Somebody to ease the load on Olivo.

Front office is hopeful about Moore. Not sure if it is too be long term solution or as a bargaining chip. Not sure the lines are clear on that between front office and dugout.

Given where the Ms are an evaluation of Brendan Ryan is an interesting thing. In the American League last year using a fielding stat called Ultimate Zone Rating he was one of the better defensive short stops. Which confirmed what Jack and his scouts saw and attracted him to them. Offensively, he does not get on base and has some gap power. He had a monster May hitting .384. All of the rest of the months were bad by any measure. One other thing of note was that he only played 123 games, largely due to an injury to his shoulder.

Ryan was probably the worst hitting regular on the second worst ever offense ever. The worst offense ever being the 2010 Mariners. So, given that the executive office insists on playing three terrible offensive players in Olivo, Gutierrez and Olivo can you play somebody even worse than them and expect to get better?

Or should you trade him to a team that can carry a good field no hit short stop? Do you hope that Nick Franklin takes the job in March and move Ryan then? Good question. Might be a little premature for that scenario.


Trend Setting And Who Cares Where Good Ideas Come From

Friday, October 28th, 2011

Geoff Baker in the Times today parrots Peabody by suggesting Grady Sizemore as a pick up as the Indians don’t re-sign him.

For you four hundred regulars you will recall that on October 19th some ten days ago that’s what WE SAID!!!

That’s the dog and I saying it loud.

Chris Gwynn will replace Pedro Grifol as the Mariner’s Farm Director, story broke by Dan Hayes of North County Times and repeated by Larry Stone of the Times. Don’t want to read too much into this but there have been a few huge successes from the team’s efforts to sign players from Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Omar Vizquel, Ivan Calderon, Wladimer Balantien, Felix, Jose Lopez, Michael Pineda to name a few. Carlos Peguero and Carlos Triunfel are still in the high end of the system and do not figure in next year’s plans.


If You Have Pitching To Deal, Who’s Buying?

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

There are a number of teams that try to compete from year to year that need pitching nominally, when you consider the team’s 2011 performance. There are other teams that do not seem as if competing is their intent that might trade for other considerations, control of a player for example, but let’s keep it simple for now. It is easy to determine who that might be in order from terrible (OPS Allowed) to less terrible:

1. Minnesota: .775

2. Astros: .770

3. Rockies: .763

4. Kansas City: .762

5. Pirates: .747

6. Toronto: .747

7. Mets: .743

8. Reds: .740

9. Cleveland: .737

10. Dbacks: .725

11. Yankees: .721

12. Cards: .717

13. Chisox: .714

The Mariners OPS allowed was .696 overall and they have starting pitching to deal that can surpass those numbers above. Once you see that there is a market then you need to look at teams that have talent that might be available either in a few days or after they’ve signed free agents. Then you overlay your roster and its needs and being mindful of positions staked out with existing contracts as we’ve talked about.

All of those teams have players that might be available for trade and those players might be characterized by partial seasons where they displayed some good attributes offensively. Objectively, if you can acquire players where you are weak or that play in the middle and are better than replacement level players then that sounds additive. Taking the high road here, it would seem that there are maybe two guys that should be untouchable when looking at the roster, maybe Ackley and I can’t remember the other guy. There are some catchers that would buttress the situation the Mariners have, some first and third basemen, but it seems as if Smoak is untouchable and Carp is maybe unappreciated. Quite a few corner outfielders and two center fielders that might work. Without further ado here is a list of targets starting from the middle of the field:

1. Matt Downs, Astros .851 2b
2. Ryan Doumit, Pirates .827 c
3. Salvado Perez, Royals .834 c
4. Jesus Montero, NYY .987 c
5. Alejandro De Aza, Chisox .916 cf
6. Brent Lillibridge, Chisox, .826 cf
7. Nick Hundley, Padres, .817, c

There are some corner guys, 1b, 3b, rf and lf too. But until there is some organizational direction about the glut and contract stuff around those positions it seems a waste to discuss. It really depends how much sway Jack Zduriencik has and how ruthless he might be now. Do they see blooming talent here or not. All of the people suggested above are guys not getting that much time, but have shown results and might be pried loose. If the bait is Pineda, then instead perhaps we should look at some higher order predators on those same teams.

Tomorrow’s task. Here’s some random thoughts about the guy’s listed above, the Yankees like Austin Romine more than Montero, which might be Girardi’s influence as a small light hitting catcher himself. If Montero can catch then your concern is the Joe Maurer syndrome around bigger catchers. Downs might present a chance to move Ackley to cf, his college position in the outfield. Lillibridge is a tremendous defender, with a great arm, who burst this past summer after being buried behind Gordon Beckham in Chicago. He could play anywhere in the middle of the field. Nick Huntley is the most proven catcher on that list and he has improved as a hitter each year in majors, should play more than he does with San Diego.


How Bad Has The Offense Been?

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

There was a post yesterday in Look Out Landing that suggested that the Mariners OPS was the equivalent of facing the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation for 324 games. We would have done better facing Randy Johnson in each game.

Why state that or even flog the dead horse so to speak. Well it is a proportionality exercise. It helps you to assess off season actions as well as inaction. You can look at the OPS for the division and wild card winners or you can look at total runs scored for those teams and contrast each against the runs scored or OPS. To win a division, beat the Rangers say, the OPS differential is 160 points across a whole lineup. They scored 295 more runs than the Ms did. Maybe Tampa Bay is a better choice to compare, due to our pitching and park…I think there is a flaw there but lets look at it, 64 point differential in OPS and a 151 run differential.

Clearly one guy is not going to make that whole thing up, whichever the measure you use. In a practical case, just for the sake of exposition, say they could sign Prince Fielder. They would need to add some more players and then hope that some guys would perform better than they have in last two years, which theoretically would follow from such an addition, but maybe not with the Mariners cast of hold overs. Yet with some younger players it would be quite normal for them to improve.

Should the assumption of not signing Prince Fielder be considered then, whoever is signed will need more help from the hold overs. In order to get players to play now, you have to sign free agents, trade your players (pitchers) for other teams players or hope that Willie Mays and Johnny Bench are in the minors, as yet unrecognized and will show up in spring training.

Given this team’s budget and set of contracts, the meaningful free agent is not a likely scenario, maybe a couple of small signs, next fall it could be much better. Trades? The fruit from that is best harvested in July or even at next year end. There are some plums in our system, but nothing like the guys mentioned above.

Time will tell.


Did I Ask You How Good Is Mike Napoli?

Monday, October 24th, 2011

He is awfully good. Playing at a level for the last four months that is as good as any catcher has ever played. Receives, throws, blocks and hits and hits and hits. Hits for power, monstrous power, throws people out, is dominating the Ranger victories.

Somebody has got to ask Mike Scioscia what were you thinking? Mike Mathis? Pulllease!! He was traded to Toronto with Juan Rivera for Vernon Wells and cash.

Vernon Wells has been a good but not great center fielders for about ten years. Last year he was ok. In 2009 and this year he sucked offensively and the Angels have two young guys who are better center fielders and Torri Hunter. He was terrible this year and very expensive, $18 million a year through 2014. He got fat and played lf and offensively was terrible.

He’s done. Napoli cost Texas $5.8 million. He is the best player, playing right now.

He might be the best payer in baseball now.


How Good Is Mike Napoli?

Sunday, October 23rd, 2011

I have asked that a couple of times, but he’s lighting it up. He’s a great player, incredible hitting tools, has an approach and seems to be pretty smart. He’s a very good catcher too. Very impressive.

Far be it from me to question Ron Washington being a manager in two consecutive World Series and all, but he’s the best hitter on the team and he’s batting him 8th and diddling with him to play Torrealba, who is not as good as him as a catcher or hitter.

There are a ton of players to look at, more from potential trade candidates than free agents that have some upside. The Series probably should take some precedence. We’ll get after that after the Series is over.

The BallPark at Arlington is a nice, very nice place to watch a game. This time of year is very pleasant. Busch Stadium is also nice if not so warm. The Cardinal fans are knowledgeable fans, could be maybe the best fans. They know the game and cheer appropriately and they also know greatness. They’ve seen a lot of it.

It’s a scenario that could happen in Seattle, all other things equal.


Friday Night Lights

Saturday, October 22nd, 2011

I watched the North Kitsap versus Sequim high school football game Friday night won by North 33-13.

Excellent game article by Nathan Joyce is available elsewhere in the Sun.

Despite the disparity in the score the game was hard fought from beginning to end. Lots of hitting, played throughout at a very crisp pace.

The Sequim quarterback Frank Catelli is an imposing figure at 6’2 and 235 pounds but, only played the first half, but was game to do that. It was obvious in pregame warm ups that his groin injury was bothering him. He has a huge arm and big heart. I suspect though that he may wind up playing defense if the couple of series he played are any indication of how good he is as a linebacker.

There were all kinds of big plays for North, running and passing both. AJ Milyard was on target on many late developing routes to tight end Andrew Urqheart and wideout JT Nettleton. Connor McCorkle was the most notable with two seventy plus yard touchdowns (a pass and a run) and other long runs from scrimmage.

It all came about as North controlled the line of scrimmage with or without the ball most of the game. Milyard had time to pass and there were holes to run, while Sequim could muster only two scoring drives. Zach Moss and Greg Warns had good games.

Great, great spectacle. Hats off to both teams.


Random Scatter…Wedge to Boston?

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

How good is Mike Napoli?

I spent a bit of time cataloging both leagues which is not something I usually do, but I did none the less, and given that he is a catcher and not sleeping out in right field for example, he might be the best player in baseball right now. Second best offensively behind Jose Bautista and playing the most demanding position physically game to game and endurance wise over the course of the season he was only incrementally behind Bautista. An OPS of 1.044.

How good is Mike Napoli? Clearly way, far better than the Angels thought. Is there a Mike Scioscia ego issue showing up? I remember him playing and to coin a phrase, he was no Mike Napoli. How do you let him go? To clear space for Vernon Wells? No wonder Tony Reagins was let go. Just an abysmal talent evaluation.

How could you miss by so much. Using the same OPS measure across both leagues, Ichiro with his .647 OPS was the 346th best player in major league baseball, just ahead of Miguel Olivo. Mike Napoli makes $5.8 million a year. Ichiro makes $18 million more than three times Napoli, how could two organizations miss by so very much.

Wedge to Boston, talk won’t go away. Probably a better career move than life in Fredonia.

Arizona Fall League update: Danny Hultzen goes his first four professional innings does not give up a hit, but as has been noted elsewhere, quite a few balls were hit hard hard but caught. Franklin and Moore are scuffling with the bat. I think the goal for Moore is to see if he can play without getting hurt, then see if he can recapture some magic with his bat. Chih-Hsien Chiang is hitting .364 with a couple of doubles and one triple thrown in. he was part of the Bedard deal coming in from Boston.

Clearly, though Forrest Snow is the shocking revelation of the league so far with eight and 1/3 inning pitched, one (1) hit, one (1) walk and ten (10) strike outs.


Right Fielders

Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

I really like Casper Wells, but I’m not really getting that vibe from the Mariners.

So let’s play some creative roster moves involving the Mariners and the Yankees.

The danger here is that I start to look like a National Correspondent for FoxSports or a blogger for the Times, so just to be sure, this is all speculation and intended to open the mind.

Let’s postulate that the Yankees sign Prince Fielder and that they also think they need a lead off hitter and improved defense in right field. Secondly, let us hope that the Yankee scouts saw Ichiro play against the Red Sox which represented the five or six games he played with intent to win.

Fielder would dh, the M’s would do an extension for Ichiro and the Yankees would sign Nick Swisher, then the Ms trade Ichiro for Swisher who would immediately bat third for the Ms. Ackley could lead off and Seager bat second. There is not a lot of financial incentive for the Yankees, but they just want to win and crush everyone else and their topline is extraordinary and they could move Granderson to third and bat Cano behind Ichiro…I really hate making a case for the Yankees to do anything. Nick Swisher would fit well here.

The other name that kind of sticks out on the free agent list and is an oft injured centerfielder that maybe should slow down and play right field and that is Grady Sizemore. Given his recent years he should come relatively cheap and might want to change his scenery. 470 plate appearances the last two years coming off of some very serious injuries to most of his body…two hernia surgeries, left elbow and micro-fracture surgery on his left knee.

Move him to right field and hope that the change leads to some extended play. He made $7.7 million. There is an $8.5 million team option, with a team buyout of $500k. The $8.5 million jumps to $10.5 million if he wins Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, is an all star or gets MVP votes.

All of that seems remote given his last three years. I would be amazed if the Indians don’t buy him out.

He seems ripe for a low salary, high level incentive deal.


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