Peabody: Life, Friends Baseball

When baseball teams are hot, they hate to take a day off, but since that is the schedule and the games mean nothing, they’re back at it today.

The coming year of baseball reading and watching will be different for many fans of the Mariners.

The Times is in the process of disappearing behind their pay per wall. It is possible to subscribe for home delivery and you get to see everything electronically. The print paper you receive in my experience in Kitsap will be at least a day behind any news, so no games in the past few days of any sport. But if you just use it for the garbage can or to start fires and then get online, maybe it makes sense.

The Tacoma News Tribune is also behind a pay per wall, but at this point lets you see the blogs, such as Ryan Divish’s, which is good. Some video and game coverage. The Sun picks up their game coverage online and print. Divish is good and knows the game.

If you don’t want to spend the money on the Times, Geoff Baker is what you will miss. He works harder at this than anyone else and though he sometimes goes off track he pulls himself back into it shortly. The Times like many newspapers struggles with this new world of the internet, which is approaching seventeen years or so. They may or may not make it.

There is Sports Press Northwest, which despite Art Thiel’s book about the Mariners does not provide any baseball coverage that you can not get better through the Sun. Art is a good read and covers all the dirt there is fit to print.

I have to give thanks to Chuck Stark for letting me do this for a couple of years. I absolutely irritated the hell out of him, but he let me do it. My intention when I started was to use approachable sabermetric tools to contrast some of the stuff that was written about the Mariners in the local press and blogs and describe what was actually happening rather than to repeat what the ownership or manager or gm might be saying. My financial background was also useful when considering the potential sale of the team and new media deals. Once again thanks to Chuck. I wrote some stuff for him as Mr. Know it All and Peabody is a further Rocky and Bullwinkle homage.

As part of that I criticized those writers that acted as a puppet so as to bring light to those soft efforts. That caused consternation from those writers, who after all do not want their efforts to be criticized. There have been complaints and the fraternity of reporters are not to be trifled with.

The new sports editor suggested that I not write about other’s work in a critical fashion as they are colleagues. That I am not an employee of the paper and a blogger made me wonder, am I a sportswriter and where is my credential? His criticism of me completely misses the point of blogs, but he went further and remarked that I could not write for spit either, which without getting ugly is kind of funny if you follow me.

Following these guidelines is something I tried for the past few months and it’s not something I want to do any further.

I have really enjoyed doing this and I’ve had some great response from folks which I am also thankful for. Fair winds and calm waters.

Mariners blasting away, Casper Wells not going quietly, triple off right field fence. Short quick swing. Seager with a bomb.

Jon Garland had a good two innings with very good command, pitched out of problems, could be a steal of tremendous proportions. Taijuan Walker got scuffed up in his second inning of work, for a bomb and some hits and walks. Lost command of everything as his emotions took over, but reigned it in and got out of the inning.

The wins do not translate necessarily to real season wins unfortunately, but when you have so much more talent than the year before it is indeed promising.

When a kid gets a $10,000 raise and is making over $500k a year, it is hard to raise umbrage, in a county with significant unemployment already and staring at cuts at the principal employer, when a young player gets screwed by his team, as did Mike Trout with the Angels. He may be the best player in baseball right now and the least paid. When he is able to move, he’ll probably remember this.

There are lots of things to read about why this happens and it’s complicated so let’s try to describe it so that you can get your arms around it.

The Major League Players Union and MLB entered into an agreement, employer to union that has heavily directed the proceeds towards labor, i.e. the players, to players who have been in the major leagues for six years or more. Players are under club control for their first three full years and are paid around $500k per year. For year for through six they can go through an arbitration process. Things improve during those years, especially if you are good. If you are average you get to know the country. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox and Phillies just sign older free agents and or trade for them. The Angels are like that too.

Technically baseball has a labor monopoly, which is called a monopsony. The player’s union manipulated mlb into screwing young and new players, because the older players pay most of the union dues. High school and college kids get absolutely screwed by this. American kids carry the water for college’s and select teams and have done so for years. It is not a new feeling.

The Ms have a couple of guys approaching free agency in Morse and Morales and a gaggle of guys who’s contracts are over this fall. Most of you know that and are sick of hearing it.

The team that follows a process such as the Rays or even the Cardinals seeks to have a bunch of really good players in years 1-6 and only a few past that. The Rays have a very, very low payroll. The Cardinals not so low but not much beyond Ms now, but they let guys with monster potential salaries go. The Rays let them all go and keep rolling young guys in and competing.

The Mariners with the Felix deal seemingly are thinking they could be like the Cardinals. Or with all the one year oldsters which the Rays have done year to year. Time will tell. Even with Felix’s new deal, the Ms payroll at year end will be very low.

Dave Sims was chastising me for my March madness, that is liking the team and I said there is more talent here this March since March of 1990, overall. The thing about this year is that the initial roster probably will not have a lot of the really promising players, but they’re coming this year, so it should be good and make for a fun summer.

Is that correct? Somebody help me out, please!

There have been all kinds of posts about how not to pay attention to spring results, because they don’t mean anything in the long run. Nothing mostly.

The thing to watch though are the players. Some of these guys will peel off and head to the minor league camp. Usually that happens when after they’ve crushed the ball for five straight weeks and then they have a game a week before the season starts where they don’t get a hit or they throw the ball into the stands or something and the keen eyed staff of Eric Wedge will say, “Aha!”

Then the kid will be sent down, accompanied by the admonition to work hard. This year it will seem horribly one sided as decisions will be made solely on one year investments in all the new designated hitters we signed.

So despite playing three routine outs into doubles in and inning or so the other day in right field, Michael Morse who is the prototypical designated hitter will play in right field and the Mariners will trade Casper Wells no matter how well he plays. Carlos Peguero has options, so despite making adjustments that see him both not swinging and crushing good pitches, he will go to Tacoma no matter what. Similarly in the first game of the year a charity game Raul Ibanez was plowing some ground in left and dropped a fly ball that was routine.

John Hicks, Nick Franklin, Brad Miller and Stefen Romero barring injury will play major league ball. Maybe in Seattle, maybe not. Maybe this fall or next year, here there or anywhere. Jesus Montero has really struggled hitting and catching so far. He might be with these guys in Tacoma as Kendrys Morales is the dh. The Mariners could play Ronnie Paulino and Kelly Shoppach or even Mike Zunino.

But so far the dilemma is that the kids are playing better than the “veterans” that Wedge so craves. Same thing is true with the pitchers.

It IS early, but it is better than being early at 1-6.

Over the winter following a trend set by Michael Saunders who invested in his hitting craft by working with Josh Bard last winter, because the Mariners offered no credible hope and Nick Franklin gained a bunch of muscle and hit a homer today and Ackley and Smoak and Beavan all followed Saunders lead and got some help. As a result the Mariners yelled at Franklin publicly via Jack Zduriencik. Franklin is not fat, hard as a rock, passed his physical and all, but the Mariner response seems to be one of embarrassment, and lets yell at the little kid. Almost certainly he is gone and was named in the Upton fiasco as trade bait. They purportedly like Miller better. He had a triple today.

Check out TNT’s Mariner insider, Ryan Divish’s blog. Lots of video from yesterday’s game.

Hultzen and Walker for two innings a piece today. No radio.

Changes in policy regarding local newspapers require some comments. From time to time I have either linked or suggested people read some Seattle Times baseball content. Primarily work done by Geoff Baker and occasionally Larry Stone and Jerry Brewer. In similar veins I have linked the former baseball columnist for the Tacoma News Tribune Larry Larue.

Both papers have announced a pay per view policy for their online paper. TNT’s policy does not cover some of the current baseball stuff and if relevant I will still link. The Times is going dark here in the middle of March. I will not link or copy to their stuff any further.

This is not a comment on their business decision, which is their right to make, rather I don’t and won’t push anyone towards a pay per view site, such as ESPN’s Buster Olney, nor do I want to run afoul of the Times in any sense.

Newspapers are struggling around the country and world. That they need to do this is due to a decline in their ad revenue. Their ad revenue is down because fewer and fewer people read printed newspapers anymore and as I understand it, there is a very small amount of ad revenue from online versions of the paper.

I will continue to link to other writing on baseball to advance the discussion.

Geoff Baker works his fanny off and while some of the stuff he comes up with are misses, it’s not for a lack of effort. His work has provided a good foil at times and I will miss it.

tb

There are many things to observe and even more things to talk about re: blogging and linking to Mariner stuff.

After four games the Mariners are 3-1 and the one loss was given by Hector “leaving Seattle in a cab to Tacoma” Noesi who could not get out of the first inning last Friday.

There was a great piece about spring training results over the weekend in the UssMariner blog by Dave Cameron…the results do not necessarily track with season stats and results. So far though there are some fun guys to watch. This should be said though before all other things are said, noted and rosters put together.

There is more talent in this spring training camp since the early 90s. I wish to shout that Zduriencik would let go of who’s been paid what and let them play to make the team. Just so much talent…one more time, just so much talent, ready and nearly ready. Plus we have all Jack’s winter bashers here too.

Zunino and Hicks are very, very good. Club has more money invested in Zunino obviously, but Hicks can really play, better arm. On the flip side to this Jesus Montero is struggling. Gained weight and really is markedly different as a receiver. Shoppach is a good major league catcher, with experience. Paulino reminds me of a Macy’s Day float.

Smoak is hot. He’s in the fight of his life. So it bears watching.

Ackley had a triple today, bp video’s look markedly different than last summer. Seager is the best of the group already to majors. It is my humble opinion that both Brad Miller and Nick Franklin will be better shortstops, all around than Brendan Ryan. Yet Ryan hit a bomb today. Nice battle.

Saunders is a Bavasi hold over and I think he might have a monster year. Wells is doing well.

Bashers are good, mostly Morse and Ibanez and Morales will do well. Bay I’m not sure about. Had a great first game, scuffled today, so it will be good to see how he comes back.

Of the young pitchers all have done well or especially well, Walker, Paxton, Maurer, Ramirez, Hultzen and Beavan. The power relievers too are off to a good start.

Old guys: Bonderman was bashed around today. Jon Garland and Joe Saunders coming up.

No conclusions yet, but lots of guys that bring smiles to your face.

Hector Noesi gets two outs and no more. 42 year old Raul Ibanez drops fly ball in sunlit field. Montero gets a hit. Montero struggles to receive. Zunino is a tremendous catcher. Franklin plays, good range so so arm. Romero can hit and hit and hit. Morse is huge, where is the ‘rasslin mat? Wells is here to compete.

What to watch for this spring, redux?

I’m not sure where to start, but there is the simple pleasure of watching games again. I should shut down and leave it there.

There are a bunch of things to watch position by position and new players and young talent.

Taijuan Walker blew the big new guy up the other day in Michael Morse, live pitching. Easy 95 with secondary stuff. Zunino should occupy your gaze behind the plate and John Hicks too.

Montero is supposed to be the guy, but I would not be surprised to seem him Tacoma working on a first baseman’s routines by the end of camp.

Ackley and Smoak are getting all the gibberish hype about how last season did not matter. Probably did.

Stefen Romero as super utility guy…or how to turn a great hitter into a turd…

James Paxton and Brandon Maurer.

Do the over and under in terms of games until Gutierrez breaks down.

Jason Bay’s coming back says Michael Morse.

Geoff Baker has a great story on Nick Franklin gaining 34 pounds the old fashioned way.

Eating till you could not eat any more, lots of milk shakes etc. He went from 162 pounds to 196.

Doing lots of old school lifting, squats etc.

There is a video of him along with Brad Miller, who is 6’4″ and also a shortstop getting loose yesterday I guess.

Mariners have gained by having a tremendous defensive short stop in Brendan Ryan, but he negates having a designated hitter, because he hits like a pitcher. Putting team at enormous disadvantage day in and day out. Barring injury Franklin and Miller are major league shortstops, albeit without Ryan’s defensive capability, but with huge offensive upside.

At the end of the day it is about run differential. The Mariners need to score more runs consistently than opponents.

There are teams either pre-designated hitter or National league that have won without a great offensive shortstop, even the Angels with David Eckstein. But the Orioles with Mark Belanger and Cardinals with Ozzie Smith come to mind. Mind you the Padres could not win with Ozzie, but did win with Garry Templeton who could hit. The Orioles won with Cal Ripken who could hit. At times it seems like alchemy, but the reasons the Padre teams with Smith did not win, is they were like the Mariners the past three years and there was not enough other offense to overcome Ozzie’s bat.

Mariners in effect last year had two players that hit like pitchers…Olivo and Ryan. Then Smoak and Ackley were a little bit better than that, but not much. If the word Wah means anything to you, it resonates especially in baseball, in the sense of balance. There was enormous imbalance with team last year. May still be some.

If you play the Ryan from last year, you must have a Frank Robinson who would hit for two people, to cover that offensive black hole.

Or if he’s now 70 or so and out of uniform, you start a short stop that hits and if you are in front after the seventh inning, you keep Ryan as utility guy and put him in.

Clubhouse Confidential is a thirty minute long, five day a week, show hosted by Brian Kenny on MLB the network. Kenny the former ESPN talking head that did a lot of boxing and baseball work there is great. The show which I really enjoy and fully recommend attempts to marshal all Sabermetric tools to evaluate and compare players. Last night and this morning they ran a piece contrasting Torii Hunter with Josh Hamilton. Running a disclaimer against both age differences and mentioning how defensive metrics are flawed, they contrasted the two player’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers. As I’ve mentioned in passing and referenced troubles in the defensive aspect of WAR, which is Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), as being badly flawed, they plunge ahead and throw in the defensive stat of Runs Saved. That stat, as is UZR, is a proprietary number produced by a company that purports to study film of every play made by every player and then using a formula calculate the net number of runs saved. The tool can be negative. For a given player it can range to be wildly positive and wildly negative. Below I have the link to Baseball Reference’s pages for both Hamilton and Hunter.

The other point or failure here is that they did not play the same position last year. Hamilton split time between center field and left field, while Hunter played right field. An observable stat, unlike UZR or Runs Saved, is range factor. No gimmicks, no black box. Using that stat to see where they stacked up last year is valuable if not perfect in so far as they played different positions, we can see how they ranked at those positions. Hunter in terms of his range factor was the fifth best right fielder in the American League last year. While Hamilton if he qualified in terms of number of games in cf would have been eighth best and in left field with the same disclaimer, seventh. In terms of assists and double plays there is not much to separate them.

Using recognizable stats (range factor) there is not a clear advantage to Hunter over Hamilton at all. While on offense Hamilton dwarfs Hunter. Over the last two or three years the differential in OPS being one hundred to three hundred points on OPS. While Hamilton has missed games, he still generates more runs than Hunter. Not being able to pry into the black box stuff, the purported defensive advantage to Hunter is enough to even the value between them. If the formula in WAR is 50-50, offense to defense, which allegedly it is 75-25 offense to defense then the sway of UZR is enormous and probably very misleading at best. In other words the numbers are probably questionable, but the proportionality seems askew.

Good analysis relies on good analysts. Not a simplistic reliance on reliable analytical tools. It should certainly not rest on demonstrably flawed tools.

It is work like this that stalls out the use of Sabermetrics in general.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hunteto01-field.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03-field.shtml