Former Port Orchard Mayor Lary Coppola has analyzed the county Prosecuting Attorney’s race and has concluded 20-year Prosecutor Russ Hauge won’t make it past the primary.
In our state’s primary election system — technically it’s a “contest” — this is possible. The top two vote getters advance.
It’s also marks one of the first attempts to prognosticate what is undoubtedly the most interesting local race this election year.
Coppola theorizes that the county is ready to rise up and dump Hauge because of the longstanding court battle between the county and the Kitsap Rifle and Revolver Club. This was not the case last election, but Coppola thinks this time is different.
He also cites a Kitsap Sun poll that places Hauge last in the field. This poll was also of interest to Bainbridge Democrat Bob Scales, who is running for the job, as evidence of discontent. Also because Scales was the poll’s runaway winner.
I asked around the newsroom about that poll, and was referred to President Mitt Romney to inquire how well it predicts elections. And not to be contrarian, but a poll of lawyers conducted by the county Bar Association had Hauge thumping the competition.
In any case, there is nothing wrong with guessing — that’s all anybody can do right now — and that’s what makes elections fun.
Should elections be fun? No, actually, they should not be fun.
Right now the candidates are itching for forums so they can do what lawyers do best, argue, and they are ringing doorbells and burning shoe leather.
Hauge has said he plans to push hard into Bainbridge, Scales territory. Scales is not well known off the island, and there is a deep cultural divide between Bainbridge and the rest of Kitsap, right down to their 206 area code. Scales recognizes this.
Tina Robinson, the sole Republican in the race, has said she cancelled vacations this summer to focus on campaigning. And despite skipping the Kitsap Bar preference poll, independent Bruce Danielson — who in 2010 took a respectable 47 percent against Hauge in the only poll that matters — said he will attend other functions.
I don’t have any bold predictions, other than it looks like the primary is going to be a scrum. Right now I am interested in opinions about the four-candidate dynamic heading into the primary. Will one candidate steal votes from another? How will gender, geography and political party play out for voters whose research amounts to reading the names of candidates on the ballot?
Any thoughts? Hit me up.