Local politicos predict tonight’s results and political future

This afternoon I got to participate in an election-day tradition here in Kitsap County, a lunch organized by Gordon Walgren and Adele Ferguson. The Kitsap Sun has been excluded in the past because Ferguson wanted to write about it and wasn’t ever keen on getting beaten. She is not writing about the lunch for anyone now and when she was she was sending her columns by fax, so we would have had an edge after she stopped writing for the Sun.

There were 25 people in attendance, by my count, 11 I would identify as Democrats, including state Sen.Tim Sheldon. My guess was nine could be identified as Repbublican and there five I wouldn’t know how to ID. It was a pretty even mix.

Before they received their lunches they were asked to predict what would happen on election night. They were also asked to answer some other, perhaps more interesting, questions. Here are the questions and their answers.

What/who do you think will win in the following races.

I-1351 (Class sizes): yes 19, no 4
I-591 (Gun background checks matching federal rules): yes 6, no 16
I-594 (Expanding background checks): yes 19, no 4
Congress: Kilmer 22, McClendon 1
LD 23 House 1: Appleton 22, Henden 1
LD 23 House2: Hansen 20, Olsen 1
LD 26 Senate: Angel 21, Arbogast 2
LD 26 House 1: Schlicher 15, Young 7
LD 26 House 2: Seaquist 18, Caldier 5
LD 35 Senate: Sheldon 18, Bowling 5
LD 35 House 1: Haigh 17, Griffey 6
LD 35 House 2: MacEwen 15, Newton 7
County Commissioner 3: Streissguth 14, Wolfe 9
Assessor: Andrews 15, Cook 7
Auditor: Gilmore 22, Emerson 0
Clerk: Peterson 23, Chaney 0
Coroner: Sandstrom 21, Wallis 0
Prosecutor: Hauge 22, Robinson 1
District Court Judge 1: Bradley 18, Flood 5
Supreme Court Justice 4: Johnson 21, Yoon 1
Supreme Court Justice 7: Stephens 21, Scannell 0

They also predicted the U.S. Senate and House races, with numbers too varied to report. Generally they predicted a Republican takeover in the U.S. Senate.

You might find the following questions the most interesting.

Biggest local upset: Michelle Caldier (4), Irene Bowling (4), Tina Robinson (1), Tim Sheldon (1), Linda Streissguth (1), Ed Wolfe (1) Dan Griffey (1)
Biggest national upset: Mitch McConnell loses (2), Michelle Nunn wins (1), Democrats hold the U.S. Senate (1), Mary Landrieu (1), New Hampshire (1)
Local candidate with the most effective signs: Wolfe (3), Cook (3), Sheldon (3), Andrews (2), Emerson (1), Olsen (1), Kilmer (1) Bowling (1), Caldier (1), Appleton (1), Peterson (1)
Local candidate with the least effective signs: Streissguth (10), Olsen (5), Henden (2), Hauge (1)
Local candidate with the sleaziest campaign: Caldier (6), Seaquist (5), Henden (1), Bowling (3), Wolfe (1), Olsen (1)
Local candidate with the weirdest campaign: Chaney (5), Olsen (4), Caldier (2), Emerson (1), Henden (1)
Local candidate with the best campaign: Wolfe (4), Streissguth (3), Kilmer (2), Angel (1), Robinson (1), Sandstrom (1), Peterson (1), Hauge (1), Sheldon (1)
Local candidate with the worst campaign: Chaney (5), Olsen (5), Hauge (1), Wolfe (1), Streissguth (1)

Who will be the 2016 Democratic Presidential Nominee?: Clinton (20)
Who will be the 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee?: Jeb Bush (5),Romney (4), Chris Christie (2), Ted Cruz (2), Jon Huntsman (1), Rand Paul (1)

In 2016 who would you like to see run for what local office?: Rob Gelder-commissioner (1), Steve Gardner-county commissioner (1), Tony Stewart-coroner (1), Tony Otto-county commissioner (1), Dave Peterson-Bremerton Mayor (1), Chris Tibbs-County commissioner (1), Pat Ryan, County commissioner (1)
In 2016 who would you like to see run for what state office?: Walt Washington-state rep. (1), Chris Ryland-state legislator (1), Tim Sheldon-Lt. Gov. (1), Derek Kilmer-national senator after the ladies are retired (1), James Olsen-state rep (1), Rob McKenna-governor (1), Doña Keating-23rd House (1), Jay Inslee-governor (1), Howard Schulz-governor (1), Andy Hill-governor (1).