Bill Driscoll says survey shows he has a shot in 6th if people know his views – UpdatedAugust 16th, 2012 by Steven Gardner
Bill Driscoll, Republican candidate for the 6th District Congressional seat, sent a copy of a memo suggesting he’s got a shot at beating Democrat Derek Kilmer.
I responded to the email asking if I could have a copy of the questions Moore Information asked, the ones that led to the following paragraph:
“Importantly, after a series of questions on the Kilmer and Driscoll records, Driscoll moves out to a 9 point lead over Kilmer (48% to 39%.) The movement in the ballot test is almost entirely attributable to Driscoll’s improvement with Independents after they heard messages about each candidate. In fact, on the educated ballot Driscoll led 53% to 25% among Independents.”
UPDATE: Driscoll’s camp declined to offer those, saying the the survey was mostly for internal campaign purposes. Kilmer’s campaign declined to comment.
It is worth noting that normally I don’t make much out of surveys that come from campaigns. Since hardly anyone who isn’t affiliated with a campaign polls our area, that pretty much means I seldom do anything with surveys. Without the questions I have no idea the reliability of the data on this letter, which includes a request for donations. If Kilmer releases a similar letter referencing a survey, I’ll post that one to be fair.
The entire email follows.
I wanted to share with you some good news from the polling firm Moore Information. The memo below clearly shows that when voters are informed about both candidates in this race they support my candidacy. If we have the resources we need to communicate to independent voters, we will win.
Thank you for everything you have done already to help us come so far, so fast. It’s a short sprint to November, and with your continued support we will bring real world experience to the 6th District.
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Hans Kaiser, Moore Information, Inc.
RE: Washington C.D. 6 Voter Survey Results
Results of our recent survey in Washington’s 6th Congressional District show a race that is competitive and which could go either way depending on who wins the message battle this fall. The 6th District looks quite similar to the state of Washington overall and, like Washington overall, it will be Independents who provide the winning margin in this race.
Today Bill Driscoll trails Derek Kilmer by 8 points 45.5% to 37.2% with both candidates receiving similar support from their partisans. The race among Independents however is a dead heat with Driscoll getting 34% and Kilmer getting 35% of that vote. Kilmer’s lead here is partly due to the fact that there are simply more Democrats in this District than Republicans but also, at this point, Kilmer is better known than Driscoll. Kilmer’s image today is positive (29% favorable/7% unfavorable) as is Driscoll’s (18% favorable/6% unfavorable), but more voters today have an opinion of Kilmer. As the campaign progresses that will change.
Importantly, after a series of questions on the Kilmer and Driscoll records, Driscoll moves out to a 9 point lead over Kilmer (48% to 39%.) The movement in the ballot test is almost entirely attributable to Driscoll’s improvement with Independents after they heard messages about each candidate. In fact, on the educated ballot Driscoll led 53% to 25% among Independents.
Two key findings in this data were about voters’ view of government and how best to address the current problems in Washington D.C. A wide majority of voters say they are more likely to vote for Driscoll after hearing the statement that “Bill Driscoll is a fiscal conservative who supports a balanced budget amendment.” This reinforces the finding that this district while holding a strong independent streak, also understands the fiscal realities of the country’s current economic condition.
It is not a Republican district but less than half (47%) of voters say they like President Obama’s policies while 48% say they dislike his policies. Furthermore, 58% of voters here say that in general “government should be smaller and do less” while just 30% say “government should be bigger and do more.”
One other important point. Bill Driscoll’s primary focus is on righting the economic ship of state. In many Democrat leaning districts Democrats use secondary and tertiary issues to alienate the Independent voter from the GOP nominee, insinuating that they are somehow too intractable and too partisan in their approach to governing. Both in tone and outlook that cannot be said about Bill Driscoll, a combat veteran with extensive experience in business. This race will, by nature of the candidates, focus on the overwhelming issue of the day in the 6th District and around the country: jobs and the economy.
The bottom line is that today Derek Kilmer enjoys a slight advantage due to higher name identification and the Democrat leaning makeup of the District. As both candidates become better known this race will become even more competitive.