Predicting the future tough from this primaryAugust 7th, 2012 by Steven Gardner
The more I look at Tuesday’s election the less certain I am that it predicts anything for the general. Three months in politics is an eternity anyway, but the submariner low turnout compounds the mystery.
If Kitsap County does only see 15,000 more votes by the end of this election, turnout that was expected to be about 50 percent will finish lower than 35 percent. The general election should see more than double that. My gut tells me this means Democrats have work to do keep their wins around here. My gut often doesn’t know what it’s talking about, but nobody had a chance to vote against Barack Obama Tuesday. In November they will.
Fortunately for Democrats they ended Tuesday with some big leads in some races, so they start ahead. And in the general election of 2010 Democrats in Washington did very well in getting out the vote. While Republicans swept the nation, Democrats held their own here.
What I’m interested in seeing over the next few days is how the later votes trend. That same 2010 general election was the first where Democrats broke the trend by winning the late votes.