Bad Punditry

Actually, I probably didn’t do that badly. But still, I’m pretty sure I won’t win the office pool on tonight’s election.

Yesterday I looked at the huge turnout and figured it really was mostly conservatives causing the uptick. At the same time it seemed to me Democrats were not staying home the way they might have in past down years.

When it came time to make my picks I guessed Republicans would roll. So locally I thought it would mean more conservative measures and candidates doing better. Still, I picked the library levy to win, a glorious miscalculation. Here were my picks, which do not reflect how I voted” The ones in red were the ones I am wrong on so far.

Murry-Rossi=Rossi (Still possible. There is a 1.2 percent difference and Republicans typically do better with later voting. Now, this election that might not play that way out because the political winds were blowing pretty hard to the right, so conservatives may have voted earlier than usual.)
Inslee-Watkins=Inslee (The national pollsters were right to ignore the congressional races.)
Seaquist-Richards=Richards (I actually changed my vote on this one. I had Seaquist originally, then decided to go for a Republican sweep of the races I thought were close.)
Sheldon-Williams=Sheldon (I wouldn’t criticize anyone for voting for Williams. I would, however, think less of them for betting on her to win.)
Haigh-Griffey=Griffey (Still within striking distance, but I think Haigh will hang on.)
Brown-Burlingame=Brown (I was really confident about this one.)
Hauge-Danielson=Hauge (I was less certain here than I was on Brown, but still didn’t struggle much with this one.)
Armstrong-Gabriel=Armstrong (I just figured an incumbent would be tough to beat in a PUD unless there’s some major controversy.)
BI School Levy 1=Pass (It’s Bainbridge. They generally approve these things.)
BI School Levy 2=Pass
1100=Pass (Josh Farley pointed out something fascinating about this measure. It’s losing in conservative areas and winning in the more liberal spots generally. Given where the opposition has come in the Legislature, this is a surprise.)
Ref. 52=Fail
SJ 8225=Fail
HJ 4220=Pass
Prop 1=Pass (Missed that one by a mile.)
Tiebreaker was Republican-Democrat margin in the U.S. House. I had the Republicans holding a 256-179 margin. It’s likely to be something around 243-192.

I don’t know what the exit polls are saying about who voted, but if I were a Democrat I would not be that discouraged tonight. Everyone expected Republicans to roll. It would seem to me that Democratic turnout did enough to save the U.S. Senate. It is not going to be a Republican Congress versus a Democratic President. It is a split Congress. Locally Democrats are winning some close races despite this being a bad year for them.

The New York Times-Fivethirtyeight site opines that, “For a wave, this has been an incredibly orderly one.” Huge Republican upsets didn’t happen. Harry Reid won. Murray is ahead. Democrats Dennis Kucinich, Barney Frank and Raul Grijalva won.

The state races, pointed out by our live blog commenter “Daryl,” could have the biggest impact. Republicans are up pretty big in those and that could bode well in the redistricting.

By the way, the next time we have a congressional race Washington is likely to have 10 to vote for. That could mean a lot here as congressional district boundary lines are drawn.

This could be especially important if Jay Inslee, as his opponent James Watkins contends, runs for governor in 2012. Assuming we still had part of the First District (And I can think of a couple of reasons our First District presence would at least be reduced, if not eliminated.) it could mean choosing between two new candidates. In the Sixth District Norm Dicks told me he would not decide on a 2012 candidacy until next year.

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