The New York Times offers the most helpful way to determine whose numbers are closer to the truth when it comes to health plans offered by Barack Obama and John McCain. First here’s the problem:
Even the economists behind the forecasts say it makes them uncomfortable to hear candidates assert their numbers as indisputable fact, as if stating Derek Jeter’s batting average. What they are modeling, they emphasize, is ultimately unknowable. And the transformational nature of both candidates’ health care plans means that they can only guess at the future behavior of consumers, employers and insurers.
So here’s your solution:
A number of economists said voters would be wise to simply tune out all of the competing numbers and focus instead on the philosophical underpinnings of the candidates’ plans. Indeed, Dr. Reinhardt offered voters the same instruction he delivers to his students, that economics as practiced in the political arena is often “just ideology marketed in the guise of science.”
And yet here are the words of Ronald Reagan’s pollster, Richard Wirthlin, as recorded in one of the main Reagan strategy documents from 1980:
“People act on the basis of their perception of reality; there is, in fact, no political reality beyond what is perceived by the voters.”
http://tinyurl.com/5kd6mb
May want to keep that in mind when trying to decide who to trust.