What to Expect When You’re Expecting Primary Results
August 19th, 2008 by Steven GardnerThe Secretary of State said he expected 46 percent turnout.
Locally, Kitsap elections officers were predicting 60-65 percent, but the next day Walt Washington, county auditor, said he thought we’d see 55-60 percent.
The Democrats are saying primary turnout looks low.
The Republicans are saying Dino Rossi will probably have far fewer votes than Chris Gregoire, but that you shouldn’t take that as a predictor of what will happen in November.
And a college student, at least I think this comes from a college student, explains why primary results might not be a valid crystal ball for November.
We’re looking at which Democrats and Republicans move on, and is there any chance any November election will have two from the same party?
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Scripps Interactive Newspapers Group
August 19th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Considering the flood of commercials on television and the internet, I’d be very surprised if Dino Rossi didn’t run very strongly in the primary and out-polled Gov. Christine Gregoire.
A couple of other caveats:
The statewide primary turnout is being estimated at 45-50 percent, while the November general election could see 80 percent turnout. That’s adding a lot of voters to the totals candidates may get in the primary.
Two of the most Democratic counties in the state (King and Pierce) don’t conduct all mail balloting, so those two counties will tend to be under-represented in the primary tally.
Given that, it would be quite foolish to infer anything about the November vote from the primary count. Beware any political spinsters who try.
August 20th, 2008 at 6:41 am
Jeff Brody, night editor — HEAL THEYSELF about political spin. Your paper managed to run the Matthes/Garrido race story last night with the title listing “Garrido, Matthes” when in fact it should lead with Matthes since he was the clear #1 vote getter. You also managed to run the story on-line without using the picture of MATTHES your reporter sent to you.
Let’s keep the political playing field level. Why don’t you and your editorial board submit your endorsements now since we all know where they will reside? Let’s be upfront about spin. Hey, will that work?
August 20th, 2008 at 9:39 am
The Seattle Times reports that about six legislative races will have two finalists from the same party:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008126012_elexlegislature20m.html
August 20th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
James M Olsen … Have you forgotten this newpapers computer ‘glitches’ woes of yesterday? If a photo is the only thing misplaced in the paper…we’re all fortunate.
Charlie Burrow…Thanks for the url…interesting…life in the new lane.
Sharon O’Hara
August 20th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
James Olsen,
Your protocol may be right about naming the candidate with most votes first. It makes sense, but I wouldn’t know if that is what is accepted.
In any case, I don’t think it was prejudice that caused Garrido to be mentioned first. If so, why would the headlines today be “Neatherlin, Finn and Haigh Move Forward”? Finn received more votes than Neatherlin did, was endorsed by the Sun and is a Democrat.
Jeff Brody is the “Managing” Editor.
August 20th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Tom — innocent coincidence. Funny thing I have seen it before — but again just innocent coincidence. If innocent, why did the papers list it as “MATTHES, GERRIDO”? Also there was no photo. Again coincidence. Darn, I’m one skeptical reader.
Oh, and we had ALL of Jeanette Dalton comments removed from the most distributed comments. Oh, and yes Dalton was the one to receive the Sun Puzzle Palace nod in the election.
August 21st, 2008 at 2:27 am
I’ve learned a long time ago that it isn’t over until it’s over. Especially when opposing campaigns drop last minute dirt into the media’s lap.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:29 am
RV,
Sometimes it isn’t even over AFTER it’s over. Take the court antics over the last Commissioner election, for example. Or the ’04 Gubernatorial election. Or the 2000 Florida recount.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:04 pm
The depends on what you mean by ‘over’, says Clinton.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:05 pm
The = that…