Fun with Excel on Simple MajorityNovember 13th, 2007 by Steven Gardner
Everyone else is chomping on nails awaiting the final vote tally for the simple majority measure. But not I, no.
Thanks to Excel, I’ve calculated the final vote for the issue. Based on the votes left to count and where they’re coming from, I can scientifically predict the simple majority measure will win by 9,947 votes.
This is calculated by taking the number of votes left in each county, assuming everyone of those ballots will include a vote on the measure and using existing percentages to predict how the votes will go. Then I added the “yes” and “no” votes and came up with the total.
The problem in my count, however, is that late votes have been trending toward the “yes” vote than they did initially. The final margin could be significantly higher than 10,000. The Sound Politics entry mentioned in the previous post suggests the “yes” campaigners got to the late voters much better than the “no” camp.
Even if there were no King County votes left to count, the measure would still pass statewide. The votes still uncounted in King County would be a positive for simple majority by more than 5,000 votes, according to my math. But take those away and it doesn’t come close to overturning the apparent victory for the “yes” voters.