Coach Baird on Husky Football

  The decision of Jake Locker has had an unbelievable ripple effect on everything related to Husky football.  The coaches, players, fans, boosters, media and especially the recruits have all been impacted by the actions of this one young man. Of course, watching it daily and repeatedly on ESPN and on every other sports media outlet has put the University of Washington and it’s ever improving football team back into the national limelight.

    It’s been a long time since Washington has even been ranked much less gone to a bowl game or had a winning season.  This program had sunk to the bottom of college football due to the continual turnover of coaches, systems, and administrators. The program had simply lost it’s rudder and with it went the cream of the local talent.

   In college sports it always goes back to recruiting and this year’s successes highlited by this unbelievable decision of Jake to turn down millions of dollars has cast the program back into the positive side of sports news.  Something positive must also be happening with that team for this kid to make this kind of decision. It speaks loudly about the values of the kid and the program. It continues the concept of hope that happened at this exact same time last year when Steve Sarkisian was hired. Hope was about all Husky fans had,  but now they have a 10 star recruit committed heading into the new year.

   That’s what Coach Sarkisian said about Jake’s present to the team.  He called him the equivilent of signing a 10-star recruit or roughly twice as good as any of the very best players in the nation.  It is pretty obvious now as some experts already had him ranked as the best quarterback in college and one even having him rated as the highest player period in the up coming NFL draft. 

    Well, the NFL draft will just have to wait another year because along comes a kid who simply loves his college experience and his team enough to say, “no thanks, maybe next year”.  It doesn’t have to make sense and it doesn’t, but that’s totally Jake.

   I saw it when he scored his 5th touchdown against Cal.  The honest brotherhood and affection between he and his team mates while celebrating convinced me he wanted to finish what he had started and that was to win a championship.  Now I’m not saying they will win it all and go to the Rose Bowl but why not hope they will?

   This whole scenerio is all being read and watched closely by 25-30 high school seniors who are presently either committed or almost committed to joining the Husky team. It is simply the best publicity this program could possibly get.  It is another confirming reason to stay committed and sign with the Huskies the first Wednesday in February.

   Right now the Huskies have a full boat in recruiting and are only taking new commitments from the cream of the crop of west coast high school football. They will need to hang on to those they already have because other schools will certainly try to turn some. They will have to do some serious roster manipulations anyway just to stay within the NCAA limit of 85 total kids on scholarship.  Additionally, the NCAA also resticts schools to no more than 25 “initials” or new kids per year.

    To get around the initial rules they will likely bring some in this year for spring quarter thereby counting them back and they will also delay enrollment for some others by “grey shirtting” them and bring them in after next season, thereby counting them forward.

   There were only three teams in this conference who did not make it to a bowl game.  Along with WSU and ASU, the Huskies were one of them. So to get this sort of national publicity without being in the BCS, the BS, or whatever, is almost a gift from above.

   Jake Locker was annointed by some as the “savior” of the program when he signed years ago. I took offense to that and felt it was unfair to him and the only real savior this world has ever known. He is not the savior, but he is one special young man who almost single handly has been the standard bearer for this storied football program at it’s lowest point.  He now has set a standard that is almost unbelievable.  He is a great example for kids throughout this country. Get your degree, stay in school, make a total commitment to your team and finish the jobs you set out to do. Throw in perserverance and toughness and you’ve got what I call a winner. A winner off the field first then a winner between the lines.  In that order. That’s Jake Locker.

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    Call it pay-back, call it meaningless, or in Cal’s case, call it in. Whatever, the Washington Huskies ended their initial year under Steve Sarkisian with by far their best effort of the season. Even before the game ended and the Huskies began celebrating their 42-10 thrashing of a nationally ranked and thoroughly overwhelmed Cal Bear team, the focus had already turned to the decision of Jake Locker on whether he will go or stay. (Let’s let that one rest here because the decision will be eventually be made and the program will move on no matter what he decides.)

    Those of you who read my stuff know I believe that the game of football is usually won by the teams the play good defense, run the ball on offense, and are solid in the kicking game.  Now I also harp on not turning the ball over and believe that good defense means stopping the run first and then attacking the quarterback in passing situations.  Against Cal, to end their season, the Huskies did all of the above and then some.

   The Huskies outrushed a good running team in the Bears, 177 to 81, and in doing so held them to over 100 yards less then the Bears had been averaging on the season. Of course, they also out passed them including 3 touchdown passes by the before mentioned Jake Locker. They had 25 first downs and held the Bears to 14.  They had 463 total yards to the Bears 296.

     When the Bears decided to throw the Huskies attacked their quarterback relentlessly and totaled 5 sacks and at least 8 other hits on their quarterback.  That was the second week in a row where they registered 5 sacks and 3 of them went to Daniel Teo’Nesheim who now leaves Washington as the all-time sack leader with 30 on his career.  The pass rush itself matched their total the week before against WSU and that continuous pressure on the passer was the major change in the Husky defense.

     Only one shanked punt and a long kick off return by Cal marred an otherwise good performance by the Husky special teams and no interceptions or lost fumbles meant they finished the game with a +2 in the turnover ratio by having forced 3 and recovering 2 of Cal’s fumbles.

    The Huskies played their best football of the season during their last two games which they won by a combined score of 72-10.  Now granted they shut out a really weak WSU team but Cal was nationally ranked at 8-3 and hoping for a good bowl before they waltzed into Husky Stadium and got throttled by the Dawgs.

    Now I couldn’t pick the Beaver/Duck game right and also missed on the USC/Arizona game but I got the one right that mattered most to me and seeing the Huskies play the way they did erased the disappointment of not going to a bowl game and having a winning season.  Regardless, the Washington Huskies produced one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of college football going from 0-12 to 5-7 and just as importantly brought back a disgruntled fanbase.

    Washington averaged more fans than any program in the conference besides the USC Trojans.  (UCLA regularly gives tickets away to inflate their crowds) Remember that neither of the LA schools has to compete with a local pro team. In fact only ASU in the Pac-10 does and they averaged less than 49,000 in their 80,000 seat stadium. Although the announced crowd at the UW/Cal game was 62,334, that was sold ticket and there were no where close to that many filled seats.  Still, those who were there got to see the finest game of the season by this year’s Husky team.

    Progress is the one of the most important criteria when evaluating a football program. How does you team play in the month of November when championships are won? Washington was 2-2, having lost to UCLA by 1 before getting soundly thumped by Oregon State 48-21.  That set up the Cougar and Bear  games with nothing to play for except pride and belief.  These Huskies answered the call with their two best games of the season.

    They did so by playing their best defense of the whole year, running the football, being solid in the kicking game and not turning the ball over.  It’s really a very simple formula for winning in the sport of football and was proven the very next day when the Seahawks beat the 49′ers.

   So ends the first season of the Steve Sarkisian era and there is every indication that his hiring is probably the best thing that has happened to Husky football in at least a decade. He has restored hope, he has implemented his sytem, he has changed the culture and he has taught a mindset that allowed his kids to have success.  They bought in and even from their first game proved they would be competitive.  With a break or two they may have even made a bowl game had they been able to beat UCLA, ASU, or Notre Dame. Of course, they could easily have lost to Arizona had it not been for a lucky break but this team played everyone tough and if the previous administrations had known anything about scheduling they would still have another game to play.

    Things don’t get any easier next year when the Huskies open with BYU, Syracuse and Nebraska. If you understand the importance of developing your team then you don’t schedule for money, you schedule for wins and that helps you get to a bowl and those extra 15 days of practice to develop your squad. Because of past administrative greed, Washington continues to play one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country.

    Arizona played Central Michigan and Northern Arizona to start their season. Oregon State played Portland State and UNLV to start theirs. California played Maryland and Eastern Washington to start theirs. Then look at who Florida, Texas, and any other bowl bound team played and you’ll see the same scheduling philosophy.

Why, because your league games are so difficult its tough to end up with a winning record if you over schedule in your non-league games.  That is precisely why there are rarely any Pac-10 teams playing for all the marbles and probably won’t be unless someone makes an unbelievable run like we did in 1991. Coach Sarkisian has no say in who he plays but you can bet you will start seeing the Huskies adjusting their schedules down in the near future. If Scott Woodward, the Husky AD, was smart enough to hire a great young coach like Sarkisian, he is smart enough to understand how to help him have success. Too bad he wasn’t able to dump BYU or Nebraska for this coming year.

    Beating WSU and Cal so convincingly still ended their season on a positive note and the seniors who have endured all of these past 5 years are to be commended for their perserverence and for rebuilding their belief system. They and Steve Sarkisian have led this program out of the depths of despair and back onto the national football scene.

   The system is in place, the players believe in it, and the fans are backing it.  Now all they have to do is complete an already good recruiting class and continue their winning ways come next season.

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   Oregon wins the Pac-10 outright and draws The Ohio State in the Rose Bowl while USC, Arizona, and Cal all battle to position themselves for the best bowl available.  I guess that would mean the Holiday Bowl in San Diego but Oregon will be the only conference team playing on New Year’s Day.

   Fortunately, USC and Arizona play each other this weekend so the decision will probably be made immediately with the outcome of that game.  Since getting a national ranking and racing off to a great start, the Wildcats of Arizona have hit a few bumps coming down the stretch in conference play. They are traveling to LA for one of only two conference games left on the slate.  The other game of course involves a resurgent Husky team hosting a really good Cal Bear team.

    I think Washington will play Cal tough but will win a close one at the finish.  If they succeed in beating Da’Bears, it will mark one of the most impressive turnarounds of any program in collegiate history.  To go from 0-12 to 5-7 will be really difficult simply because Cal, picked by many to be one of the top teams in the conference, is already 8-3 and likely to end in the Sun Bowl, which in El Paso, is the closest bowl to the Wildcats besides the Fiesta Bowl which is designated for the BCS.

    Should USC beat Arizona in their finale, they will most likely go to the Holiday Bowl and Arizona is liable to fall all the way to the bottom and end up in either the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas or the San Diego CCU Poinsetta Bowl.  Just by the names alone you can tell they are secondary bowls and right now there are 7 Pac-10 teams eligible for 6 bowl spots. Should the Cal Bears beat the Huskies, they will finish 6-3 in league and will tie Stanford, Oregon State and USC (assuming they beat Arizona), for second place in the final conference standings.

    That would mean Oregon will be the only Pac-10 BCS school and the only one from this conference in a good bowl. If Washington were to upset California, and it will definitely be an upset, then Cal could fall to the Emerald Bowl played in San Francisco.  The Emerald Bowl, which goes to the 4th or 5th placed team in the conference, wants either Stanford or Cal as that would really boost their attendance to have a local team involved. If Cal and USC both win then USC goes to San Diego and Cal probably ends up in El Paso.

    However, because the Huskies are going to upset Cal, Da’Bears are likely to to end up staying at home playing in the Emerald Bowl with Stanford drawing El Paso. Arizona falls to the Las Vegas where they beat BYU last year. Oregon State drops all the way from the Rose Bowl to the Poinsetta Bowl. That’s the 6 bowls prearranged by the conference and it leaves out Rick Neuheisel and his UCLA Bruins, who at 6-6 qualify for consideration, but at 3-6 in conference probably don’t deserve a bowl anyway.

    Beating California will be a great win for the Huskies who have already exceeded most expectations by winning 4 games and almost winning 4 others. They will play this weekend without Ryan Tolar who has started every game this year at center.  He will be replaced by little used Makenna Ikihara, who has been Tolar’s backup all season, but has had little playing time.

    This match-up could be a difficult one for Washinton because Cal uses predominantly an odd front and will always have a man on the center’s nose. The Bears’ noseman is Aaron Tipoti and he plays like a sumo wrestler.  He has a very compact stance and immediately attacks the center after every snap. Ikihara will have his hands full all day and is short and compact himself so he will be in hand to hand combat almost every play. That could be interesting particularly when Ikihara is snapping in the shot gun. The Bears will be playing without their best player because Jahvid Best has been ruled out of this contest due to a concussion.

    It is the Cal defense that usually gets overshadowed by their offense that really impresses me. They have 5 senior starters on their defensive unit that starts 4 linebackers.  Their two defensive tackles, # 44 Tyson Alualu and #97 Cameron Jordan are really aggressive and run lots of stunts with the linebackers especially #9 Eddie Young who is their best blitzer. 

    Their defense is really solid right up the middle with  linebacker Mike Mohamed, #18, leading their team and the conference in tackles.  Mohamed will enter this game with 100 tackles on the season and will no doubt be primarily concerned with Chris Polk, the Huskies’ 1000 yard gainer. He also has 3 interceptions and is helped by senior safety, Brett Johnson and senior corner, Syd’Quan Thompson who has 8 pass break ups and 45 tackles on the season.

   If Cal’s defense has a weakness, it is in their pass defense where they are 9th in the conference giving up 2827 yards and 14 touchdowns which is actually worse than Washington’s secondary that has struggle all year long.  Hopefully, that means Jake Locker could have a 300 yard plus passing night and if he could run for another 75 to 100, could have a monster game accounting for 400 yards on the night.  If that happens then Washington will be in good shape to pull off this upset.

   Cal’s offense is led by quarterback, Kevin Riley, who although not a great player, is certainly good enough to have won 8 games this year.  He will not have Best to hand off to but he will have Shane Vereen who has gained 738 yards as Best’s replacement. Vereen also returns kickoffs and is dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver.

   Washington’s defense is coming off their best performance of the season against WSU and seems poised to take on one of the higher echelon teams in this conference. Many people picked Cal to win the Pac-10 but their schedule had them playing Oregon and USC to open league play where they got throttled 42-3 and 30-3 respectively.  Since those two games the Bears have settle in winning 5 of their last 6 games icluding upset wins over Arizona and Stanford.  They have had 2 weeks to prepare for Washington and know that the last time they played in Husky Stadium they got mauled by a Dog pack in 2007 when Washington rushed the ball 56 times for 334 yards in what was probably Tyrone Willingham’s best conference win.

   That won’t happen this time but Washington is capable of beating the Bears it they can win the run game and not turn the ball over.  Do those two things and not lose the kicking game and Washington could steal a game to end their season on a positve note. Cal is already going to a bowl and it really doesn’t matter if they win or lose because it won’t be a good bowl anyway. Cal’s players as a whole are probably better than those wearing the purple and the gold but this is an anticlimatic game for them and maybe they will lay another egg in Husky Stadium. That would be a great ending to this season of resurgence.

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     The Oregon Ducks host the Beavers of Oregon State for the Pac-10 Championship and a trip to Pasadena to play in the grand daddy of all the bowls, the Rose Bowl. If the 7-1 Ducks lose, they will go to the Holiday Bowl which is given to the second place finisher in the conference, but if the 6-2 Beavers lose, they could end up in the Sun Bowl or even lower in the Emerald Bowl or Vegas Bowl. That’s because after the Rose Bowl, this conference has nothing but small and low paying bowls who get to take their pick of what is left over after the champion is decided.

     Lots of fans in this state hope nobody wins the Civil War but I’m rooting for Oregon State simply because Oregon is supposed to win.  I also think the Beavers have a better passing quarterback in Sean Canfield and a better running back in Jacquizz Rodgers.  Jeremiah Masoli, the Ducks’ quarterback, is excellent at running their hybrid option attack but he is not the passer Canfield is and I think this will be a shoot out and the best passing team is going to win.

     Oregon is more aggressive on the defensive side of the ball but the Beavers are really strong up front and have the best rushing defense in the conference.  Considering that the Ducks are primarily a running team (they are almost last in passing and at 9th in the conference are only slightly better than the Cougars in pass offense) I think this will be the difference in this game. Oregon State has 3 receivers in the top 10 in the conference while the Ducks have one in Jeff Maehl who is 10th.

    Nobody has really figured out how to stop the Ducks when they have the ball but the Beavers have come closest over the past few years and have beaten the Ducks in the past.  This time around I just think that the Beavers are primed and have the edge in speed and will not be intimidated by Autzen Stadium.

    Of course, you can throw out all the stats in a rivalry game but you can’t throw out the speed of the Rodgers brothers who will be the difference makers in this game. That’s what it gets down to for me.  James Rodgers, the older brother,  is not only the leading receiver in the conference but he is also the all purpose leader because he also runs the ball on their fly sweep and returns kickoffs and punts as well as catching passes.

   Oregon counters with LaMichael James as their main running threat and he is also cat quick but not as powerfull as Jacquizz is as a runner.  Both are small but Rodgers is more compact and shows more power at the point of contact. I would guess that both of these backs will go over 100 yards in this game but it will be the passing of Canfield and the over all performances by the Rodgers brothers that will send the Beavers to the Rose Bowl.

   It is interesting to note that although the two Oregon schools have been getting the best of the Washington schools over the past 5 years, their overall record, particularly against Washington, still shows a wide margin by the Huskies. The Huskies actually lead the Ducks 58-39-5 and the Beavers 57-33-4. In fact, the Huskies who also lead the Cougars 64-31-6 (lots of ties), have a combined record of 179 wins and 103 losses and those 15 ties against their fellow northwest schools. Another overall stat of interest is that the Huskies have swept the three other schools 28 times out of the 80 seasons when they were all on the schedule. So, even though the league title is being played south of the border the real kingpin of northwest football has always been the Washington Huskies. This, in itself, probably explains the Ducks’ continual negative attitude towards the purple and the gold. Regardless, its the green and gold vs the black and orange for all the marbles and a trip to LA and the Rose Bowl. From my standpoint, all I can say is “Go Beavs!”

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