Coach Baird on Husky Football

   It wasn’t as easy as the 30-0 score would indicate and the Cougars did put up a fight for a while but Washington clearly separted themselves from WSU at the bottom of the conference.

    As expected Chris Polk was the dominating runner and when Jake Locker decided in the second half to start running himself then it was all over for the Cougars. Between the two of them they rushed for 231 yards and a touchdown for each against a game but outmanned Cougar defense.

    The Cougars actually made a game of it for a while trailing only 3-0 at the end of the first quarter and only 13-0 at half.  Had they gotten anything out of their offense they could have made it closer but they never got closer than the Huskies’ 35 yard line.

    This game was clearly won by the Husky defense, who beside pitching a shutout, had their best performance of the season.  They held the Cougs to only 163 total yards including only 47 yards rushing on 40 carries for an average of 1.7 per rush. The Huskies had 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss and probably hit the Cougar quarterbacks another 10 times including 2 hits that knocked their quarterbacks out of the game.   When the Cougs were forced to go to their 4th string quarterback at the end of the first half, you knew they were in trouble.

   It was a great rebound for a Husky team that had been stuffed in their previous game against Oregon State and it had to impress the dozen or so recruits they were hosting for the weekend. Cerainly a win over a really good California team this coming weekend will propell the Dawgs into an off season with a renewed confidence that they have turned the corner in this program.

    Washington will be hard pressed to repeat their performance this coming weekend because at 8-3 and nationally ranked the Bears are itching to land in the best bowl they can.  Only problem is that besides the Rose Bowl there aren’t any good bowls to go to.  The Pac-10 has a really weak bowl arrangement and even though 6 conference teams may be invited, none of the other bowls are on New Year’s Day and none are of national significance.  That and the fact that the Pac-10 is the only major conference in the country that plays everyone in league and therefore can’t load up on non-conference patsies like the SEC, Big 12, Big Eat and Big 10 do. Because of this you may never see a Pac-10 team play for the national championship again unless they are undefeated.

    So the Cal Bears will come into Husky Stadium with a bowl bid already in hand and the only incentive to wipe out their last visit here in 2007 when the Huskies ran the ball right down their throats for 334 yards on 56 carries.  That’s not going to happen this year but any win will be a big win for the Huskies here.

   Cal may or may not be without their star player, Jahvid Best, who suffered a horrific concussion three weeks ago.  Best is clearly the best back in the conference besides maybe Toby Gerhart at Stanford and I think will declare himself for the draft this year no matter if he plays or not.  Best has the best high end speed of any tailback who has ever played at Cal.  A former state 100 meter champion, Best adds a speed demension that belongs at the next level.  I think he is headed that way and may just by-pass this Husky game because of it.

    Cal’s stunning defeat of Stanford in the Big Game two weeks ago totally upset the conference race and sets up the Civil War in Eugene this Thursday with the winner getting the Roses. The Bears are already bowl eligible so maybe they will be lacking incentive against the Huskies.  The Dawgs are certain to be prepared coming off their Apple Cup win but this is a lot better team than the Cougars and in fact beat the Cougs 49-17 back in October. The Cougs did, however, gain 440 yards of total offnese that day and their 17 points is the most they have scored against anyone in the PAC-10. The Cougars actually got all their points in the first half and their freshman quarterback, Jeff Tuel, who did not play against the Huskies, was 29 of 43 for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns.  That should indicate that Jake Locker could have a great game and that may win the game for Washington.

    Let’s hope this game is not Jake Locker’s last for the Huskies as I think he has some unfinished business here at Washington.

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   With the exception of Notre Dame visiting Stanford the Pac-10 features all rivalry games this weekend. Washington hosts the Cougars in their annual battle and both teams are staggering into the finish. UCLA is at USC and Arizona visits ASU.

    I was surprized that Stanford flopped so bad in the Big Game last weekend against Cal, especially with Cal missing Jahvid Best and all. Their freshman quarterback played like one and the loss knocked the Cardinal out of any chance for the title and sends them to a mid-tier bowl.  The are hosting a team that looks as though they are about to lose their coach.  Although I can’t believe that Notre Dame will spend the 15 or so million dollars just to buy out Charlie Weis’ contract, everyone seems to think its all but over.

     I think Stanford drives the last nail in the coffin for Charlie and that means my good friend Randy Hart will again be out of a job.  Randy got fired with Lambo, Rick Neuheisel, Gilby, and Tyrone and now has a chance to get fired with Weis.  The great optimist that Randy was always said, “There are only two kinds of coaches, those who have been fired and those who will get fired”. He should know because he has been in the profession for close to 40 years and has been fired at least a 8-9 times already. I’m rooting for the Irish because of Randy but I think Stanford will run it down their throat. Of course, the Irish kids could fire up and win one for the Gipper or the Pillsbury doughboy, whatever.

    Arizona got knocked down last weekend as well, getting beaten by Oregon in a battle for the conference championship.  They played a really good game going into double overtime before losing 44-41 in what was a really hard fought and hotly contested.  Now Arizona must prove it is for real by beating the Sun Devils on the road and then beating USC to finish the season. They should take care of the first part as Dennis Erickson’s team is staggering toward the bottom right along with Washington and WSU.

   Arizona’s loss tumbled them from a potential 1st to 6th in the conference and puts them in a must win before they play the Trojans to end the season.

   UCLA is at USC for the battle of LA and both teams need the win to maintain any hope of the Holiday Bowl or in the Bruin’s case maybe any hope of a bowl at all.  The Bruins stand at only 6-5 and are technically eligible for a bowl but at 6-6 they would be a real week consideration.  UCLA fans don’t travel much for lower bowls and they may be passed over unless they win. With their consecutive victories over the Washinton schools the Bruins are getting better and could contest the Trojans but I think USC will win a close one.  Both of these teams are really good on defense because they both are loaded with athletes who can run.  They play the night game and the Trojans are at home so I think they control the game with their run and win going away.

    That leaves the Apple Cup and I want to be clear that I want the Huskies to fire and really have a good game. I make no bones about it, I know I played at WSU and fully respect all my team mates and the school, but I am a Husky now and have been for almost 25 years.  I was a Cougar for the years I played there and remained loyal until I went to work at Washington.  I put in a huge chunk of my career into the Washington Huskies and will always be proud of what we accomplished under Coach James and Coach Lambright.

   There is no doubt Washoington should win the game but I know this will be the best effort of the season for the Cougs.  Over there this is the game. No question about it, this is the most important game in every Cougar’s year.  At Washington, they have other rivalries like Oregon and USC to distract them.  For the Cougars its Washington.

    I hold the distinction of accepting the first Apple Cup ever won by WSU.  It was after the 1967 game won 9-7 by the Cougs. Then Gov. Dan Evans and Miss Washington presented me and my fellow captain with the trophy.  It was simply one of the greatest athletic moments of my life.  That’s exactly what I’m talking about. The Cougars had lost 8 straight years until that moment.  We were terrible coming into the game having only won 1 game and losing 8.  Sound familiar? That’s what makes the Apple Cup so special.

   Washington will need to attack hard right off the start and put pressure on the Cougars on both sides of the ball. There will be a premium on not making mistakes because both of these teams have those tendencies.  Washington is one of the most penalized teams in the league and WSU’s opponents have been penalized more than any other team. In fact, that is the only catagory that WSU leads the conference in; opponents penalties, where they have gained more yards (814) than they have gained rushing (801). I know you’re thinking this can’t be, but it’s true.  The Cougars have gained more in penalty yardage than they have running the football.

    If Washington can run the football and stuff the run on defense then they will dominate this game. Now they may have to set up the run with the pass but running the football will win this game for Washington.  From my viewpoint that means Jake Locker too. Turn him loose and tell him to run on bootlegs and roll outs as well as the zone option play off a fake to Chris Polk. Then keep mixing the run plays to Polk and periodically take some long shots at the Cougar corners.

     Both of these teams are inconsistent in their special teams and should either get a return or block then it would certainly swing momentum. The Cougars punter will keep them alive in the field position battle but Washington needs to finally get a return for a touchdown.

    Defensively, the Huskies should be able to adjust to the no-huddle offense of the Cougs because they are very slow and deliberate about it. The Cougs will always immediately line up, then get the call from the bench,  then see what the defense is going to show and then change their call. I think Kevin Lopina starts at quarterback because he is a senior and then they will go to their freshman, Jeff Tuel. Washington should dial up some blitzes and pressure who ever the QB is.

     Allowing the Cougars to hang around will be asking for trouble so the Huskies should ride any momentum they get and try to put it away early.  There doesn’t appear to be much chance for the Cougars but that was the case last year and in 1967.

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   Washington’s coaches would be smart to hide the Pac-10 stats from their players as they prepare for this week’s game against the WSU Cougars.  Oh, let them watch the films but don’t let them look at see the box scores because the Cougs aren’t just bad, they are down right awful.

     Statistical comparisons in this conference are all washed out anyway because of the discrepancies in out of league play. The right way would be to just keep in-conference stats and throw out games against Portland State, Northern Arizona, Idaho State, and LSU and Notre Dame for that matter.

   Even if they did that, the Cougars would still look terrible and all their statistical data would still indicate they are a terrible football team.  They might be but they are obviously getting better than they were and that is why they are not talking about firing their coach, Paul Wulff.  Of course the real reason is they don’t have enough money to fire him and besides after two years on the job, Wulff is at least developing his young talent and obviously needs 2 more full recruiting classes before it will even be fair to evaluate the progress he is making in Pullman.

    The Husky team knows how losing to a bad team can be because they lost to the Cougars last year and the Cougs were worse then than they are now.  They will see that in their film study but they will also see lots of different combinations of players because the starting line-ups for the Cougars look like a revolving door.  Every week they have different starters and lots of them are true freshmen. That in itself can get you beat in this league.

    So here they are, getting ready to try and win the Apple Cup with everyone telling them they are going to do so because WSU is so bad and the only question will be by how much.  That is the task at hand for Steve Sarkisian.  How does he keep his team focused and respectful of an opponent that looks so terrible on paper? Probably by treating this game just like the USC game and that is exactly what he is doing.

    Sure there is the added emotion of a rivalry and he does have Johnny Nansen on his staff and Nansen did play for the Cougs and he will be telling the Huskies how emotionally charged up the Cougs will be for this game.  He will no doubt tell the Huskies how this game will make the Cougars’ whole year.  How any Cougar will tell you that beating Washington is the most significant thing  every year and one of the biggest games of their lives.

    It was for me when I was a senior at WSU and we came into Husky Stadium as the worst team in the conference at 1-8 and left a winner.  We had only beaten Idaho and Washington but if you’re a Coug, then what else is there? This is their bowl game and their biggest game every year.  Nothing compares to beating the Huskies if you’re a Coug and it doesn’t make any difference is you’re 10-1 or 1-10, which they are.

    That is what Washington faces this weekend.  It is really unfair to the Husky kids because it’s not going to be great just to win the game.  They are expected to win easily and by lots of points but when you don’t score many yourself it’s hard to beat someone, by say 26 points, especially when you havn’t even scored that many in 7 of your 10 games.

    This game will be a good football game played by two not very good football teams and the team that makes the most mistakes will probably lose. That’s the way it usually is and turnovers could again be the deciding factor. Like I said though, winning is all that matters to WSU whereas Washington is expected to win big.  I think it will be a closer game than statistics would indicate and from my view Washington will be excited just to win this game and they probably will.

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   It doesn’t matter what the records are and this year that’s a good thing because when the 3-7 Huskies host the 1-10 Cougars anything can happen.  Last year I knew the Huskies hadn’t won a game but after looking at tapes of WSU in at least 6 games I was convinced they were one of the worst teams I’d ever seen for decades in the Pac-10.  What happened? The Cougars won and made the Huskies perfect on the season at o-12. Point is anything can happen in the Apple Cup and after playing in 3, coaching in 16, and now seeing the last 10 as a member of the sports media, I know I have seen some incredible games.  Every single Apple Cup has been special especially when you’re involved but more so just because of the passion of the two sets of fans.

    I am proud to have played at Washington State and my senior year (1967) we were only 1-8 coming into the Apple Cup, yet beat the Huskies in Seattle in an offensive shoot-out,  9-7.  It was clearly my all time favorite collegiate memory because, as captain, I got to accept the Apple Cup for the first time in history for the WSU Cougars.  That’s because we had lost 8 straight years to the Huskies and the Apple Cup wasn’t the name of the award.

    My 15 years at Washington as a coach has pretty much swung my loyalties over to Huskies but I honestly root for both schools.  Except in this game. I root for the Huskies and I think they will win the game but it will probably be closer than most people think. 

    Looking at statistics for comparisons is ridiculous because the Cougars are simply awful. They are the worst in the conference in 22 of 33 statistical catagories including being worst in record, scoring, total offense, and total defense. They are injured, beat up, and didn’t have any depth in the first place. They are down to their third quarterback and he is a true freshman. They have given up almost twice as many sacks any other team on one side of the ball and are giving up over 500 yards per game on the other side. They have lost more turnovers by almost 10. They only rush for 75 yards per game and give up close 40 points every time they play. Statistically this Cougar team is terrible. They are even worse than they were last year and we all know what happened then. They won.

     That is the point.  You can bet that any Cougar who can possibly play will do so this weekend.  There will be a great crowd in Husky Stadium.  There will be lots of trash talked all week long in offices and schools throughout the state. Then will be another great Apple Cup played this weekend.

    This season I decided to tape all Pac-10 games and then watch the up-coming opponent as well as the Huskies’ last game. Problem is the Cougars have not been on televison much this year so I’ve only seen them play two times.  I will be able to watch them in the coaches offices this week but am dissapppointed they don’t get more TV exposure.  Then to see that only 16,000 fans showed up for their last home game is even sadder. The Cougars now the losingest team over a two year program in the history of the conference but if the Huskies allow them to hang around and keep it close then we all know anything can happen.

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   Most of the Pac-10 is down to only 2 games left on the season and the Rose Bowl is still up for grabs. Washington and USC both have the weekend off and both are coming off of divestating losses that have soured their seasons. Washington was drubbed by Oregon State 48-21, and the Trojans were humiliated by Stanford 55-21.  The Huskies and the Trojans both play their respective rivals, WSU and UCLA, the next weekend. Both should get well doing so.

    This weekend the Cougars host Oregon State and the way the Beavers are playing right now I’d be surprised if they don’t put up 50 on the Cougars.  They have simply too much speed and strength for the Cougs to match and they are still in the title hunt if they can win out. I think they have an excellent chance of beating both the Cougs and the Ducks to end their season.

     The Oregon Ducks take their 6-1 conference leading record into Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona got stunned by Cal last weekend and I think the Ducks will finish off any hope of this being the Wildcats’ first Rose Bowl ever. Oregon rolled up ASU last weekend and should win this one even if they are on the road.  A win here coupled with a Beaver win over WSU and the Rose Bowl could be decided in the annual Civil War played this year in Eugene on December 3rd.

   ASU travels to the Rose Bowl to play UCLA with slim hopes for a post season bowl.  The Sun Devils sit tied with the Huskies at 2-5 in league and UCLA is coming off successive wins over the Washington schools. A win here makes the Bruins bowl eligible and they probably have the talent to get it done. These are two teams that the Huskies could have and should have beaten but they going in opposite directions so UCLA looks like the winner.

   That leaves the Big Game being played in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  With a 6-2 record, the Cardinal have a chance to win a part of the conference championship if they can beat the Bears and considering Cal is probably without Jahvid Best they will probably do so.  A decisive win by Stanford would leave them with only Notre Dame left to play. Should the Ducks lose to Arizona or Oregon State and Stanford beats Cal then the Cardinal could get a piece of the title as well.

    However, if Arizona were to beat the Ducks, then they would still have to beat ASU and USC in LA to win the title. If they indeed run the table then the roses are theirs. I think they will be hard pressed to do so.  It is possible that Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford could all end up with 7-2 records.  Stanford lost to the Beavers but beat the Ducks.  If the Beavers win out then they will go having beaten both the Cardinal and the Ducks.  That is why there is little or no chance of them losing in Pullman.

    Whatever, we can almost be assured that with 3 losses, the USC Trojans are not going to be repeating as Pac-10 champions. Had they not lost to upstart Washington earlier this year this would be an entirely different ending.

   The conference race is going right down to the wire and the Arizona/Oregon game is going to play a major role in determining the final champion. That is the biggest game on the schedule this weekend and I like the Ducks to get it done.

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    The answer to the Huskies resurgence is obviously in getting better players. After going thru 4 sets of coaches in the last 10 years, it’s about time to realize it might not be the coaching, it just might be the players and the only way to improve personnel is thru recruiting. Coaches are responsible for recruiting, however, and because of the constant turnover in coaching, the recruiting has had no continuity to it.

    Unfortunately, for both the UW and WSU, it’s the same situation.  Continuous turnovers in coaching have driven both teams from the top of the conference to the bottom.  Coach Sarkisian uses the phrase, “It’s not X’s and O’s, it’s Jimmys and Joes”.

    That is the reality of college coaching and that has been the priority since Sarkisian was named coach last December. His first hire was Johnny Nansen, his special teams coach and recruiting coordinator.  Nansen actually hit the road recruiting in California before even coming to Seattle.  He and Sark and his staff immediately went out and signed 19 kids by the first of February and were off and running on this coming year’s class which now sits at 23 commitments.  That’s 42 kids in less than 1 year and whereas 3 never made it into school and another got dismissed, that still leaves 38 new Huskies.

    Of course, the 23 from this year are only verbal commitments, and none are final until they actually sign a national letter of intent the first Wednesday in February. Still, the 23 represent a major overhaul of the program and considering you only get 85 total kids on scholarship, it also represents over 1/4th of your roster.

    Of the 23 committed new Huskies, 13 are from California, 8 are from Washington, and 1 each from Oregon and Hawaii. The NCAA allows a maximum of 25 signees each year but you don’t have to count them until they actually enroll in college and begin practices in August.

     The Huskies will be practicing Mon-Wed. this week and then 7 of the coaches (per NCAA limits) will hit the road again for evaluation and recruiting.  They are probably close to being done for this year because they already have way more commitments than they have openings on the 85 man squad.  They only have about a dozen spots opening from a very small senior class, so some kids currently on rides will not be invited back.

    College scholarships are really only 1-year renewable contracts but most colleges honor them as automatic rollovers.  There have already been a couple of kids decide they are not returning for next year and there will certainly be more attrition. Developing your roster is a constant process and there are always comings and goings, so you have to be constantly aware of both your total numbers (85) but also your yearly quota (25).

    I think the Huskies will end up with a full 25 signees and figure that some will not be eligible for enrollment and end up going to JC’s or “greyshirting” which means they will not enroll in the fall of next year but will wait and enroll in January for winter quarter.  These will be counted forward on the next year’s numbers.

    Whatever, recruiting is the answer to getting better and for both of the Washington schools to become more competitive. Washington needs to address their shortages in the lines  and will probably only be adding players in those positions, if they add any at all.  Technically the Huskies are probably already full but you always take top level kids if they want to come and simply make room for them.

    In recruiting, having balance is critical in every class.  That way you always have depth in each position on the team.  That has really hurt Washington this year because previous classes ignored the line areas. At this point the Dawgs have 4 offensive linemen committed and only 3 defensive linemen with only 1 being an inside or defensive tackle. Considering football games are still won up front, you can bet they are still pursuing more big bodies.

     This is still only an evaluation period and that restricts the coaches from any person contact with kids even if they are already committed.  They are likewise still restricted to 1 phone call or text message per week but are allowed to visit high schools, attend games, and talk with coaches and counselors. (“Evaluation” period)

    The “contact’ period begins in December and then coaches may see a recruit once per week and have unlimited calls.  Of course, prospects can always call them and there will be a number visiting for the WSU game in two weeks.  Prospects may go to any of your home games and I would imagine Washington will have a number present to watch them play the Cougars.

    Right now the Huskies need to hang onto the kids they already have committed as other schools, like Oregon, never honor commitments especially if they are to lower tier schools like the Washington teams. You always lose a kid or two coming down the stretch and it’s never over until signing date in February.

    Consequently, the coaches will be out working hard to hold on to those they’ve already got, hopefully adding another uncommitted top flight kid, and researching all the underclassmen to get a jump start on the class of 2011.  I have always found that the schools that do not go to bowl games usually have better than average recruiting classes simply because they can offer playing time and a bigger need.  This has not necessarily been the case with either the Huskies or the Cougars. Both have been desperate and therefore have taken kids that would not otherwise have been offered.

     It is the quality of your depth that often determines the outcome of your season.  This year was a good example because as soon as the Huskies began having injuries, their level of depth was exposed and they started losing again.

     The energy and excitement of Coach Sarkisian and his staff have given recruits hope that things are changing and that the future is brighter than the present. They will be involved in the turnaround and they have an excellent chance at being an intregal part of it.  It’s all about hope when you’re losing.  You have to be selling the hope for change and being part of the process.

    Washington is still in Seattle and it has always been the premier college in the entire Pacific Northwest.  Selling kids on coming to a rebuilding process is the toughest part of the sell.  So far Coach Sarkisian and his staff have been succeeding in their sales and now it’s just a matter of getting their signatures on the dotted line come February.

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   The Oregon State Beavers officially put a fork into the Huskies’ season and any chance for a bowl game when they throughly defeated the Dogs Saturday night in Corvallis.  The Huskies flopped almost from the first play when Jake Locker threw an interception. It was followed shortly thereafter with a 7 yard punt and the Beaver dam burst any chances of a post season bowl game for a Husky team that really needs one.

    Bowl games help you build your team.  They are a bonus opportunity to work on fundamentals and to develop your underclassmen. You need a winning record to earn the opportunity and when you play every other team in a tough conference it only leaves 3 out-of-league games.  If you play really tough teams, like an LSU or Notre Dame, then you hurt your mathematical chances for a winning record.  Washington had goal set to get into a bowl but they had over scheduled for money considerations and now after being hammered by the Beavers need to reset their goals for these last two games.

    It has now been 7 years and three coaches since Washington last went bowling for the holidays and that has directly impacted the development of the Husky team.  Going to a bowl rewards you with 15 extra days of practice and those are just as important as the 15 you get for spring drills.  It means that the Huskies have now lost 105 practices they would otherwise have had and that is the equivilent of a whole season of practices. 

     This is one of the obvious negatives of the bowl system.  The teams that need to practice the most don’t get those extra practices so the rich just get richer.  Considering there are close to 35 bowls right now, it means 70 of the 120 bowl div ision teams get to work their teams for 3 more weeks and the teams that need the work the most get nothing.

    The obvious solution would be to allow all division one teams to hold 15 winter or post season practices to be held in December or January regardless if you go to a bowl game or not.  They essentially do that in basketball with the NIT and other post season tounaments that allow over a 110 teams to continue to play.

    College football is so married to their bowl system they don’t even realize how it negatively it impacts their lower teams much less eliminating any chance for a playoff to crown a true national champion. I have to believe that sooner or later they will realize the tremendous amount of money they are leaving on the table and go ahead and incorporate the bowl games into some kind of a playoff.

    During the bowl pactices we always spent extra time with the younger players.  We often tried kids in different positions to further help the team, and for guys like Jerremy Stevens, who went from quarterback to tight end, it meant millions of dollars for him. During the season you are so tuned in to preparing for the next opponent that you don’t spend any time developing your younger players.

    The Beaver’s dismantling of the Huskies was understandable simply because they are a better overall football team and have the quality depth that Washington doesn’t have. They had also been to 5 straight bowl games so had practiced 75 more times.

     It will probably take two full recruiting classes for Washington to reach the point of parody with regard to depth. The Huskies haven’t even spent a full year under their current system and that really showed in the lines.  The Huskies are still getting manhandled at times up front and that was obvious from the first snap when the Beaver defensive line literally pushed right thru the Husky offensive front.

    Jake Locker had defensive linemen in his face all Saturday night and the Beavers recorded 4 sacks besides hitting Jake at least a half of dozen other times. The offense never got untracked and actually had 5-6, “3 and outs” or failed to get a first down on all those tries. Considering how out-manned Washington has been up-front, it’s a wonder they haven’t been rolled up earlier this season.  With the exception of Oregon and Stanford, Washington had played everyone tough including Notre Dame, ASU, and UCLA, all teams the Huskies lost to on the road and in the last minute of the game.

     Now the Huskies have 2 weeks to prepare for the WSU Cougars who will host the same Beaver team this coming weekend.  Oregon State is still in the hunt for the Rose Bowl and should they beat both the Cougars and the Ducks, they might earn a tie for the confereence championship.  With that sort of incentive they almost certainly will demolish the Cougars to set up a Civil War that might be for all the marbles.

      Meanwhile the Huskies have two games left on a schedule that is going nowhere but into the furture.  They are a lot better team than they showed in Corvallis and have really improved as a team since last spring.  A strong finish will set them up for a great off-season of hard work. Beating the Cougars is never easy simply because it is such a rivalry game.

     Having played for the Cougars myself, I can only say that beating the Huskies is the most important thing in a Cougar’s lifetime.  Last year was a classic example because WSU was simply one of the worst teams I’d ever seen in this conference but somehow they found a way to beat the Huskies.  Of course, the Huskies were the worst team in the history of their school.  They had given early indications this year that they had shed those negative ways only to have slid into this last losing streak where they have dropped six out of the last seven.

    Coach Sarkisian now has two weeks to refresh his team and hopefully gets back some key players.

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    The winner of the Pac-10 conference is probably going to have 2 losses and it could end up being a 2 way tie.  Right now the Oregon Ducks are still on top with a 5-1 record and are followed by Arizona at 4-1, and Stanford at 5-2, with USC and Oregon State both lurking at 4-2. Essentially, half the conference; Cal, ASU,Washington, Ucla, and WSU are already eliminated from championship consideration.

   Arizona finishes with Cal this week, and then has Oregon, ASU, and USC, so 3 teams at the top of the conference all play eachother. The game next week in Tempe between Arizona and Oregon will probably decide the conference title and Rose Bowl invitation. An upset this weekend though is going to happen somewhere in the conference.

     With Stanford playing at USC, one of those two will likewise be eliminated and in spite of their brilliant win over Oregon, the Cardinal are going to be hard pressed to win in LA. USC has the best scoring defense in the conference giving up only 18points a game and a low scoring affair probably would favor the Trojans. The Stanford Cardinal only have this game and their Big Game against Cal left in league so this is a huge game for them.  USC is favored to win by 10 but I don’t think so.  Stanford is really a good football team  and I think they will follow up their win over Oregon by knocking off the Trojans in a close one on the road. Stanford can simply run the football and their young quarterback, Andrew Luck, is developing into one of the best in the conference.  A Trojan loss here would be their third in league and would eliminate them from another consecutive championship. Road win for Stanford.

    Arizona visits Cal and the Bears won’t be at their Best because the lost their Best player in Jahvid Best, arguably one of the Best backs in the country. I think Arizona is rolling right now and will keep it going with a win over the broken Bears. Road win for Wildcats.

    UCLA travels to Pullman and although a 20 point favorite will not win by that much.  They will beat the Cougars but will struggle doing so for about a half and then win going away in the fourth quarter. There could be less than 20,000 fans for this one as the lowly Cougars are limping to the finish.  They will battle hard for a while then break down in the kicking game again and UCLA will put them away. Road win for Bruins.

     The Oregon Ducks host ASU and will get back on track with a solid win in Eugene. The Ducks were exposed by Stanford but will no doubt rebound with a big win at home.  ASU is still having QB problems and has had the whole year and playing on the road won’t help them here as they are catching the Ducks at a bad time. This one could get real ugly with the Ducks scoring in the 40′s or 50′s. Who knows? the Sun Devil defense could hold tough for a while, but I don’t think so. Ducks only home team to win this weekend.

   That leaves the Huskies at Oregon State in the battle of opposites.  The Beavers are 6-3 and 4-2 in league and the Huskies are 3-6 and 2-4.  With the Huskies, Cougars and Ducks left to play, you can bet the Beavers think they can run the table. They look faster on tape than Washington, they are a more mature program that has been to 5 straight bowls and they have quality depth. Stopping their offense won’t be easy but slowing it down is certainly possible.

    Winning this sort of game in this sort of season takes a lot of things falling into place.  Especially when you are playing on the road, you need the ball to bounce your way. Sure tackling will be at a premium because the Rodgers brothers aren’t just fast, they’re also quick.  They will make you miss so wrapping up becomes extra important. Washington needs to keep ripping at the ball just as they have done all year long. So what if the Beavers have only lost one fumble, make them fumble twice.

  They need to put some pressure on Canfield and that might mean bringing more blitzes and stunts with linebackers and defensive backs. Other teams have had success making Canfield throw early or challenging him to run. He will but is not very quick so rarely does. They have given up 23 sacks this year and I am certain the Huskies have looked at just how other teams like USC and Arizona got it done.

    The Huskies have a chance if their offense explodes and plays it’s best game of the season.  That is probably what it is going to take to win this game. Washington’s offense needs to score at least 5 touchdowns and they could also use one from the defense or kicking game. I always believe the Huskies will win the game so I will always pick them and don’t care if I’m right or not. That said, Huskies win the game by one with a field goal at the buzzer. That would take them to 3-4 and 4-6 on the season and set them up for the Apple Cup with a dose of confidence.

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      Yes, it is possible that the Huskies can win in Corvallis for their first and only road win of the year.  It will take some luck and you know you can count on luck.  The Beavers offense, featuring the James Rodgers and his little brother Jacquizz, and ran by 5th year quarterback, Sean Canfield, is the best passing team in the conference.

     Canfield, completes almost 70% of his passes and half of them go to wide receiver James or running back, Jacquizz. Then throw in another big receiver and bunch of tight ends and you have a team that can run outside, inside, and throw quickly before you can sack them.  Washington will need to put some pressure on Canfield and hopefully keep hawking the ball. The Huskies have recovered 11 fumbles on the season and have actually created at least another half dozen. Although they only have 7 interceptions on the season, that is still one more than the Beavers have.

    I know I always keep hammering on turnovers and last week the Huskies still lost even though they caused 7 turnovers and recovered 5.  Oregon State has only lost 1 fumble in all 9 games.  I think if the Huskies can recover 2 fumbles in this game it will have a great impact in many ways including confidence and momentum. Rip the ball away from Quizz and recover it and then cause Canfield to fumble when he is hit from behind.

      That is what it is going to take to beat Oregon State in their house.  Washington needs to get some turnovers or maybe tip a ball while pressuring the quarterback and intercept it.  Something weird like returning a kickoff for a touchdown or scoring on defense. Then rely on the offense.

     That is the key to beating Oregon State, they will have to out score them.  Jake Locker has a shot at redemption for his one mistake last weekend and this would be a great time for him to have that signature performance.  One where he just takes over the game with his arm and his feet and carries his team to victory. Give a big dose carries to Chris Polk and mix it with all your receivers.  Move the chains by running for first downs. Jake needs to be the best player on the field with no mistakes and 3 touchdowns.

      If Washington can ball controll then they will have a lot better chance of pulling off this upset. That’s right, this UPSET.  Washington is the underdog again to Oregon State and has been for the 8th time in 9 games.  This is the same Oregon State that Washington just never lost to. Except one time in 1985, and I was there, and it wasn’t a lot of fun.  We owned the Beavers and the Ducks, Cougars and Bears for that matter. After that loss, marked by a blocked punt for a touchdown, we ran off 13 straight wins against the Beavs before I left the program in 1998. We just didn’t lose to Oregon State and now we can’t beat them, losing the last five in a row. These days we’re underdogs to the Beavers, is someone kidding me?

     It’s easy to appreciate what a great job coach Mike Riley has done with the Beavers.  He comes across as a really classy man and he is obviously one of the best coaches ever in the history of Beaver football.  He is already third on the list for most wins and is certain to become the all time winner in Corvallis. He has taken his team to 5 straight bowl games and won every one of them.  His team is 6-3 having lost to Cincinatti, Arizona, and USC, all really good ranked teams. They are already bowl eligible and are because they played Portland State and UNLV to start the season.

     If Washington’s offense can score in the 30′s or even 40′s, they will probably win the game. Washington’s offense should matchup well against the Beavers’ defense.

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 It is the other match-up that appears to be the hardest; Washington’s defense against Oregon State’s offense. They won’t stop the Beavers but if they could disrupt them with turnovers, sacks, and stop the outside runs then they will have a chance.  That and breaking even in the kicking game of course. No misses, be in field goals, extra points, or punts, or returns. Solid kicking game will be a must to winning on the road. Of course it would be great if the Huskies could get a block themselves or many that kick off return.

    I talked with a number of coaches and players after practice Wednesday and they sincerely believe they have a good shot at winning this game.  They expect to win and that gives them a chance. That is the biggest change in the Husky program from last year, they now expect to win. Last year they hoped to win.  Now they might fail, but so what? They can’t worry about that and instead are looking forward to winning their first on the road. I hope they do.

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    Oregon State hosts the Huskies this weekend and the Rodgers brothers, James and Jacquizz just might be the most exciting show in college football. They are two 5-7 dynamos who prove the little man has a definite place in college football.

    James leads the Pac-10 Conference in receiving, his brother is second. James also leads the conference in all purpose yardage, his brother is third. Quizz is also third in the conference in rushing and tied for 1st in touchdowns scored. He enters the Husky game with 989 yards so is certain to pass the 1000 barrier this weekend. He only has one fumble on the year and can run inside as well as outside and like his brother is lightening quick and difficult to tackle in open field. Wow! these two alone represent a long night for the Husky defense.

    The Beavers are better on the offensive side of the ball than they are on the defensive side so the Huskies are going to be pressed to keep up with them on the scoreboard. The Huskies should be able to run and throw against the Beavers and they should be prepared to play another game all the way to the finish only this time making the field goal to win it. If Washington wins it will probably be by a high score.

    The Beavers’ offense is really clicking and their left handed quarterback, Sean Canfield, is really accurate and especially on his short throws.  They use Quizz out of the backfield on flat routes, check downs, and on slip screens or delay dumps.  He is also the main running back and sort of hides behind his big linemen on the power play, stretch sweep plays, and zone reads.  They use James on fly sweeps when he is motioning across the formation and throw to him on a full array of short quick passes. Their offense is obviously built around the Rodgers brothers but they also have an excellent tall receiver an a huge tight end that will also challenge the Husky secondary.

     This could be a really difficult game if the Huskies leave their defense on the field too much. They would be best to attack Canfield and make him throw early. The Husky linebackers will need to always know where the Rodgers brothers are and be under control when they are in tackling position.  These kids are just electric in open field and they move their feet so fast that they can stop and start in an instant.  It is their acceleration that makes them so explosive and both are compact and not afraid to lower their shoulder for extra yards.

     The Beavers like to use two tight ends at the same time and that usually means a run.  They are big strong blockers and really have three kids rotating in. Washington will need crowd the line of scrimmage because of the run and also because the Beavers have so many short passes.

    Even though the Beavers have an excellent pass offense they have a pass defense that is even worse than Washingtons’. They have given up 16 touchdown passes and only have 10 sacks on the season while giving up 23. This is a team, that if they have an off night, then the Huskies could beat them.  The Dawgs will need a big day out of running back, Chris Polk, but if he out rushes Quizz then the Huskies have a great chance of winning. It will take a lot of luck but if they can just hang again then maybe this is the week they win a close one on the road. They’ve been getting closer and closer with each road game and maybe, just maybe, this will be the big win.

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