Coach Baird on Husky Football

Only 7 Pac-10 teams are in action this weekend and the match-up between USC and Oregon is easily the top billing. The first and second place teams colliding with the winner having the inside track to the conference championship.  Autzen Stadium will be packed to the gills and the evening crowd will be ready and well oiled by the kickoff. You can bet they will be loud, rude, and a factor especially when the Ducks are on defense.

   If there is any program in the conference that can win in a hostile enviornment it’s the Trojans. They are rolling now but meet a really balanced and efficient Duck team that will have the home crowd advantage and will be tough to beat.  Although I really want the Trojans to win, I think the Ducks will pull the upset and then will be upset themselves in one of their remaining 4 games. A loss by USC will give them 2 losses and then they would have to have the Ducks lose 3 of 4 and that’s probably not going to happen. I just think the Ducks are really playing well but would love to be wrong.

    The Cougars travel to San Antonio to take on Notre Dame and it probably doesn’t make any difference where they play they are probably going to get blown out.  If the Cougs can keep it close that would give them some confidence for their final 4 games. I can’t believe that if Charlie Weis can pour it on then he will pour it on.

   Cal visits ASU and I think the Bears are really getting it together. I can’t see the Sun Devil dfense stopping the Cal running attack and once the Bears get the lead then they will play well from the front and win with ease.

  That leaves UCLA @ Oregon State and Washington fans should probably root for the Bruins but I’m rooting against them because I don’t want them feeling good for their game next weekend with the Dogs. Better having them  with questioning themselves because they are actually pretty talented but are so undecided at quarterback that I can’t see them beating the Beavers or the Huskies for that matter. This is a match-up between the Huskies next two opponents so it is important from the scouting standpoint.

   Washington gets a bye as does Stanford and Arizona. Stanford has both Oregon and USC back to back after their bye and Arizona has WSU, @CAl, Oregon, @ASU, and finish with USC. Yikes!

   Hopefully Washington comes out of it’s bye refreshed, excited, and playing with the same resolve they have all year long. Winning any of their remaining games will be a thrill but winning three would be a real thrill.

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     The Huskies have this week off and they are using it for personnel development.  They are the last team in the conference to have a bye and they are putting a definite major emphasis on getting well.  Most of the first line players are simply resting after 8 straight weeks of grinding.  Although only 3 and 5, they are vastly improved and have taken 6 of the 8 games right down to the wire. Their conditioning has been sound and now fresh legs may just be the ticket for the remaining games.

  They are now facing a 4 game schedule of UCLA, Oregon State, WSU, and Cal and should they win 3 of the 4, they would a great chance at a bowl berth. All games are winnable and all will probably be tightly contested. The first two actually play eachother this weekend so the Dawgs will get a great look at both the Bruins and the Beavers. The Apple Cup will be played in Husky Stadium so I would imagine it will be the only one of  those games where the Huskies will be favored.

   In addition to getting healthy the other most important personnel issue this week is recruiting. There will be seven of the coaches out visiting high schools and watching games through out this weekend getting back for their first practice on Sunday.  With  20 commitments already for this years’ class, it is critical for the coaches to get out and solidify those intentions. Although the coaches can’t meet person to person with any recruit this time of year they are allowed to call and visit the high schools and go to games.

     Considering that the most important thing for the future of this program is getting better players, this class will have to be loaded for the Huskies to jump themselves into championship contention in the near future. There is nothing more important than getting more talent.

   Of the 20 commitments, 14 are listed on offense and only 6 on defense.  There are only 4 total linemen so getting about 3-4 more big guys would probably their priority.

   This week in practice they also moved some personnel with wide receiver Anthony Boyles moving to cornerback on defense and Alvin Logan moving up from safety to lineabacker.  Both looked comfortable in practice and it looks like it fits each of the players. Boyles is almost 6-3 and gives the Huskies a bigger cover guy to match up against other team’s big receivers.

    Practices this week were designed to give most of the repetitions to the back-ups and younger players. Most have already taken a look at UCLA but are being encouraged to get away and concentrate on their studies.

     Hopefully all of them will report back refreshed and ready to win all the remaining games on the schedule. Should they do that, it would be one of the greratest turnarounds in the history of college football. That’s worth playing for. That and a bowl game, a winning season, and alot of personal satisfaction.

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  With 8:13 to go in the first half the Oregon Ducks had only 40 total yards of offense and had stayed in the game simply because they had exploited the Huskies in the kicking game by blocking a punt for a touchdown and then taking advantage of the 10 men on the field and a baffled Husky defense on a two point play.

   Until that point in the game the Huskies were actually winning.  They had forced 2 three-and outs with their defense and had marched towards the Ducks goalline at least three times. Unfortunately, they had only come away with only 1 field goal.  Another untimely interception by Jake Locker just as the Huskies were going into score and a failed fourth down conversion later on squandered two scoring opportunities. Regardless, after a well played first half, it looked like the Huskies were in the ball game at 15-6.  Then the bottom all but fell out in the third period.

   Oregon scored 3 unanswered touchdowns and gained almost half of their game total of yards in the third quarter alone. Essentially, the game was over right there and then and the Ducks remained in first place and had extented their win streak over their cross border rival to 6 games in a row. They were real good in all phases of the game. Their offense took a little time to get going but then kicked in and cruised in the second half.  Their defense gave up almost 400 yards but got two interceptions and a fumble and the blocked punt in the kicking game was huge. 

    Oregon was clearly the better team and, as the game wore on, their better depth showed, especially in the second half.  Even though Oregon also has a first year coach, they do have a much more mature program than does Washington.  Their head coach has been there three years and their system is well entrenched.  Their coaches, most of whom have been there for at least ten years each, know their players and the players know their plays.

   The get-to-know-you period is still going on at Washington where the coaches are  trying to find out the “who” and the players are still trying to figure out the “what”. It is a long prossess but with regard to overall talent, I think they are still two more good recruiting classes from getting well.

    I think it takes at least three years to fully lay the foundation for a college football program. It takes that at least that long for all those people to even get to know eachother. Oregon knows themselves better and it showed with their use of the no-huddle and hurry up tempo that left the Huskies on their heels and not even in their stances some times.  It also showed in their substitutes and in their special teams that they were faster and more athletic.  That comes with consistant recruiting and continuity. Oregon has had that in their program and that is why they are a better football team.

  So now the Huskies have to forget the Ducks again for another year and concentrate on doing everything they can to win 3 more games. With only 4 games left to play, it means there is little margin for error. They play BYE this week and it couldn’t come at a better time.  (Well maybe before the Duck game would have been better). A week’s rest and a chance to get out and do some recruiting which is of course the answer to this whole mess.

   UCLA is up next and it looks like a possible win for the Huskies. Don’t even begin to mention the next ones because winning on the road at the Rose Bowl will be a thrill in itself. Washington needs to win a road game on grass and win it like all their other wins, in the last minute of the game. Steal one from Coach Rick.  That would be great.

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All 10 conference teams are in league and are playing each-other for the first time this season.  Usually someone has a bye, like WSU, OSU, and of course Oregon had last week. For beat up teams like the Cougars it was a blessing for others you can get out of sync by not playing.  The Ducks get back their quarterback, Jeremiah Masoli, and that changes the picture. They are a two back running team when he is playing and at about 5-11 and 230 he is really a like having a big back and a little back in the backfield.

I’m hoping that somehow, someway, the Huskies can just keep themselves in the game and then let Jake Locker win it at the end. I’m fully prepared for the drama of it because I don’t think they will blow out anyone. If they win, it will be a be turning point in the program.  They will get back to to even up at 4-4 and 3-2 in league. That puts them back in the race because the winner of the league may end up with two losses. I will always pick the Huskies but think they have a real shot if they can just keep it close going into the fourth quarter. Husky crowd will play a role in stopping the Duck win streak at five years. Home team advantage wins for Dawgs.

The Cougars travel into Bazerkly and take their shot at stopping Jahvid Best. They won’t and Cal will get well with its running game. This one could be close at least for the quarter but Cal should roll. I like the home team.

The Beavers go to LA and visit the Trojans and will play them tough but will lose a close one. Husky fans have to root for USC and Arizona because they have beaten them. I think USC is just getting better and better and would be surprised if they get beat at home.

ASU travels to Stanford and I like the home team here as well. I think Stanford has the better running back and the better quarterback and the better running game. Stanford hangs on and wins a close one.

Lastly UCLA travels to Arizona and I think they will surprise them for a while but Arizona will wear them down and win making it a clean sweep for all the home teams.

Right now Oregon is in the driver’s seat and they are set up well after the Husky game with three of five at home to end the season, including USC next week end. Hopefully they are looking ahead but Washington will still have to play it’s best game to win. They still have Jake Locker and  he is a difference maker.

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     Like everyone else, I watched the Oregon Ducks open the college season, on the road, and lost against a determined Boise State team and their home crowd, taped it, and rewatched it along with the Duck games vs. Utah, California, and UCLA.

   Oregon is in first place because they jumped on California and got a lead against a run team and the run team couldn’t get back in the game. Beating Cal 42-3 gave them great confidence and they draw WSU for their second game. The Cougars were decimated before the game and got rolled up 52-6. Oregon’s quarterback gets hurt and they go on the road to UCLA and had to score without their offense to win 24-10.  Trailing 0-3 at halftime, the Ducks returned the kickoff for a touchdown, then intercepted the first pass for a touch down and it was 14-3.  They then cause and recover a fumble and have a short field to score again and go up 21-3. They add a field goal and because UCLA squandered 2 scoring opportunities they Ducks win by only two 2 touchdowns or the 2 that started the second half.

   Washington will win this game if they do the following things;

     1. win the turnover battle by +3 (2 fumbles and 1 interception) Hopefully one of those for a touchdown. No fumbles or picks by Washington may win this game.

     2. Break even or win it in the kicking game by blocking a kick, returning a kick for a touchdown, and not giving up any returns to the Ducks. Be perfect in all specialties in kicking game be it punts or field goals or extra points as well as snaps, holds, and catching every kick.

     3. Run the football on offense but set it up off the passing game.

Jake Locker needs to run 10 times and about half of those should be called and give the ball to Chris Polk at least 20 times.  Throw in a key 3^rd and 1 to Paul Homer and maybe a reverse or two and you’re well into 30 plus rushing attempts. Then pound them with the run late in the game when you have a two score lead then hang on and win it at the wire. Kick another game field goal at the buzzer. Win it by 1.

    4. Quit making stupid penalties. No personal fouls, no off sides,

no face masks, no blocks in the back, and don’t get caught holding. Let the Ducks do all their strutting, and bobbing the head, and shaking the heads and crossing their arms for every incompletion or break-up. I promise you they will act that way.  Let them get the penalties and ignore their trash talk. Play clean tough hard hitting football.

   That’s it. That’s all they have to do and they will win this game because the Ducks are beatable.

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Arizona giveth and Arizona State taketh away. No question about it, the Huskies are an exciting team to watch.  They are improved, they are young and are only going to get better. They play hard, and they play right to the finish. Sometimes they win and sometimes they lose. I’d prefer the winning but understand the losing.  They’re better but they’re still not very good, especially on defense.

We must remember they are a very young team and are learning a new system. They have been right in every game and have always been playing older systems with more mature players. They have three great wins considering how good Idaho is and how highly ranked USC is.

The reality, though, is that this team is still one to two good recruiting classes from becoming an elite team again. Their win over USC earlier this season can’t be taken away from them but it was deceiving and lulled many in the fans base into believing they were back. They are in a sense, but there are still a number of missing pieces and many of them are up front on both sides of the ball.

The devastating loss to ASU on the last play of the gam eon Saturday was certainly in contrast to their exciting win over Arizona. The ASU game might have been the ugliest game I have ever watched. Both teams committed enough penalties to qualify this one as both a sloppy and a dirty game.

Washington lost the turnover battle and had 12 penalties for 124 yards and essentially lost the game right there.     

Forget for a second the last play of the game. On one nine-play drive  in the second quarter, the Sun Devils committed four personal fouls and the Huskies countered with two false starts and yet somehow found themselves inside the ASU 10, first and goal, only to throw an interception. ASU immediately drove right back the length of the field, aided by a Husky personal foul of course, only to fumble the ball out of the end zone for a touchback. It was simply bad football.

The passion of football is such an overwhelming emotional experience.  It runs the full scale from the euphoria of one week’s victory to the disappointment of the next week’s defeat.      

 Unfortunately, the disappointment can often turn into anger and there always seems to be a need to fix the blame.

 I was so impressed that Coach Sarkisian took it off the players and put it on himself. He is doing a masterful job with the talent he inherited and he continues to impress me with how forthright and honest he appears. He has his team playing hard and that is a tremendous improvement over the past.  The reality is they are still a developing program and aren’t good enough to continue to hurt themselves with penalties and turnovers.

 There is no question that the last plays of the games tend to be the ones that stay on your mind. I think, however, it’s best to look at the whole picture though rather than to dwell on just the ending. This game was lost at a number of times before the finish. The ifa, woulda, couldas, will not change the outcome.

It’s time to fix the problems and not the blame. I maintain the problems are in the level of talent caused by inconsistent recruiting.  To be playing teams this close is a tribute to coaching and that seems to be lost in the desire to instantly get better. Sure, there were coaching errors and those will be internally addressed.

I know these coaches will accept the challenge and now they know they have to pick these kids up and get them ready for the Ducks.

What we do know is that young skill players are really improving (Aguilar, Kearse, Long, Trufant and Johnson to name a few)  It’s also pretty obvious that Jake Locker may just be the real deal and just too good to keep.  It is just as obvious that the coaching has really improved this team but that added talent will improve it more.

So, here they are at 3-4 heading into the toughest game of the season facing the Oregon Ducks who are the hottest team in the league. Tall order.

I do know this, Coach Sarkisian and his coaches will have this team believing and anything is possible when you do that.  However, the Ducks are a mature program even if they are in the first year of coach Chip Kelly’s reign. They have the depth that Washington is missing.  They have had a week off and should be healthy. A win here will exceed the USC win and bring the Huskies back to .500 and keep their bowl hopes alive. There is a lot to play for and soon the sting of the devastating ASUdefeat will fade just as the thrill of the last win did.  That is the way of the game and no matter what happens, this program is getting better and will continue to do so.

Washington will be playing at home and that should help.  They have been in six out of seven games right down to the wire and, who knows, maybe they will find a way to win three of the next five, and maybe, just maybe, a win over the Ducks will be one of them.

How cool would that be? Other than the Cougars, the Oregon Ducks are the biggest rivalry for Washington.

There is a lot of deep rooted dislike between the two programs and I’m not sure it is still a healthy rivalry.  In fact, there are times when it has been downright ugly.

Considering how ugly this last game was makes me think this could be a perfect game for the Huskies.  Win it ugly, I don’t care, just as long as you win it. Afterall, it is the Ducks and this is duck- hunting season.

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Oregon, Oregon State, and WSU all have byes this week hoping to heal up for some big games to be played on the 24th of October.  The Ducks have stategically placed a bye before they play Washington next weekend and the Beavers have arranged their bye before they play USC.  That’s great scheduling on their part because both will get key players back for those big games.  The Cougars have Califonia that weekend and could use a double bye to get their ranks healthy. 

California plays at UCLA and that game is critical to both squads who each sit at 0-2 in conference play.  Considering that California was one of the early favorites to win the league this is huge for them and UCLA has dropped two in a row since opening with three straight wins.  So both teams are 3-2 and another loss essentially knocks them out of the hunt for the conference title.  Both have lost to Oregon but the Bruins only lost 24-10 after leading the Quackers 3-0 at half.  Cal got throttled by the Ducks 30-3 so one would think UCLA playing at home will be tough.  Both teams struggle at the all- important quarterback position so anything can happen, but Cal has Jahvid Best and he can win the game by himself. I think Cal rebounds here and wins on the road. At this point in the season it really doesn’t matter to Husky fans who wins this game.

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Here they go again, back on the road searching for their first road victory since 2007, trying to beat an ASU team at their place, on a surface called grass, at 90 degrees and again as the underdogs. The Washington Huskies have a shot here but only if they clean up their act.
No turnovers, less penalties, and an improved kicking game are all critical to pull this off.  Then they have to hang on with their defense and hope the offense can move the ball against the conference’s best defense. Simple formula for victory, isn’t it?
It is hard to get anything out of statistics simply because of the quality of schedules are so different.  Washington has played the hardest schedule in the nation with their opponents having a combined 22-5 record (not including their UW game)while ASU has their three wins against Idaho State, currently defeated, Louisiana-Monroe, and the WSU Cougars.
Turnovers is factor number one because ASU leads the conference in turnover margin with a plus-9 on the season including 11 interceptions. Washington has likewise thrived on turnovers returning 3 or TD’s in each of their last 3 games. They have only lost 4 fumbles and 4 interceptions and sit at +3 on the year.  If the Huskies can win the turnover battle by 3 they will win the game. (In their last game vs. WSU, ASU threw 3 picks and lost 3 fumbles)
Dennis Erickson’s teams at WSU, Miami, and Oregon State have always played loose and have been notorious for penalties.  ASU is right in step leading the conference in penalties averaging 9 for over 80 yards per game.  If Washington can only commit 2-3 penalties on the night they will gain a whole lot of field position.  (especially eliminate any personal fouls.)
To start the second half against Arizona, the Huskies’ kicking game went south allowing a 50 yard kickoff return, dropping a punt inside their own 20, shanking the next punt, then dropping a kickoff. That can’t happen and ASU has an excellent punt returner so they need to cover really well.
The Husky defense should be solid against the run because it is so basic.  The Sun Devils will be mostly in gun with one back to the side of the quarterback.  They like to run the stretch sweep play to the opposite side of the back and will pull as many as two linemen including their center. They run the zone cutback play where the back reads for a hole and the linemen all double team zone block in the same direction. Then they will run bootleg off of each and quick throw to 3 and 4 wide receivers. They will mix in a reverse, screens and also the bubble quick screen that Washington had so much trouble with last weekend. Stop those 4 things and they win the game.
Their defense shows 4-3-4 but will play lots of man on the wide receivers and blitz or play zone up the middle.  Oregon State and Georgia had success with their balanced attack and Locker is a better quarterback than either of those two teams. He makes it hard for teams to blitz because he is so quick and if you miss him with the stunt he is out the gate and gone. He will need to have a big game and if he does Washington will get their first road win.

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For years Dennis Erickson’s teams have been known for their offenses and most of the time that meant a one-back attack that featured the zone and counter running plays and, of course, a wide-open passing attack with the quarterback under center.
This year Arizona State has gone to the shotgun spread but they continue to run the zone play in which the lone back literally picks his hole and the offensive line all block in the same direction using double teams against the defensive line.
That is not all that has changed this year because the Sun Devils are currently featuring a dominating defense. ASU leads the Pac-10 in just about every major defensive statistical category. They do so because they attack the quarterback with a variety of blitzes and play a lot of man-to-man in the secondary.
Last weekend ASU sacked the WSU Cougars 12 times, intercepted two passes and recovered two fumbles.  Along the way the held WSU to minus 57 yards rushing and 181 total yards on 66 plays.  Now considering the Cougars got 99 of that on one pass play that means WSU’s offense gained only 87 yards on 65 plays. Wow!
On Saturday in Tempe, the Sun Devils will, no doubt, challenge the Huskies offensive line and their ability to protect Jake Locker, who leads the conference in passing. Now, obviously Jake is a lot more mobile than most of the quarterbacks ASU has faced in their 3-2 start to the season.
ASU has arguable played the weakest schedule in the league to date, beating not only a youthful Cougar team but also hapless Idaho State, 50-3 (not to be mistaken for either Boise State or the University of Idaho, which at 5-1 has only lost to Washington). ASU also beat Louisiana-Monroe 38-14 so its three wins have come against teams that have won a total of two games. They have lost to Georgia and Oregon State but their defense has still been stellar.
Their defense has been suffocating against every team they have played, The Sun Devils lead the conference in turnovers with 11 interceptions and five fumbles. It will be the toughest defense Jake Locker has played so far and the Huskies’ protection schemes will surely be tested.
On the back end of its defense, ASU likes to play quarters — or a combination man/zone — with all defensive backs playing one-quarter of the field and then locking up with the man who threatens their zone the most.  The Devils have really good athletes in the secondary and are not afraid to go man-to- man with anyone’s receivers. It will be an added challenge for the Husky receivers to avoid jams and get enough separation to get open.
I can’t imagine that Locker will not take some shots downfield against this sort of defense. Look for screens and draws as another way of attacking this sort of pressure defense.
ASU is basically a 4-3-4 defense and often crowd the line of scrimmage with eight-nine players so the Huskies need account for all of them.
Additionally, playing at home will give the Sun Devil defenders the benefit of their crowd and their natural turf that Washington doesn’t even have a practice field of to work out on. It’s called grass and it doesn’t exist at Montlake.
When you have a match-up between a good offense and a good defense the game is most likely to be decided by either ASU’s offense or Washington’s defense. That and the kicking game, of course.  Last weekend’s collapse in the kicking game almost took the Huskies out of the game against Arizona.
The Huskies’ punter dropped a snap inside his own 10, then shanked the next punt. This after they gave up a 50-yard kick off return and then dropped a kickoff. They can ill afford not to be solid in the kicking game because ASU also has the best punter in the conference as well as an excellent return game.
Arizona State’s defense features a couple of pretty good linebackers.  Senior Mike Nixon has been joined by freshman sensation Vontaz Burfit, who at 6-3 and 240 pounds, is already being considered a pro prospect. He will be wearing number No. 7 and is really a great looking player. Washington will have it’s hands full when they are on offense beating this defense.
Protecting the football will be paramount again and if Washington can not turn the ball over they will most likely get its first road win in almost three years. Last weekend they only had one turnover and that was on a pass that went right through the hands of the Husky receiver before being intercepted. Then when they intercepted two themselves at the end of the game, they won. Turnovers decide football games and if Washington has none it will probably win.

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Playing at home should be an advantage and that will be the determiner in a Husky win. The very structure of Husky Stadium makes it one of the loudest stadiums in America.  The two upper decks serve as an amplifier and it works for the home team.
Husky Stadium gives Washington the advantage over Arizona and it will win a close one because of it.
Martin Stadium in Pullman, however, is a rather neutral place for visitors simply because there are usually less than 30,000 fans and besides, ASU’s coach, Dennis Erickson, is more than familiar with it having coached there himself. The Sun Devils are stronger on defense than the Cougars are and will likely win a close one because of it.  This would be a great place for a major upset by the Cougars but unfortunately they are still short on quality players.
Both of the Washington teams are playing way too many freshmen and that is never a good thing.  Coach James always had a great quote, “that the best time to play a freshman was when he was a junior.”  One of the problems with turning over coaches is the negative impact it has on recruiting. Both Washington schools are still a couple of recruiting classes away from having quality depth.
USC and California both have the week off after playing each other last week.  It may hurt the Trojans more because they are running hot right now.  The Bears can really use a break after dropping two in a row to the Trojans and the Ducks.
The Ducks travel to the Rose Bowl to play UCLA and are without their starting quarterback. Husky fans should be rooting for the Bruins and Slick Rick because Oregon needs a loss in league. The Bruins always have great talent and are capable of holding home court. I want the Bruins to win a close one.
That leaves the first place team, Stanford, traveling to Corvallis to take on the Beavers.  I like the Cardinal to win here in a battle of running teams. It will definitely be a k nock down drag out affair but Stanford is in the driver’s seat and should win a close one.
Washington needs Stanford to lose twice and you have to think that way in order to win the league. I know just winning a game should be the goal but ultimately you want to keep yourself in the hunt for the league title. So, I’m a Beaver fan this week and hope they can pull it off, but I don’t think so. Stanford is just too physical.
I want the Huskies, Cougars, Bruins, and Beavers to win but I’ll take just the Huskies.

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