Coach Baird on Husky Football

   Most of the Pac-10 is down to only 2 games left on the season and the Rose Bowl is still up for grabs. Washington and USC both have the weekend off and both are coming off of divestating losses that have soured their seasons. Washington was drubbed by Oregon State 48-21, and the Trojans were humiliated by Stanford 55-21.  The Huskies and the Trojans both play their respective rivals, WSU and UCLA, the next weekend. Both should get well doing so.

    This weekend the Cougars host Oregon State and the way the Beavers are playing right now I’d be surprised if they don’t put up 50 on the Cougars.  They have simply too much speed and strength for the Cougs to match and they are still in the title hunt if they can win out. I think they have an excellent chance of beating both the Cougs and the Ducks to end their season.

     The Oregon Ducks take their 6-1 conference leading record into Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona got stunned by Cal last weekend and I think the Ducks will finish off any hope of this being the Wildcats’ first Rose Bowl ever. Oregon rolled up ASU last weekend and should win this one even if they are on the road.  A win here coupled with a Beaver win over WSU and the Rose Bowl could be decided in the annual Civil War played this year in Eugene on December 3rd.

   ASU travels to the Rose Bowl to play UCLA with slim hopes for a post season bowl.  The Sun Devils sit tied with the Huskies at 2-5 in league and UCLA is coming off successive wins over the Washington schools. A win here makes the Bruins bowl eligible and they probably have the talent to get it done. These are two teams that the Huskies could have and should have beaten but they going in opposite directions so UCLA looks like the winner.

   That leaves the Big Game being played in Palo Alto between Stanford and Cal.  With a 6-2 record, the Cardinal have a chance to win a part of the conference championship if they can beat the Bears and considering Cal is probably without Jahvid Best they will probably do so.  A decisive win by Stanford would leave them with only Notre Dame left to play. Should the Ducks lose to Arizona or Oregon State and Stanford beats Cal then the Cardinal could get a piece of the title as well.

    However, if Arizona were to beat the Ducks, then they would still have to beat ASU and USC in LA to win the title. If they indeed run the table then the roses are theirs. I think they will be hard pressed to do so.  It is possible that Oregon, Oregon State, and Stanford could all end up with 7-2 records.  Stanford lost to the Beavers but beat the Ducks.  If the Beavers win out then they will go having beaten both the Cardinal and the Ducks.  That is why there is little or no chance of them losing in Pullman.

    Whatever, we can almost be assured that with 3 losses, the USC Trojans are not going to be repeating as Pac-10 champions. Had they not lost to upstart Washington earlier this year this would be an entirely different ending.

   The conference race is going right down to the wire and the Arizona/Oregon game is going to play a major role in determining the final champion. That is the biggest game on the schedule this weekend and I like the Ducks to get it done.

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    The answer to the Huskies resurgence is obviously in getting better players. After going thru 4 sets of coaches in the last 10 years, it’s about time to realize it might not be the coaching, it just might be the players and the only way to improve personnel is thru recruiting. Coaches are responsible for recruiting, however, and because of the constant turnover in coaching, the recruiting has had no continuity to it.

    Unfortunately, for both the UW and WSU, it’s the same situation.  Continuous turnovers in coaching have driven both teams from the top of the conference to the bottom.  Coach Sarkisian uses the phrase, “It’s not X’s and O’s, it’s Jimmys and Joes”.

    That is the reality of college coaching and that has been the priority since Sarkisian was named coach last December. His first hire was Johnny Nansen, his special teams coach and recruiting coordinator.  Nansen actually hit the road recruiting in California before even coming to Seattle.  He and Sark and his staff immediately went out and signed 19 kids by the first of February and were off and running on this coming year’s class which now sits at 23 commitments.  That’s 42 kids in less than 1 year and whereas 3 never made it into school and another got dismissed, that still leaves 38 new Huskies.

    Of course, the 23 from this year are only verbal commitments, and none are final until they actually sign a national letter of intent the first Wednesday in February. Still, the 23 represent a major overhaul of the program and considering you only get 85 total kids on scholarship, it also represents over 1/4th of your roster.

    Of the 23 committed new Huskies, 13 are from California, 8 are from Washington, and 1 each from Oregon and Hawaii. The NCAA allows a maximum of 25 signees each year but you don’t have to count them until they actually enroll in college and begin practices in August.

     The Huskies will be practicing Mon-Wed. this week and then 7 of the coaches (per NCAA limits) will hit the road again for evaluation and recruiting.  They are probably close to being done for this year because they already have way more commitments than they have openings on the 85 man squad.  They only have about a dozen spots opening from a very small senior class, so some kids currently on rides will not be invited back.

    College scholarships are really only 1-year renewable contracts but most colleges honor them as automatic rollovers.  There have already been a couple of kids decide they are not returning for next year and there will certainly be more attrition. Developing your roster is a constant process and there are always comings and goings, so you have to be constantly aware of both your total numbers (85) but also your yearly quota (25).

    I think the Huskies will end up with a full 25 signees and figure that some will not be eligible for enrollment and end up going to JC’s or “greyshirting” which means they will not enroll in the fall of next year but will wait and enroll in January for winter quarter.  These will be counted forward on the next year’s numbers.

    Whatever, recruiting is the answer to getting better and for both of the Washington schools to become more competitive. Washington needs to address their shortages in the lines  and will probably only be adding players in those positions, if they add any at all.  Technically the Huskies are probably already full but you always take top level kids if they want to come and simply make room for them.

    In recruiting, having balance is critical in every class.  That way you always have depth in each position on the team.  That has really hurt Washington this year because previous classes ignored the line areas. At this point the Dawgs have 4 offensive linemen committed and only 3 defensive linemen with only 1 being an inside or defensive tackle. Considering football games are still won up front, you can bet they are still pursuing more big bodies.

     This is still only an evaluation period and that restricts the coaches from any person contact with kids even if they are already committed.  They are likewise still restricted to 1 phone call or text message per week but are allowed to visit high schools, attend games, and talk with coaches and counselors. (”Evaluation” period)

    The “contact’ period begins in December and then coaches may see a recruit once per week and have unlimited calls.  Of course, prospects can always call them and there will be a number visiting for the WSU game in two weeks.  Prospects may go to any of your home games and I would imagine Washington will have a number present to watch them play the Cougars.

    Right now the Huskies need to hang onto the kids they already have committed as other schools, like Oregon, never honor commitments especially if they are to lower tier schools like the Washington teams. You always lose a kid or two coming down the stretch and it’s never over until signing date in February.

    Consequently, the coaches will be out working hard to hold on to those they’ve already got, hopefully adding another uncommitted top flight kid, and researching all the underclassmen to get a jump start on the class of 2011.  I have always found that the schools that do not go to bowl games usually have better than average recruiting classes simply because they can offer playing time and a bigger need.  This has not necessarily been the case with either the Huskies or the Cougars. Both have been desperate and therefore have taken kids that would not otherwise have been offered.

     It is the quality of your depth that often determines the outcome of your season.  This year was a good example because as soon as the Huskies began having injuries, their level of depth was exposed and they started losing again.

     The energy and excitement of Coach Sarkisian and his staff have given recruits hope that things are changing and that the future is brighter than the present. They will be involved in the turnaround and they have an excellent chance at being an intregal part of it.  It’s all about hope when you’re losing.  You have to be selling the hope for change and being part of the process.

    Washington is still in Seattle and it has always been the premier college in the entire Pacific Northwest.  Selling kids on coming to a rebuilding process is the toughest part of the sell.  So far Coach Sarkisian and his staff have been succeeding in their sales and now it’s just a matter of getting their signatures on the dotted line come February.

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   The Oregon State Beavers officially put a fork into the Huskies’ season and any chance for a bowl game when they throughly defeated the Dogs Saturday night in Corvallis.  The Huskies flopped almost from the first play when Jake Locker threw an interception. It was followed shortly thereafter with a 7 yard punt and the Beaver dam burst any chances of a post season bowl game for a Husky team that really needs one.

    Bowl games help you build your team.  They are a bonus opportunity to work on fundamentals and to develop your underclassmen. You need a winning record to earn the opportunity and when you play every other team in a tough conference it only leaves 3 out-of-league games.  If you play really tough teams, like an LSU or Notre Dame, then you hurt your mathematical chances for a winning record.  Washington had goal set to get into a bowl but they had over scheduled for money considerations and now after being hammered by the Beavers need to reset their goals for these last two games.

    It has now been 7 years and three coaches since Washington last went bowling for the holidays and that has directly impacted the development of the Husky team.  Going to a bowl rewards you with 15 extra days of practice and those are just as important as the 15 you get for spring drills.  It means that the Huskies have now lost 105 practices they would otherwise have had and that is the equivilent of a whole season of practices. 

     This is one of the obvious negatives of the bowl system.  The teams that need to practice the most don’t get those extra practices so the rich just get richer.  Considering there are close to 35 bowls right now, it means 70 of the 120 bowl div ision teams get to work their teams for 3 more weeks and the teams that need the work the most get nothing.

    The obvious solution would be to allow all division one teams to hold 15 winter or post season practices to be held in December or January regardless if you go to a bowl game or not.  They essentially do that in basketball with the NIT and other post season tounaments that allow over a 110 teams to continue to play.

    College football is so married to their bowl system they don’t even realize how it negatively it impacts their lower teams much less eliminating any chance for a playoff to crown a true national champion. I have to believe that sooner or later they will realize the tremendous amount of money they are leaving on the table and go ahead and incorporate the bowl games into some kind of a playoff.

    During the bowl pactices we always spent extra time with the younger players.  We often tried kids in different positions to further help the team, and for guys like Jerremy Stevens, who went from quarterback to tight end, it meant millions of dollars for him. During the season you are so tuned in to preparing for the next opponent that you don’t spend any time developing your younger players.

    The Beaver’s dismantling of the Huskies was understandable simply because they are a better overall football team and have the quality depth that Washington doesn’t have. They had also been to 5 straight bowl games so had practiced 75 more times.

     It will probably take two full recruiting classes for Washington to reach the point of parody with regard to depth. The Huskies haven’t even spent a full year under their current system and that really showed in the lines.  The Huskies are still getting manhandled at times up front and that was obvious from the first snap when the Beaver defensive line literally pushed right thru the Husky offensive front.

    Jake Locker had defensive linemen in his face all Saturday night and the Beavers recorded 4 sacks besides hitting Jake at least a half of dozen other times. The offense never got untracked and actually had 5-6, “3 and outs” or failed to get a first down on all those tries. Considering how out-manned Washington has been up-front, it’s a wonder they haven’t been rolled up earlier this season.  With the exception of Oregon and Stanford, Washington had played everyone tough including Notre Dame, ASU, and UCLA, all teams the Huskies lost to on the road and in the last minute of the game.

     Now the Huskies have 2 weeks to prepare for the WSU Cougars who will host the same Beaver team this coming weekend.  Oregon State is still in the hunt for the Rose Bowl and should they beat both the Cougars and the Ducks, they might earn a tie for the confereence championship.  With that sort of incentive they almost certainly will demolish the Cougars to set up a Civil War that might be for all the marbles.

      Meanwhile the Huskies have two games left on a schedule that is going nowhere but into the furture.  They are a lot better team than they showed in Corvallis and have really improved as a team since last spring.  A strong finish will set them up for a great off-season of hard work. Beating the Cougars is never easy simply because it is such a rivalry game.

     Having played for the Cougars myself, I can only say that beating the Huskies is the most important thing in a Cougar’s lifetime.  Last year was a classic example because WSU was simply one of the worst teams I’d ever seen in this conference but somehow they found a way to beat the Huskies.  Of course, the Huskies were the worst team in the history of their school.  They had given early indications this year that they had shed those negative ways only to have slid into this last losing streak where they have dropped six out of the last seven.

    Coach Sarkisian now has two weeks to refresh his team and hopefully gets back some key players.

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    The winner of the Pac-10 conference is probably going to have 2 losses and it could end up being a 2 way tie.  Right now the Oregon Ducks are still on top with a 5-1 record and are followed by Arizona at 4-1, and Stanford at 5-2, with USC and Oregon State both lurking at 4-2. Essentially, half the conference; Cal, ASU,Washington, Ucla, and WSU are already eliminated from championship consideration.

   Arizona finishes with Cal this week, and then has Oregon, ASU, and USC, so 3 teams at the top of the conference all play eachother. The game next week in Tempe between Arizona and Oregon will probably decide the conference title and Rose Bowl invitation. An upset this weekend though is going to happen somewhere in the conference.

     With Stanford playing at USC, one of those two will likewise be eliminated and in spite of their brilliant win over Oregon, the Cardinal are going to be hard pressed to win in LA. USC has the best scoring defense in the conference giving up only 18points a game and a low scoring affair probably would favor the Trojans. The Stanford Cardinal only have this game and their Big Game against Cal left in league so this is a huge game for them.  USC is favored to win by 10 but I don’t think so.  Stanford is really a good football team  and I think they will follow up their win over Oregon by knocking off the Trojans in a close one on the road. Stanford can simply run the football and their young quarterback, Andrew Luck, is developing into one of the best in the conference.  A Trojan loss here would be their third in league and would eliminate them from another consecutive championship. Road win for Stanford.

    Arizona visits Cal and the Bears won’t be at their Best because the lost their Best player in Jahvid Best, arguably one of the Best backs in the country. I think Arizona is rolling right now and will keep it going with a win over the broken Bears. Road win for Wildcats.

    UCLA travels to Pullman and although a 20 point favorite will not win by that much.  They will beat the Cougars but will struggle doing so for about a half and then win going away in the fourth quarter. There could be less than 20,000 fans for this one as the lowly Cougars are limping to the finish.  They will battle hard for a while then break down in the kicking game again and UCLA will put them away. Road win for Bruins.

     The Oregon Ducks host ASU and will get back on track with a solid win in Eugene. The Ducks were exposed by Stanford but will no doubt rebound with a big win at home.  ASU is still having QB problems and has had the whole year and playing on the road won’t help them here as they are catching the Ducks at a bad time. This one could get real ugly with the Ducks scoring in the 40’s or 50’s. Who knows? the Sun Devil defense could hold tough for a while, but I don’t think so. Ducks only home team to win this weekend.

   That leaves the Huskies at Oregon State in the battle of opposites.  The Beavers are 6-3 and 4-2 in league and the Huskies are 3-6 and 2-4.  With the Huskies, Cougars and Ducks left to play, you can bet the Beavers think they can run the table. They look faster on tape than Washington, they are a more mature program that has been to 5 straight bowls and they have quality depth. Stopping their offense won’t be easy but slowing it down is certainly possible.

    Winning this sort of game in this sort of season takes a lot of things falling into place.  Especially when you are playing on the road, you need the ball to bounce your way. Sure tackling will be at a premium because the Rodgers brothers aren’t just fast, they’re also quick.  They will make you miss so wrapping up becomes extra important. Washington needs to keep ripping at the ball just as they have done all year long. So what if the Beavers have only lost one fumble, make them fumble twice.

  They need to put some pressure on Canfield and that might mean bringing more blitzes and stunts with linebackers and defensive backs. Other teams have had success making Canfield throw early or challenging him to run. He will but is not very quick so rarely does. They have given up 23 sacks this year and I am certain the Huskies have looked at just how other teams like USC and Arizona got it done.

    The Huskies have a chance if their offense explodes and plays it’s best game of the season.  That is probably what it is going to take to win this game. Washington’s offense needs to score at least 5 touchdowns and they could also use one from the defense or kicking game. I always believe the Huskies will win the game so I will always pick them and don’t care if I’m right or not. That said, Huskies win the game by one with a field goal at the buzzer. That would take them to 3-4 and 4-6 on the season and set them up for the Apple Cup with a dose of confidence.

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      Yes, it is possible that the Huskies can win in Corvallis for their first and only road win of the year.  It will take some luck and you know you can count on luck.  The Beavers offense, featuring the James Rodgers and his little brother Jacquizz, and ran by 5th year quarterback, Sean Canfield, is the best passing team in the conference.

     Canfield, completes almost 70% of his passes and half of them go to wide receiver James or running back, Jacquizz. Then throw in another big receiver and bunch of tight ends and you have a team that can run outside, inside, and throw quickly before you can sack them.  Washington will need to put some pressure on Canfield and hopefully keep hawking the ball. The Huskies have recovered 11 fumbles on the season and have actually created at least another half dozen. Although they only have 7 interceptions on the season, that is still one more than the Beavers have.

    I know I always keep hammering on turnovers and last week the Huskies still lost even though they caused 7 turnovers and recovered 5.  Oregon State has only lost 1 fumble in all 9 games.  I think if the Huskies can recover 2 fumbles in this game it will have a great impact in many ways including confidence and momentum. Rip the ball away from Quizz and recover it and then cause Canfield to fumble when he is hit from behind.

      That is what it is going to take to beat Oregon State in their house.  Washington needs to get some turnovers or maybe tip a ball while pressuring the quarterback and intercept it.  Something weird like returning a kickoff for a touchdown or scoring on defense. Then rely on the offense.

     That is the key to beating Oregon State, they will have to out score them.  Jake Locker has a shot at redemption for his one mistake last weekend and this would be a great time for him to have that signature performance.  One where he just takes over the game with his arm and his feet and carries his team to victory. Give a big dose carries to Chris Polk and mix it with all your receivers.  Move the chains by running for first downs. Jake needs to be the best player on the field with no mistakes and 3 touchdowns.

      If Washington can ball controll then they will have a lot better chance of pulling off this upset. That’s right, this UPSET.  Washington is the underdog again to Oregon State and has been for the 8th time in 9 games.  This is the same Oregon State that Washington just never lost to. Except one time in 1985, and I was there, and it wasn’t a lot of fun.  We owned the Beavers and the Ducks, Cougars and Bears for that matter. After that loss, marked by a blocked punt for a touchdown, we ran off 13 straight wins against the Beavs before I left the program in 1998. We just didn’t lose to Oregon State and now we can’t beat them, losing the last five in a row. These days we’re underdogs to the Beavers, is someone kidding me?

     It’s easy to appreciate what a great job coach Mike Riley has done with the Beavers.  He comes across as a really classy man and he is obviously one of the best coaches ever in the history of Beaver football.  He is already third on the list for most wins and is certain to become the all time winner in Corvallis. He has taken his team to 5 straight bowl games and won every one of them.  His team is 6-3 having lost to Cincinatti, Arizona, and USC, all really good ranked teams. They are already bowl eligible and are because they played Portland State and UNLV to start the season.

     If Washington’s offense can score in the 30’s or even 40’s, they will probably win the game. Washington’s offense should matchup well against the Beavers’ defense.

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 It is the other match-up that appears to be the hardest; Washington’s defense against Oregon State’s offense. They won’t stop the Beavers but if they could disrupt them with turnovers, sacks, and stop the outside runs then they will have a chance.  That and breaking even in the kicking game of course. No misses, be in field goals, extra points, or punts, or returns. Solid kicking game will be a must to winning on the road. Of course it would be great if the Huskies could get a block themselves or many that kick off return.

    I talked with a number of coaches and players after practice Wednesday and they sincerely believe they have a good shot at winning this game.  They expect to win and that gives them a chance. That is the biggest change in the Husky program from last year, they now expect to win. Last year they hoped to win.  Now they might fail, but so what? They can’t worry about that and instead are looking forward to winning their first on the road. I hope they do.

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    Oregon State hosts the Huskies this weekend and the Rodgers brothers, James and Jacquizz just might be the most exciting show in college football. They are two 5-7 dynamos who prove the little man has a definite place in college football.

    James leads the Pac-10 Conference in receiving, his brother is second. James also leads the conference in all purpose yardage, his brother is third. Quizz is also third in the conference in rushing and tied for 1st in touchdowns scored. He enters the Husky game with 989 yards so is certain to pass the 1000 barrier this weekend. He only has one fumble on the year and can run inside as well as outside and like his brother is lightening quick and difficult to tackle in open field. Wow! these two alone represent a long night for the Husky defense.

    The Beavers are better on the offensive side of the ball than they are on the defensive side so the Huskies are going to be pressed to keep up with them on the scoreboard. The Huskies should be able to run and throw against the Beavers and they should be prepared to play another game all the way to the finish only this time making the field goal to win it. If Washington wins it will probably be by a high score.

    The Beavers’ offense is really clicking and their left handed quarterback, Sean Canfield, is really accurate and especially on his short throws.  They use Quizz out of the backfield on flat routes, check downs, and on slip screens or delay dumps.  He is also the main running back and sort of hides behind his big linemen on the power play, stretch sweep plays, and zone reads.  They use James on fly sweeps when he is motioning across the formation and throw to him on a full array of short quick passes. Their offense is obviously built around the Rodgers brothers but they also have an excellent tall receiver an a huge tight end that will also challenge the Husky secondary.

     This could be a really difficult game if the Huskies leave their defense on the field too much. They would be best to attack Canfield and make him throw early. The Husky linebackers will need to always know where the Rodgers brothers are and be under control when they are in tackling position.  These kids are just electric in open field and they move their feet so fast that they can stop and start in an instant.  It is their acceleration that makes them so explosive and both are compact and not afraid to lower their shoulder for extra yards.

     The Beavers like to use two tight ends at the same time and that usually means a run.  They are big strong blockers and really have three kids rotating in. Washington will need crowd the line of scrimmage because of the run and also because the Beavers have so many short passes.

    Even though the Beavers have an excellent pass offense they have a pass defense that is even worse than Washingtons’. They have given up 16 touchdown passes and only have 10 sacks on the season while giving up 23. This is a team, that if they have an off night, then the Huskies could beat them.  The Dawgs will need a big day out of running back, Chris Polk, but if he out rushes Quizz then the Huskies have a great chance of winning. It will take a lot of luck but if they can just hang again then maybe this is the week they win a close one on the road. They’ve been getting closer and closer with each road game and maybe, just maybe, this will be the big win.

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     Washington did just about everything they could to win a road game only to lose by 1 point to the UCLA Bruins, 24-23. A missed field goal in the fourth quarter and an interception as they were driving for another ended any hope of getting that all elusive road victory.

    Regardless, Washington is a much better team than they have been in many many years but it is just sad they couldn’t close the deal. They have improved in almost every phase of the game and even added a kickoff returner to the mix. They just needed to get 2 more points here and a break or two aganst Notre Dame and ASU and they could easily be 6-3 and bowl eligible right now. That steady improvement is what you can take away from a season that has all of a sudden turned south.

   It is so easy to second guess with the ifa, woulda, coulda, shouldas but the reality is this is a much improved and harder working team than has been wearing the purple and gold for at least the last 7 years.

   They are the same kids in the same confefrence with the same tough schedule that we suffered along with all last year.  They are in better condition, are competing better, they are hitting better, and they are trying harder.  Those are all good things and great indicators that Coach Steve Sakisian and his staff are indeed changing the culture of the program. These kids now know how to play a whole game and fight to the very end. That is progress.

     If Jake Locker comes back to go with Chris Polk and all those receivers then the offense will continue to only improve in a system that isn’t even 1 year old yet. Defensively, they are undermanned to begin with and a few key injuries has only made it more difficult.  Still they forced 7 turnovers getting 5, ran the ball effectively, stopped the run, and had they not missed a 38 yard field goal would probably have beaten a team that had better talent.

     They got a great effort out of many of their few seniors and none more so than Don Butler, their captain and middle linebacker.  He had 13 solo tackles, a forced fumble, and 2 tackles for loss. He has been solid all season and is determined to lead this program back to respectability. If they can keep playing this hard then that is a great tribute to Don and Daniel Teo Nesheim, who has been the lead by example guy up front.

    Butler’s hit on the Bruin quarterback was my favorite play of the whole game.  He lowered the boom on Kevin Prince because Prince was trying to advance the ball by diving froward.  It was a good hard hit and I would have praised him for it. He had no intentions of hurting the kid and if hadn’t been their quarterback they would never have called it. Had it been the tailback, nobody would have throw a flag. That’s not right and that was a bad call.

    It did however, make a statement about the change in Husky football. They are getting tougher and they are working harder and they believe they can play with anyone.  That mental change in itself is the greatest thing to take out of the 3-6 season so far.  These kids are thinking better.  They expect to win and they have garnered the respect of everyone of their opponents and that what it’s all about, that and winning of course.

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 For only the second time this season all Pac-10 teams are matched up and the Oregon Ducks are again involved in the key game.  This time they travel to Palo Alto to take on the Stanford Cardinal.  Because of its running game, Stanford has one of the best shots at knocking the Ducks off their perch at the top of the conference.

 Stanford sits at 3^rd in the Pac-10 with a 4-2 league record and at 5-3 on the season are in a great place to earn a bowl. In this game they are still playing for the league title because if they beat Oregon they only need either Arizona or the Beavers to do likewise.

 Oregon just might be the best team in the conference and the only way to stop its offense is to keep it on the sidelines.  Teams that can run the ball consistently have the best chance of doing that. Having watched both teams in person, I think Stanford can match them physically and they are very sound in their kicking game. It would not surprise me to see the Cardinal win here because they are at home and there is the chance that Oregon could go flat after their big win over USC.

 Arizona sits in second place in the conference at 3-1, having only lost to Washington.  They host the Cougars and will put up 50 if they can because that is the kind of coach Mike Stoops is.  They probably will cruise and beat the Cougars by 30 or 40.

 The Trojans should bounce back and beat Dennis Erickson’s ASU Sun Devils even though it is in Tempe.  This may mark the end of the line for the ASU quarterback, Danny Sullivan, whose last-minute pass beat Washington.  ASU just hurts themselves too much on penalties and turnovers to beat a team like USC who has something to prove this weekend.  That is probably why they are 14-point favorites on the road.

Cal hosts the Beavers of Oregon State and that is a great match-up of tailbacks in the Beavs’ Jacquizz Rodgers and the Bears’ Jahvid Best. These two teams are really evenly matched in nearly all position areas. It will probably be high scoring and the home field should favor the Bears. After losing their opening conference games to Oregon and USC, the Bears have been playing really well and should beat the Beavers by a touchdown.

 That leaves the Huskies visiting the UCLA Bruins and of course I like the Huskies to end their road miseries. Send the Bruins deeper into their spiral of losing and set themselves up for a run at a bowl game. Who knows? This could be a turning point in the program. Go Dawgs.

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    Jake Locker is going to play and he will play well and the Huskies are going to win their first road game in years.  That is the key to the game.  Now of course no drops will help, and no missed tackles will help, and no missed scoring opportunities will help, and not fumbling or throwing interceptions will help.  Other than that Jake Locker will be the difference and the Huskies will win by 4 points. If not, so what.

     Seriously, if the Huskies can just not hurt themsleves, they stand an excellent chance to defeat the Rick Neuheisel coached UCLA Bruins.  It’s liable to be another back and forth struggle with field position being critical and long drives necessary.

     Defensively, this is going to be really interesting because I think you may see as many as 5 freshmen playing at the same time for the Dawgs. One the backend or secondary alone there are 3 freshmen starters in corners, Desmont Trufant and Adam Long, and safety, Nate Fellner.  Then they are also working defensive ends Andru Pulu from Federal Way and Talia Crichton with the starters as well.

    That is a lot of youth in one unit and they will make some rookie mistakes but the reality is, defensive coordinator Nick Holt, is playing who he has.  A neck injury to Cameron Elisara as well as a few dings to some other players has let the Huskies short handed in the defenisve front and they may be forced to move some kids around and use Daniel Teo Nesheim a little bit more inside at tackle.

    Having youth limits what you can do.  Plus the speed of the game and all the thinking on each play with regard to not only your allignment and assignment but also the tips to help you get to the play and then how to perform once you get there.  Still, young kids sometimes play a little scared and that tends to help them.

    Whatever, if there is any place on this Husky team where there is an obvious shortage of quality players, it might be in the lines and particularly in the defensive line.  That is why you use true freshmen, because you have to.  Coach James always used a good quote that “the best time to play a freshman is when he’s a junior.”

    Therefore, how the youth on the defensive side of the ball performs could also be a key to the game but Washington needs to win this game and probably the remaining games with their offense. Jake Locker and his youth corp of skill players like backs, Chris Polk, freshman, Johri Fogerson, sophomore and Dimitrius Bronson, freshman.

    Those backs have to have their best games running, blocking and catching. They will be better simply by not making mistakes. They will be better because they have fresh legs.  Washington needs to run the ball effectively to win this game and for me that means running it in the second half when you have a lead. Just keep moving the chains and try to keep your defense on the sidelines. That is also a key.

     Then when  defense is on the field they can try to get some stops by creating some turnovers and attacking the Bruins quarterback, Kevin Prince.  He is also a freshman and that’s what you do to freshmen quarterbacks, you go after them so they have to hurry their decisions and hurry their throws. Play aggressively on defense and see what happens.

    The Bruins have lost 5 in a row and obviously have some doubts but they are still really talented and can fire if they get the lead.  If Washington could start early, take the lead, and play from the front, they will probably have a better chance of getting a win.  Even though the Bruins have an excellent punter and field goal kicker, as long as the Huskies don’t lose the kicking game they will be alright.  No blocks and no significant returns will really help them and no misses by the Husky kickers would be great.  So, there you have it, the keys to beating UCLA  just happen to be the same keys to beating anyone; don’t hurt yourself with turnovers, play good defense, run the ball, and don’t lose the kicking game.  A very simple formula for successful football.

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   Let’s get this straight, in the UW vs UCLA match-up, both teams are 3 and 5 and in desperate need of a win.  With only 4 games to play, each must win this game to have any chance of finishing out of the bottom tier of the Pac-10.  Washington has not won a game on the road this year or the past two years for that matter.  They have not won on grass either and in fact don’t even have a grass field to practice on. 

     Going back to the 2002 season when Rick Neuheisel was still the Coach at Washington the Huskies are something like 34 losses and only 7 wins when playing away from Husky Stadium. WAshington has also not won in the Rose Bowl since 1995 except when they won the 2001 Rose Bowl itself.  Its time to win a road game and they may as well do it in LA. 

    With a week off however, the Huskies might just be catching a team that has more self doubts then they do.  After opening up 3-0 including an impressive win over Tennessee, the Bruins have proceeded to drop 5 straight conference games. Washington has two unbelievable wins over USC and Arizona but has lost, like UCLA has, to both Oregon and Stanford.  If comparable opponent scores mean anything then the Bruins have been closer to both of those teams than the Huskies, losing only 24-10 to the Ducks and 24-16 to the Cardinal while the Dogs went down big to both.

     The Bruins are unsettled at quarterback and the Huskies are waiting for a monster game out of theirs.  Washington needs to have Jake Locker healthy and running if they are to win this game.  He and Chris Polk should be able to rush for enough to open up the passing game and that just wasn’t there against Oregon in their last game.  Oregon is proving a running quarterback can create havoc in this league and Locker needs to carry the football at least 10-12 times for the Huskies .

    The Bruins quarterback, Kevin Prince actually committed to come to Washington and had he done so then he would be sitting on the bench behind Locker.  That is the truth and that is the difference in this game. Washington has the better quarterback and now he needs to prove it.

     Because the Bruins have been playing 3 quarterbacks this season they have struggled on that side of the ball but do have two really big, as in 6-4 and 6-5, wide receivers and that could present a size match up problem for the Huskies on defense. Their receivers have dropped quite a few balls this year though and that has really hurt them offensively. Hopefully they can keep it up against Washington.The Bruins also have a really quick running back in Jonathon Franklin who a darter type runner. Washington needs to crowd the line of scrimmage and stop the run and bring the heat at Prince when its time to pass. UCLA likes to run quick slants and screens as a way to counter pressure so the Huskies may need to use some man to man coverages.

    The Huskies have also had two weeks to shore up the holes in their kicking game and just in time because UCLA has the best kickers in the conference.  Their punter, Jeff Locke, averages close to 45 yards per punt and also kicks off well into the end zone.  Locke is left footed so that puts an opposite spin on the ball for returners. Their kicker, Kai Forbath is 20 of 22 in field goals and has hit one from 53 yards out.

Their return man for all kicks is Terrance Austin and he is equally dangerous on punts and kickoffs.  Washington will need to be perfect on the road in its kicking game if they are to come home a winner. 

    It doesn ‘t really make any difference to the Husky team if Rick Neuheisel
is coaching the Bruins.  None of them played for him or were recruited by him so beating him will only please us fans.  They simply need to go out on the road and win a game. Doing so in Southern California would really help them as that is one of their main recruiting hotbeds.  There will be close to a dozen kids from that area who could end up as Huskies with many already committed.

     A win here would simply be huge for the program and its probably going to be like all the others, close and hard fought all the way to the finish with the Huskies winning on their last possession. I’ll take it by 1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

eff Locke

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