Winter 2009-2010: Get Ready for a Winter of Extremes!

Alright…what’s it gonna be? Snowy? Cold? Warm? Wet? Dry? We’ll find out after this long commercial break!

Just kidding After months of research and preparation I have finally completed my winter outlook for the nation with specifics for Western Washington and Oregon. I realize I have readers from all across the country, so if you would like any specifics for your area that are not covered in this blog post, feel free to drop me a comment or e-mail and I’d be happy to provide some insight.

A little disclaimer here: this forecast should not be taken as gospel. It is quite common for people to take forecasts like this and expect them to verify word for word. Long range forecasting is an imperfect science, but I believe there are enough signals out there that can point to a long range pattern or trend developing.

Such is the case this winter. We’ve (the Northwestern region of the U.S.) had a ridiculously wet fall after an anomalously dry late spring/summer/early fall. However, storms have been in abundance since May with several thunderstorms/funnel clouds reported all over the Northwest. This is highly unusual. Western Washington averages about 2 funnel clouds/tornadoes a year…we had 2 in just 2 months.

NATIONALLY

Another noticeable quality about the weather lately is the extreme nature of the weather trends. I expect this same pattern to continue through Winter 2009-2010. The nation as a whole will see more snow and ice storms than usual, particularly in the country’s mid-section. The East and West Coasts, however, will average about normal storm-wise, though this can be a bit misleading when just looking at the maps and I’ll explain in just a moment.

The southern portions of the U.S. will experience more tranquil weather than the rest of the country, especially in the southeast. Normally an El Nino winter would equate to cooler and wetter than normal conditions in the southeast. Not this year. According to my research, expect drier and milder conditions with mild, but wet conditions in the south/southwest. Overall, severe storms will be lacking all across the south.

From coast to coast, the cold and warm air will be distributed fairly evenly, however the east coast looks to be a bit more prone to ridging and mild weather, especially in January.

Overall, expect a colder and wetter than normal winter for much of the nation excepting the far west and east coasts and southern tier states.

LOCALLY

My forecast for the Northwest from December-February is calling for extremes in temperatures and precipitation, with stretches of unusually cold and wet weather for the first half with unusually dry and mild weather the 2nd half. When all is said and done, both ends of the spectrum will be so extreme, it will even out to “average”, This winter will likely be warmer and drier than the last 2 winters, however. Mountain snow fall will be above normal, averaging anywhere from 120-150% of normal. Lowland snow fall looks to be above normal as well with a Seattle/Portland snowfall depth average of 8”.

Despite the moderate El Nino, the Pacific SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) are in a negative phase and look to balance between weakly negative to neutral through the season. That along with an unusually strong Pacific Jet could very well increase our chances of receiving greater amounts of snow and rain than in a typical El Nino year, at least during the first half of winter (Dec and Jan).

My main analogs are 2006, 1968 and 1965, 2006 being weighted the heaviest. These analogs match closely with our most recent summer/fall pattern and I believe they will continue this winter.

DECEMBER: This month looks to feature less rain than November, but it will still average close to normal precipitation wise. Temperatures will be fairly chilly, however. I expect the monthly temperature to average below normal between 38-39 degrees. The month as a whole will feature a handful of dry, but chilly, overcast and sunny days, so there will be plenty of opportunities to get outside! I also see the strong potential for storminess at the beginning of the month, but the Jet should relax as the month wears on. (Temperature Average: 38.5 degrees–1.5 degrees below normal. Precipitation Average: 5”–0.62” below average) Month Snow Chance: 80%

JANUARY: This will likely be our most active month. I expect our first real cold outbreak to occur during this month along with periods of snow. However, once the cold arrives I see it being a ”dry cold” with most snow occurring during transitional phases (before/after warm air overrides cold air). I also expect a fair amount of storminess this month as the Pacific Jet kicks back up again. Towards the end of the month, however, El Nino will really ramp up with an impressive amount of warmth overtaking a good portion of the nation, especially the Northwest. Temperatures will average near normal with precipitation above normal. (Temperature Average: 40.0 degrees–0.9 degrees below normal. Precipitation: 6.50”– 1.37” above normal) Month Snow Chance: 90%

FEBRUARY: Looking for a break from the rain, cold and snow? This month will be a classic El Nino month: very mild and dry. I see a lot of record high temperatures being broken this month. A lot of folks will likely be tricked into thinking spring is coming early as many will note the lack of precipitation and cold weather throughout the month. Overall, a “breather” month for non-active weather fans (Temperature Average: 45.5 degrees–2.1 degrees above normal. Precipitation Average: 1.50”–2.6” below average) Month Snow Chance: 30%

MARCH: The weather will ramp up again after a “brief” lull. A few early month storms will come crashing into the Northwest, followed by some anomalous cold and snow. By mid month, however, we should dry out and warm up, forcing monthly average temperatures to end up above normal. Precipitation, however, looks above normal. (Temperature: 47.2 degrees–1 degree above average. Precipitation: 4.50”–0.75” above normal) Month Snow Chance: 70%

So there you have it! The pendulum will continue to swing this winter. We’ll check back  in April to see how I did!

Comments, questions and/or suggestions are always welcome so feel free!

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

E-mail: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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If I’m going to get a forecast completely wrong, it might as well be in this situation when I predict gloom and doom only to have sunny skies instead! But I suppose we’re not completely out of the woods: the atmosphere is still plenty unstable, and showers that DO show up will produce bursts of wind, heavy rain and/or hail.

Yesterday definitely was NOT a forecast bust as close to 2” of rain fell across the Peninsula with over 8” across the southern end of the Olympic Mountains along with gusty winds of 40+ mph.

If you want some more, Thursday, later Saturday and Monday of next week will feature a lot of the same: heavy rain and breezy conditions.

The mountain passes will also be getting plenty of snow this week into next weekend because of the cold nature of these storms. And wouldn’t you know it…a cold east wind kept snow going in the passes all day yesterday, so we didn’t lose much of anything! Some skier or snowboarder has been saying their prayers!

Have a great day. I’ll post the 7 day forecast map this evening,

~Matt

P.S. Tomorrow I will release my 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for the U.S. with, of course, more emphasis given on Western Washington. Want a hint? Buckle up

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Photo by: Anonymous

**A WIND ADVISORY remains in effect for all of Kitsap County. Click here for more information**

This is “sitting by the fire” weather for sure!

Today was an excessively wet day with a total of 1.11” of rain recorded in the rain gauge…and that’s just as of 5:34 PM. I expect close to 2” by midnight with another .50” or so by tomorrow afternoon. This will definitely help us avoid a “below normal precipitation” month that some were forecasting! (Heh heh…yeah, I was one of those folks But hey! I got the late September/October pattern right!)

Expect periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to persist through the evening/night with wind at calm levels until later on tonight as a secondary storm front blows through the area. Winds will increase to sustained levels of 20-30 mph across the greater Kitsap Peninsula with gusts as high as 50. With gusts as high as expected, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of some downed trees/power lines by tomorrow morning.

Heavy rain will continue tomorrow but subside, along with the winds, by the afternoon. By then we can all release a BIG sigh of relief before more rain and wind overtakes the area Wednesday evening into Thursday.

More rain (at times moderate) will continue throughout next weekend into the following week, but the good news is this will be cold rain, so that means making up for lost snow in the mountains!

Have a safe evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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Updated 5:22 PM

Welcome to stormy season! Get ready for a stormy couple of days as wind watches/warnings have been posted for all of Western Washington accompanied by copious amounts of rainfall…as in potentially 3-5” of rain in the main Kitsap area in about 48 hours. This seems too dramatic to be true, but the “firehose” is trending more and more south with the rain and if it keeps the trend going, we could be looking at serious flooding for the Skokomish River.

Take a look at this 48 hour rainfall forecast ending 4 am Tuesday. This shows the extreme rainfall amounts engulfing about 90% of the Kitsap Peninsula:

Another dangerous aspect of this storm is the warmer tropical air associated with it. You know all the snow we’ve accumulated in the mountains? Say bye-bye…this storm will ensure we either start from square one (yet again) in the mountain passes or at least get pretty close. Discouraging to say the least.

And lastly (hopefully, lastly…) there looks to be a major windstorm potential with this as well. Tomorrow and Tuesday look likely to produce strong winds, but how strong is still in question. If the NWS issues any wind watches/warnings I will post them.

Showers and sunbreaks look likely Wednesday before a stronger front moves through Thursday. A break then arrives Friday before some more heavy rain returns Saturday.

But it will feel like drizzle compared to what’s coming next!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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In actuality, folks, this “snow” chance really looks like nothing more than a mix of rain and snow…perhaps very wet snow for a brief period of time on  hills 500′ and above. There are showers to our north in the form of a convergence zone (I should do a post on that weather pattern soon…) and it could drift down to Central Kitsap. If the showers are heavy enough, we could see a mix of rain and snow as temperatures are only in the upper 30s and lower 40s as of 10:00. But overall, nothing to worry about.

But be it rain, snow, wind, hail, you name it, that won’t stop the Warren Avenue Knights from playing at the Pee Wee Football Championships on Saturday at Bremerton High School at 10:00 am. They defeated North Mason 31-0 and are going to fight to win the championships 2 years in a row! Here’s what it looks like:

As for the weather for the rest of the week? Plan on some pretty wet systems moving through the area every 48 hours or so starting Monday. Rain will increase during the day Monday and could turn quite heavy before a day of lighter rain Tuesday and Wednesday before another strong front pushes through Thursday. The details still need to be worked out, but overall it looks like pretty seasonable weather for mid November!

And, wouldn’t you know it, long range models have been pretty consistent on a tranquil Thanksgiving holiday. Models have been flip-flopping on whether it will be really cold or really mild, but at this point it looks really calm!

Have a great day,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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But what makes this situation interesting is the potential for some wet snow to fall wherever moisture hangs around Friday evening and overnight. Snow levels will drop to 500′ by Friday evening, so any precipitation could become a chunky mix of rain and wet snow, cold rain, or brief snow, but this is a big “IF” situation: “IF we get precipitation heavy enought to allow a bit of snow, IF it’s cold enough by the time the precip gets here, IF you live in a hilly area that would support such snow,” etc. So don’t quote me on this! Just don’t be surprised if you see some chunky splats on your windshield tomorrow evening

Good news is, what appeared to be heavy rain arriving this weekend looks relatively light as most of that would-be moisture takes aim to our north (a common thing during El Nino years). In fact, Saturday looks mostly dry.

Here’s the statement made by the NWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
430 PM PST THU NOV 12 2009

…ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY…

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY MORNING…BRINGING RAIN…MOUNTAIN SNOWS…LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
LOWLANDS.

SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR INCLUDING THE ADMIRALTY INLET REGION. WIND
SPEEDS IN THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH…MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE ISLAND COUNTY AREA.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES…WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA…WIND OF THIS STRENGTH COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW
TREE LIMBS HERE AND THERE WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

COLDER AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER ALREADY LOW
SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL THEN GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 500
FEET BY EVENING. THIS MEANS SOME OF THE HIGHEST HILLS AROUND THE
REGION COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER…OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OR THE IMMEDIATE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS…LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

I’ll blog more about this tomorrow morning…

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST (Can’t believe I added the first snowflakes of the season to my map!)

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Hope you didn’t make any outdoor plans! This is a forecast map displaying a strong storm that will drop buckets of water across Kitsap on Monday

Today was the definition of PERFECT fall weather. And I mean perfect. Crisp temperatures in the upper 40s, sunshine, a light wind and no rain (well, at least not in the daylight hours ). I know many of you enjoyed coming up for air today, but it appears we’ll be back in the fish tank soon enough. Before we get there, though, a blast of chilly air will visit this weekend.

After a tranquil Thursday, Friday will feature more in the way of clouds and rain. But high temperatures will be noticeably cooler in the low to mid 40s. That’s about where we average in winter! At night, snow levels will also plummet to 1,000′ and possibly even lower in the heavier showers. I’m not about to mention the “s” word, but hey…if you see some lumpy rain Friday night, consider yourself lucky! Lows will sink near freezing once skies clear.

Now here’s where it gets complicated: a strong tropical weather system will sucker-punch either B.C., Western Washington or somewhere in between, but weather models are confused as to where this storm system wants to go. If the firehose IS aimed at us, we could look at a prolonged period of steady, moderate to heavy rain for 48 hours straight—or more. This is a complex situation, so stay tuned as details change.

After a soaking end to the weekend/start to next week, look for pretty typical Washington rain and mountain snow.

Hey, any pattern that brings snow to the mountains is fine with me!

P.S. My official winter outlook will be released sometime next week…watch out for it!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Weather photos? E-mail them to me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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Isn’t that great? Thank you, Warren Avenue Knights and good luck on Wednesday at the Semi-Finals!

Speaking of which, here’s the Semi Finals Forecast (Wednesday November 11th at around 5 PM in the West Bremerton/Silverdale area)!

It’ll be a cold and wet one, but hey…that makes it more fun …sometimes.

The rest of the week will feature periods of rain with Thursday being the most pleasant day. Heavy rain returns for the Pee Wee Playoffs on Saturday.

Welcome to November!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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Not only did this monster of a storm produce gigantic waves, but a funnel cloud in Enumclaw. This is the second funnel cloud to hit the area, the first occuring over Labor Day Weekend back in September (1st photo by Tyson Gambin of Enumclaw, 2nd photo by Steven Williams of Buckley):

As you can see, this storm was a biggie. Scott Sistek of KOMO 4 Weather writes: “A buoy out in the middle of it in the Gulf of Alaska reported a pressure of just 946 millibars, which is about 27.95″ on the mercury scale and just short of Category 4 hurricane strength, had it been a hurricane.” And just to think, as crazy as the weather was this weekend, it could have been worse!

And more good news: the mountains have been getting hammered. Check the Mountain Forecast pages under “More Information” for…well, more information

Have a great Sunday,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Weather Photos? Send them to me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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Nick Smidt (#50), Warren Avenue Pee Wee’s D-String. 2008 Champions. Behind him, Zach Storey (#21) and Darelle White (#22) 

 Good grief! What a day it has been. At 11:30 am or so I think I experienced the heaviest rain of my life (of course, my life hasn’t spanned for very many years, but still!). And, I must admit, it came as a surprise. I mean, I knew it would rain periodically today, but I didn’t expect the torrential downpours we experienced this afternoon and now again this evening!

Expect periods of very heavy rain and breezy winds through the night with flashes of lightning and startling rumbles of thunder. Tomorrow will be no different: heavy rain, blustery conditions and variable skies will be the theme for tomorrow. Highs will also be rather cool in the upper 40s.

Not only will Mother Nature be busy stirring up some active weather for our Saturday, but the Kitsap Pee Wee Football Playoffs will begin tomorrow to add more action to the mix! So, as promised, here’s my forecast for the Quarter Finals, which will be all day in the East Bremerton/South Kitsap area:

The Semi Finals are on Wednesday November 11th at around 5 PM in the West Bremerton/Silverdale area and peeking ahead into the long range it also looks pretty wet. Not as wet as Saturday, but still pretty cold and damp.

The Final Championship Game is on Saturday November 14th at Bremerton High School from 10 am-4 pm. And though I’m pushing the long range extra hard with this one, it appears dry with the heaviest rain averted to our north. Of course, take this forecast with a grain of salt, but at least right now it looks optimistic! Oh, and our fellow blog reader Colleen Smidt would like to say, “Go Warren Avenue Knights!”

Lastly, blog reader, Coach Gary, also wanted to let everyone know the Pee Wee Flag kids are having their Tournament on November 21st at Carpenter Field (Warren Avenue Playfield). Go out and support the youth! While I was never really good at sports growing up (and I still can’t throw a ball very straight…) I had fond memories of playing sports with my friends.

If you would prefer staying indoors and watching the rain fall, don’t worry about missing one day of “sit by the fire and read a book while sipping your coffee” weather, because Monday looks active, chilly and wet. Oh joy! At least Sunday of this weekend and the remainder of next week looks tolerable, so go out and do something those days!

Have a GREAT weekend and good luck football players!

(Oooh…and don’t forget to visit the mountain forecast page under “More Information” on the right hand side! They’re getting a dumping of snow this weekend!)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

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