Hello, all! You have likely noticed this blog has been the
quietest since I left for my two year mission to South Africa.
There are a couple reasons for this and I wanted to take a moment
and explain some of the changes that have occurred over the past
couple weeks:
I want to make my forecasts more easily accessible and have
therefore decided to spend most of my time preparing daily weather
updates which can be found every weekday morning on the Kitsap Sun
homepage. The Sun will also host links to their Facebook
page.
This blog will not be updated as frequently as before as most
of my time will be spent providing daily weather forecasts.
However, expect weather updates, with accompanying graphics, one to
two times a week on this blog and on my Kitsap Weather Facebook
page.
As always during moments of extreme weather, I will update this
blog as frequently as needs be.
I hope you will find this new format more efficient and
satisfying your daily weather needs. I’ve promised a long range
outlook for a while, so look for one tomorrow!
Have a great day,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Hello, everyone! Sorry for the lack of posts the past couple
days. Hope you’ve been able to make it to work or school OK without
my life-saving forecasts! 😉
We are about to say goodbye to February, a month that has
featured fairly cool, wet and cloudy weather. We now look with
anticipation for the marching in of…well, March on Friday.
They say March rolls in like a lion and in one sense that will
be true. After a wet and somewhat mild day tomorrow, we’ll get a
break from the action on the first day of March. A cold front will
stall off the southern B.C. coast, so we’ll be on the warmer side
of the system. Remember how we made a big deal about exceeding 50
degrees a week or so ago? Yeah, well we’re about to outdo ourselves
again with the possibility of reaching 60 degrees on Friday. The
last time we reached 60? October 16th, 2012.
Unfortunately for those with spring fever, we cool down slightly
for Saturday, then cool down quite dramatically on Sunday with high
temperatures falling into perhaps the mid 40s (hey, that cold front
can’t stall over B.C. forever! ;)).
So I’ll be on the look out for the 60 degree reading! Spring is
almost here, I can feel it!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Happy Wednesday, everyone! We’re half way through the week.
Tomorrow is Valentine’s Day, or as I have come to affectionately
call it, “Single Awareness Day”. However this upcoming day is
known to you, one thing is for sure: The weather won’t be playing
along.
In fact, tomorrow’s weather will be the opposite of lovely.
Remember “Pacific Storm Rambo” that was *supposed* to make landfall
this morning? Yes, well, completely contrary to the nature of its
name, this storm has been dragging its feet and will roll through
the region early tomorrow morning instead. So expect a fairly wet
first half of the day, followed by scattered showers and possibly a
few sun breaks.
Perhaps the best weather news I can deliver for tomorrow is that
highs will come dangerously close to breaking 50 degrees. Remember,
we still haven’t managed to do that since early November!
The remainder of the forecast also doesn’t look overly lovely,
but at least things look fairly tame out there in the deep, dark
Pacific Ocean. Showers will dominate the weekend pattern, with a
few sunbreaks reserved for Sunday. Clouds and showers return for
the new week.
Stay tuned for a long range forecast update on Friday! Have a
great day,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
With the recent passing of Nemo (I’m talking about the winter
storm here ;)), many meteorologists have had a flurry of discussion
over The Weather Channel’s naming of winter storms.
The concern comes from the meteorological tradition of naming
hurricanes and tropical storms.
The L.A. times interviewed George Wright, a meteorologist and
the founder of Wright Weather Consulting in New York, who said, “A
named storm should be a hurricane, and only a hurricane. A
hurricane is something that’s more unusual and devastating. If you
start naming other storms, people will suddenly think this might be
a hurricane.”
What do you think about the issue? Is The Weather
Channel qualified to take upon themselves the duty of naming winter
storms, or should they leave it alone? I have created a new poll on
the right hand sidebar where you can cast your vote.
In our neck of the woods, The Weather Channel wouldn’t waste
their time trying to name any storm systems that blow onshore
because, well, they would run out of names. But for the heck of it,
let’s see how it sounds!
Pacific storm “Rambo” will slice its way
onshore early Wednesday morning, providing a steady, ruthless
stream of rain all day. Highs will be in the mid 40s.
Pacific storm “Batman” will swoop into the
region early Saturday, but this band of precipitation will be small
and harmless. Like a bat.
And then there’s Pacific storm “Sherlock”,
which will suavely maneuver its way onshore Monday, only to
disappear by the afternoon. Highs will remain in the mid 40s.
Ok, ok, I’ll admit it. Naming weather systems is kind of fun. If
anything, this makes Western Washington weather sound
really cool 😉
Have a great evening,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Early this morning, in front of a
large international crowd, Phil emerged from his burrow and…did not
see his shadow. Therefore, an early spring is in the forecast. But
how accurate is this over-sized ball of fluff? According to
groundhog.org, he is right 100% of the time. You might also
find this
experiment interesting, where the National Climatic Data Center
put Phil’s predictions to the test.
For our sakes, I hope he’s right! The
short term forecast doesn’t look very spring-like, and we still
haven’t exceeded 50 degrees since November 6th, but we must
maintain hope that today’s clouds eventually burn off.
So when exactly was the last time we registered a temperature
above 50 degrees? It’s been quite chilly lately, but surely our
goose-bumped skin has been exposed to such mild weather
sometime recently!
Actually, no, not at all. But before I reveal the specific day
we last saw 51+ temperatures, here’s a little representation of
what the temperature spread has been since November 1st:
NUMBER OF DAYS
WITH THE FOLLOWING TEMPERATURE READINGS SINCE NOVEMBER 1ST,
2012 (Bremerton Airport):
50+°= 12 (First six days of November being 51+ degrees, and
then six other days during the past three months with a 50 degree
reading)
40+°= 57
30+°= 22
20+° (low temperature)= 26
10°+ (low temperature)= 4
It shouldn’t be surprising that we registered most days 40° and
above, but what should stand out even more is how often we hit the
30s, 20s, and teens, and how infrequently we’ve been over 50. The
Bremerton area usually averages about 8 days with highs in the 30s
during the winter and we’ve nearly tripled it.
And now we wait in suspense. The weather this weekend is a real
tricky one. If we reach 51 degrees or more tomorrow, that will be
the first time since………November 6th, 2012! We will
have gone almost three whole months without seeing the big 5-0 on
the seven day forecast, but the first weekend of February is taking
on the challenge.
A ridge of high pressure is building, but we run the same risk
of seeing low clouds and fog Friday night into Saturday morning.
The little fly in the ointment is that the fog doesn’t
completely burn off on Saturday, which could keep our temperatures
in the upper 30s/lower 40s a good part of the day. If skies clear,
we could see highs easily hit the low 50s. For now, I expect skies
to become at least partly sunny by Saturday afternoon with highs
just over the 50 degree mark.
Sunday is another 50+ contender before skies cloud up and
temperatures fall. We get so close to touching 50 and then it gets
taken from us! All the more reason to enjoy this weekend. If the
sun refuses to come out on the peninsula, head to the Cascade
foothills! It’ll be plenty mild up there 🙂
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Sometimes weather forecasters and the general public believe
that if that little golden orb of light is shining on the 7
day forecast, such will be the case with no exceptions. Then again,
if you’re from Washington you know that golden orb is taunting more
than anything else. Take a look at this satellite image from this
afternoon:
As strange as it sounds, if you travel closer to the foothills
or coastline, you’ll find temperatures soaring into the 40s and
50s! A couple days ago some foothill locations actually recorded
temperatures in the 70s. What has Kitsap been doing the whole time?
Oh, I think you know. We are sitting in a bowl of freezing fog and
freezing temperatures. Today was quite a bit warmer than yesterday,
but still…the fog has overstayed its welcome.
So when will this inversion end, you ask? Well, we need some
good mixing, and since we can’t get it in the way of strong
sunlight or strong wind, we’re going to have to settle with rain.
This means we’ll see locally thick areas of fog and freezing fog
until early Wednesday morning when a moderate pacific system rolls
through. Right now this looks like a fairly warm storm, so
temperatures should rise dramatically.
From Wednesday we start to take another downward trend in
temperatures. Right now I’m looking at mainly mostly cloudy skies
with cold rain, but some forecast models show flakes in the
forecast as soon as next weekend. Nothing is a slam dunk as of yet,
but I’d say we definitely have a better chance at seeing colder
than normal weather in the next 6-14 days than warmer than normal
weather.
As always, stay tuned! For now, enjoy the weekend and try to
escape the fog if you can 🙂
I have to admit, I feel a little bad for my poor “mostly sunny”
weather icons. They don’t get to gradually fill their way into the
forecast, they were pretty much forced against their will to come
out of hibernation and brighten up the next seven days for us. I’m
sure they would appreciate your warmest regards.
It has actually been quite a while since we’ve entered a winter
pattern that has allowed so much sun time. The Seattle National
Weather Service said this afternoon:
THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A DRY SPELL OF
A WEEK OR MORE IN JANUARY WAS BACK IN 2009 (11 DAYS, 13TH
THROUGH THE
23RD FOR SEATAC)
Kind of sad, isn’t it? But hey, we’ll take what we can get.
Although none of us saw much snow out of this cold pattern, it is
still fairly unusual to transition back to a classically rainy/wet
Washington winter without some sort of Hood Canal overrunning snow
event. Who knows if we’ll actually skate by without any drama, but
for the foreseeable future we’re going to be riding one big ridge
of high pressure.
But don’t be fooled. With cool, northerly flow it will be hard
to increase temperatures dramatically. In fact, it may be a few
days until we get the 40s back on the record books. Low
temperatures will also remain quite cold as they remain, for the
most part, in the 20s.
Speaking of lows, did you know we hit 19 degrees at Bremerton
Airport this morning? I’m sure some of you were colder, but usually
when Western Washington gets below 20 degrees it all feels the same
😉
I’ll keep my eyes on the models, but in the meantime stay warm
and safe out there!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
I will never pretend to understand the weather here, but I will
always strive to predict it the best I can. The past month has
featured some pretty crazy weather, and there appears to be a
strange light at the end of the tunnel that I have a hard time
trusting. Believe me, after spending two years in southern Africa I
have seen my fair share of mirages!
But something tells me after Saturday’s overly complicated
forecast we’ll take a break from our action-packed seven day
forecast discussions and revert to cruise control. And let’s just
say you won’t hear me complaining about it 😉
It was a cold day today with Bremerton Airport reporting a high
of 36 degrees. Some of you reported a mix of rain/snow showers a
couple times during the morning/afternoon hours, but for most of us
it was a cold, showery January day in Western Washington.
Temperatures will drop below freezing tonight, so watch out for
slick spots! Skies will clear for the most part tomorrow, but don’t
be fooled. Highs will still struggle to make it out of the 30s,
with mid to upper 30s a common number around the peninsula.
And then there’s Saturday. Rumor has it we could see a
widespread snow event on Saturday, and my honest opinion
is…probably not. What it is looking like right now is a cold,
partly to mostly cloudy day with the chance for some light snow
showers. I still think some accumulations are possible, especially
on the western half of Kitsap County, but this is in no way looking
like a Hollywood blockbuster. Highs will stay in the 30s with icy
lows in the 20s.
And you know, the darnedest thing happens after that. Skies will
clear on Sunday which will pave the way for warming temperatures
and a little string of partly to mostly sunny days through mid week
next week. Highs will also get back to normal, if not slightly
above. The main story will be the lack of precipitation over the
next 7 days as a large area of high pressure builds in
overhead.
I don’t hear many of you complaining about that 😉 And I don’t
know, if you ask me I still think we’ve got enough ammo in the jet
stream to give us one more snow chance before winter is over.
Amidst the relentless
clouds and rain of 2012, Mother Nature gave us some rare
opportunities to enjoy the scenery. Photo by: Larry Steagall,
Manette Bridge, December 16th, 2012
**UPDATE 6:20 PM (1/3/2013): Some of you have
reported periods of snow, mostly close to the Hood Canal.
Temperatures are a couple degrees above freezing with dew points in
the 20s, but this should not extend past midnight and
accumulations, if any, will be light.**
I know what many of you are thinking: “When do we not
have a cloudy, cold and wet year?” But wait until you see the
numbers. 2012 was FAR from normal.
I’ve been busy the past couple days compiling information for a
“year in review” blog post and while I do have some interesting
data, it is hard to compare it to past years. Why? All we really
have to go by (as far as official data is concerned) is the numbers
spit out by the Bremerton National Airport (KPWT). Luckily the
weather station only shut down on us twice this year, and only for
a few days at a time. Other than that, weather records were
preserved.
Earlier today I spoke to a meteorologist from the Seattle
National Weather Service who said, “Despite insufficient [weather]
records on the Kitsap Peninsula, most areas in Western Washington
were between their 5th to 10th wettest years on record, and I don’t
imagine Kitsap would have been the exception.”
Photo by: Larry Steagall,
November 2012 (Olympic College, Bremerton)
With that being said, let’s get started with what little I have
😉 Meteorologists certainly had a fun year. We have seen:
Ice/snowstorms (January 2012; I was in South
Africa from May 2010-May 2012, so I don’t have any Kitsap data for
that!)
Even if I was only in the country for half the year, it kept us
on our toes! So how did we do in terms of average temperatures and
precipitation? I’ll let the numbers speak for their cold and wet
selves:
Bremerton (2012)
Monthly Rain
+/- Normal
Avg. Temp
+/- Normal
January
6.54”
-2.35”
36.1
-5.9
February
3.30”
-2.92”
39.4
-2.6
March
8.44”
+2.49”
39.7
-6.3
April
2.30”
-1.27”
43.1
-6.9
May
2.29”
-0.17”
48.6
-8.0
June
2.78”
+1.09”
53.0
-7.5
July
1.07”
+0.21”
60.4
-4.6
August
0.00”
-1.03”
64.4
-1.6
September
0.01”
-1.54”
58.2
-2.8
October
11.58”
+6.69”
50.0
-2.0
November
15.45”
+6.06”
43.1
-1.9
December
12.25”
+2.18”
37.8
-2.2
AVERAGE
66.01”
+9.44”
47.8
-4.4
Needless to say, it was a cold and wet year! Especially from
March-July. Wow, a minus 8 departure? I had to check and re-check
my numbers, but they proved consistent.
Amazingly, we didn’t set any record low temperatures! We did set
two record high temperatures, however. 89 degrees on August 4th and
96 degrees on August 5th.
On the Kitsap Peninsula we average just over 56” of rain a year,
but there are still many locations that average more. Take this
precipitation map for example:
How about sunshine, snowfall, and cloud cover? Not too
surprisingly, it has been a pretty cloudy year. I don’t have
averages, but I do have the 2012 statistics:
Peeking ahead at the long range forecast, it appears we could
enter a pretty cold string of weather in the next couple weeks.
Obviously nothing is set in stone, but things look to be getting
interesting again real soon.
In the short term, expect a rain through the weekend and into
early next week before tapering off to showers. Highs will stay
near normal in the low to mid 40s.
Have a great evening everyone, and let’s make it another great
year!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
