Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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POLL/VIDEO: Predicting Weather One Year in Advance?

Sunday, June 28th, 2009

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Can one British scientist, Piers Corbyn, predict the weather accurately a year in advance? He certainly believes he can, and his credibility is growing with his accurate forecasts. ABC was not willing to provide the embedding video code from YouTube, so I’ll give you the link to the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jigqTiaLZ8

Conventional meteorologists do not appreciate people like him because he, quite bluntly put, thinks outside the box. I admire astrometeorologists and the long range weather forecasts they produce because it requires much more than just looking at the ocean waters: they study the stars, sun, and other space phenomena that interfere with our weather. Of course, most meteorologists believe that stuff is just hokey. I think it is very real and I have seen long range forecasts from astrometeorologists come true with incredible accuracy.

Corbyn is also controversial because of his belief in global cooling and how man-made global warming is just not true. Most meteorologists believe—and I mean strongly believe—in the global warming theory. To me it’s just a bunch of government propaganda, but hey that’s my opinion. There are  many strong indicators that we are in a cooling phase that could last us until 2040, according to Dr. Corbyn. In fact, according to the Dr., global temperatures have been cooling since 1998. I’ll post more about astrometeorology in the coming months, especially in August and September when astro-winter predictions are made.

So, those are my thoughts/opinions on the issue. What are yours? There’s a new poll on the right hand side where you can voice your opinion. I know it was pretty dangerous to admit on this blog that I don’t believe in man-made global warming because this state is largely a Democratic one, but that’s why we have a comment section and a new poll, right? I’d like to hear your thoughts. Just be civil about it.

I’ll now switch into my “conventional inside-the-box meteorologist” mode and give you the forecast for the week versus next year :) . There are definite improvements, that’s for sure as Monday now looks partly sunny after morning clouds…I was afraid we’d be socked in for most of the day, but it should end up being a lot like today. Tuesday through Friday we enter a gradual warming trend with highs starting in the low 70s and rising to possibly 80 degrees by Thursday.

The 4th of July is looking better as far as no precipitation is concerned, but there seems to be a strong enough marine push that would only increase the amount of clouds in the sky and cool the temperatures down. But again, it looks dry and pleasant.

Have a great week this week and be safe!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

36


POLL: What is Your Favorite Weather Event?

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

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Due to other blog duties lately I haven’t had a chance to introduce the new poll on the right hand side of this blog which is titled: “What is Your Favorite Weather Event?” I’m interested to see what my fellow Kitsapers consider their favorite type of weather. So, please cast your vote! If the poll will not allow you to, please let me know. I am aware of the polling system not working every once in a while!

If your favorite weather is partly sunny skies with comfortable highs in the low to mid 70s, you’re in luck as the next few days will feature just that as tomorrow, Thursday and Friday look partly sunny after morning clouds with highs in the low to mid 70s.

An increase in clouds and a few sprinkles overtake the area this weekend pleasing all you cool/damp weather fans, but the sun comes back out and warms things back up again for the sunny/comfortable weather fans which should continue through the last week of spring!

You thunderstorm and/or snow fans may have to wait a bit longer to get what you want :)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

271


Swine Flu: How Weather Can Play a Role in Sickness Part 1

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

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I guess after reading this article it makes sense: weather has played and continues to play a role in spreading sickness—and the swine flu is no exception. (By the way…this is allergies season and I have created a new poll about it. Do you suffer from them? Or did you luck out?)

“Accuweather.com reports that warmer temperatures mean more gatherings/outdoor events resulting in a higher risk of associating with someone who is infected with the disease, which can be up to 7 days. A simple sneeze or cough in a public place can allow a dispersion of the virus thereby expanding the outbreak.”

Accuweather also notes: “the warmer spring weather also means more vacations and more people traveling. That means some of the cases might be related to people traveling into Mexico, the outbreak’s epicenter.” Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity says to be safe, before traveling it would be wise to check the CDC website for travel restrictions/more information concerning the outbreak.

Thankfully there have been no reports of swine flu in Washington (*knock on wood*) and I sure hope it stays that way. For some good tips on how to stay safe/healthy during this outbreak you can click here.

Now let’s talk about the weather. This morning was certainly wet and cloudy as predicted but the sun has come out and what you see outside right now will be the trend over the next few days. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday look partly to mostly sunny with highs starting out in the low 60s Wednesday but jumping to the upper 60s by Friday. So this means a good weekend, right!

Ehhh…not exactly. Models have been having a tough time with the forecast pattern for Saturday but they paint a generally wet and cloudy day with Sunday being the better of the two. It’ll also be cooler with highs dropping back to the 50s/low 60s.

Long range pattern? Still looking kinda cool and showery…not where I’d like to see us headed. But then again, as a staff member at school “April showers bring May flowers, but May flowers still bring May showers.” I suppose that’s the tradeoff :)

Have a great evening and be safe!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

forecastingkitsap@live.com

7 DAY FORECAST

8


Too Early For the Ice Cream Man?

Friday, April 24th, 2009

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Maybe THIS should have been my poll question!

I was sitting at the coffee table doing some school work (well, actually I was on Facebook working on talking to some friends from school, so technically I was doing school work…) when I heard a familiar song from a familiar moving vehicle—a song that still to this day makes my heart jump and my hands reach for my pockets in hope for a one dollar bill. What was that noise?

The Ice Cream Truck playing Scott Joplin’s The Entertainer.

I quickly sat myself back down when I realized my 18th birthday is two weeks away and buying an ice cream cone from the Ice Cream Man would feel a little awkward. But I also thought about the oddity of the situation: isn’t it late April?…and… Didn’t we wake up to frosty lawns this morning? (NOTE: I’ll do a garden forecast soon, but until then I’d hold off on starting those gardens right now…for those who have lived here for a really long time know you should at least wait until Memorial Day weekend to plant stuff because sporadic mid spring freezes are quite common) To top it all off high temperatures didn’t even break 60 degrees across a large portion of Kitsap, so what’s the deal?

I think the Ice Cream Man has a serious case of summer fever as do many other Kitsap residents. I thought it was pretty cool to see the truck though. While much too early, it is at least a sign that we’re getting ever closer to summery weather. For the short term we’re definitely going to be sunnier for the next week or so than we have been for quite a while, but it isn’t exactly looking warm as cool northerly flow will keep the temperatures close to normal in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tomorrow looks like the only day for the next seven that will be even the slightest bit threatening as mostly cloudy skies and showers overtake the area with highs in the low to mid 50s.

But by Sunday through the rest of next week we stick to a pretty steady theme of partly to mostly sunny skies and slightly cooler than comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

I’ll do a long range update tomorrow, but I’ll give you a hint where we’re headed: back down the roller coaster…

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

61


POLL: So Far This Spring Has Been…

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

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In last weeks poll, “What is Your Favorite Weatherman Pick-up Line?” the line: “I better post a High Wind Warning because you’re blowing me away!” was the reader favorite with “Your heart is as warm as a strong El Nino; will you be my La Nina?” coming in second place. Hope you had some fun with those!

This weeks poll is one I’ve been meaning to ask you guys: what is your opinion on this spring? I actually asked quite a few staff members/students at my school about their thoughts concerning this spring and not everyone’s answer was the same. So, I decided to put it to the test to see what you think about our temperatures/precipitation since spring began in March.

Now let’s talk about weather :) A Forecasting Kitsap reader asked me today if we can ever have heat waves/warm episodes from warm air that filters from the south like California or Mexico. The answer is absolutely! In fact, our most recent warm episode early this week was partly due to a warm thermal pocket enveloping the southwest. From time to time we get a taste of that and early this week we most certainly did! In the summer we can also have those southerly winds that bring in warm air into our region. Good question!

The forecast for tomorrow will be very similar to day except without the rain. That means partly sunny skies and pleasant high temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s.

A minor system affects us Saturday which should bring nothing more than some cloud cover and a few sprinkles. Highs will cool to the mid to upper 50s.

And then we exhale in relief as the rest of the forecast consists of mostly sunny skies and high temps in the low to mid 60s. Is there a chance to reach the 70s again? You bet, but right now it is looking like just a mild ridge as opposed to a warm ridge.

Have a great evening and enjoy the sunshine!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

51


Beautiful Day For a Picnic! Who Wants Seconds?

Sunday, April 19th, 2009

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The type of weather we experienced today might be compared to your favorite meal…if you only have one helping, you feel good but not quite satisfied. Would you like a  little more Sunshine Surprise for tomorrow as well? Ok, we can give that to you and how about Tuesday? Thirds are always nice unless you’re on a diet. But c’mon, who is on a sunshine diet?

Tonight expect mostly clear skies ahead of the crystal clear skies tomorrow. Highs will be quite warm in the low to mid 70s. Today’s high was 68 degrees, just a couple degrees shy of the predicted 70, so even if I’m a couple degrees off tomorrow’s temperature, EVERYONE will still be happy. Mmmm that second helping feels good!

Models have come around to the idea of a slower break down of our nice ridge so mild temperatures and sunshine will be the theme for Tuesday was well. Highs will be just a couple degrees cooler than tomorrow in the mid to upper 60s. Are you full yet?

Wednesday now doesn’t look as cloudy and wet with only a few showers here and there (don’t you love it when the forecast models back off on precipitation like this? If we were in December and talking about snow I’d be a little disappointed, but now I’m perfectly fine with it!). Thursday, Friday and the weekend look quite similar with non-threatening rain showers and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

In fact, peeking at the long range no real threatening storms look likely in the future with possibly some more warm episodes for mid to late week next week.

I guess we’re going on a rain and clouds diet versus a sunshine diet!

Have a great evening,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

2


POLL: What is Your Favorite Weatherman Pick-up Line?

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

legends20rose

Uhh…yeah. I’m bored. How’d you guess ;)

We all know meteorologists have the horrible and sorta true stereotype of never being able to pick up a date—I mean, other than weather what else is there to talk about? But I found some funny (and some lame) weatherman pick-up lines that I dare each and every one of you to try. On the right hand side you can read through them and vote. If any of you readers think you have better weather pick-up lines (or just pick-up lines in general) feel free to post them!…just make sure they’re appropriate :)

This past week’s poll was pretty successful with 48 votes. 54% of you prefer temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the summer with 29% of you preferring upper 60s/low 70s in the summer. Overall, if we can be anywhere between 68º and 83º all summer long there will be a lot of happy campers. And to my amazement, not one person voted that they like 90º+ temperatures. I guess all 48 of us are true Washingtonians!

Aside from the wet and cloudy front moving through tomorrow morning the bigger story is the late weekend/early week heatwave we are about to experience. It is tough to determine how long the warm temps/sunshine will last, but it looks to last at least a few days.

Saturday looks partly sunny with highs in the mid 60s but Sunday and Monday both look generally sunny with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. So the 24% of you who voted that as your favorite temperature range in the summer are getting your wish!

After that look for an even mix of clouds, showers and sunbreaks which could offer up some cool rainbow photos. Remember, if you have any cool weather pix feel free to e-mail them to me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

Have a fantastic evening and use those pick-up lines! :)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

0


Tax Day Tea Party in Olympia–Rallying in Good Weather

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

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Today was certainly an historic day—I participated in the Tax Day Tea Party  (T.E.A standing for “Taxed Enough Already”) in Olympia. I understand there’s a similar gathering in Downtown Bremerton on the boardwalk tonight at 6 PM so if you have time, you should check it out.

One thing that is important to remember when talking about this Tax Day Tea Party is it is not a republican or democratic issue nor is it a rally against paying taxes, it is gathering together regardless of political stance fighting for freedom from the bondage of debt our past and current government has so frivolously thrown us in. Below are more pictures related to the Tea Party I attended.

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Now of course this is a weather blog and I have to tie this into weather somehow. The good news is, weather is probably the easiest subject to mix in with other surrounding subjects so here I go: the weather was absolutely beautiful today, almost as if Mother Nature was like, “Hey, I feel sorry for you tax payers down there, I’ll clear the skies for you!” The cherry blossoms were stunning and the air was fresh and clean. The temperatures were also rather comfortable nudging close to 60 by 1 PM.

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Will this continue? Well, it will but we’re going to have a brief intermission as a front will move through tomorrow spreading more in the way of clouds and cooler temperatures. Friday looks like the wettest day of the next 7, and that’s not saying a whole lot because most of the precip will be light and showery in nature. Highs will be closer to seasonal norms.

A ridge builds over the weekend, but we could be looking at a “dirty ridge”, which is a term used by meteorologists to describe a dry but sorta cloudy pattern as some weak weather systems will pass to our north, bringing some mid and high level clouds. Highs are still looking mild in the 60s.

Warmer and even sunnier weather looks likely later in the weekend into early next week before the clouds and showers look to move in and put us back into reality.

Have a fantastic evening and have fun at any Tax Day Parties you may go to!

(If you are going to comment about the Tea Party and/or the pictures involved, please keep it civil)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

80


POLL: What Are the Most Comfortable Summer Temperatures?

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

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I think I’ll retire the poll I’ve had on the sidebar for over a week now asking the question: When Will We See Record Warmth?

46% of you believe there is no such thing as warmth in Washington, but 19% of you believe we’ll see record warmth either in May or June. Right now the numbers are tied. We’ll see what happens! The 15% that think record warmth will strike this month aren’t completely out of the contest as we still have plenty of days left to reach a record high.

So let’s start a new poll. We just went through a mini heatwave with high temps in the 60s and 70s all across the area. This got me to thinking: where are you most comfortable when it comes to summer temperatures? 60s? 70s? 80s? 90+? I am a true Washingtonian and can’t handle temperatures much above 80. 65-73º is just fine with me. So go ahead and cast your vote!

**NOTE: If the poll on the right hand side is not working for you (it doesn’t let me vote and a fellow reader also commented about the inability to cast her vote) then feel free to participate by submitting a comment.

Are we going to see anymore summer-like weather? Well, within the next 7 days it doesn’t look likely but the long range looks optimistic.

Tomorrow and Friday will be quite similar: partly sunny with showers and highs in the 50s.

Saturday looks just as showery with mostly cloudy skies. The day of concern is Easter and I know many of you are hoping for a nice dry day to do some egg hunting. If I were you, I’d do the hunting on Friday or Saturday as an organized low pressure system is expected to swing to our south bringing cool temperatures, rain, clouds and breezy conditions on Sunday. By the looks of it any outdoor plans could be thwarted. Stay tuned.

Monday looks like a raw day with highs nearly 10º below normal. Skies will also be mostly cloudy with rain showers falling across the area. In fact, Monday night into Tuesday we could see some wet snow on the local hills. Oh goody.

After a mostly cloudy and showery Wednesday we look to greatly improve and even warm up a little. Maybe not the best timing, but we’ll take what we can get :)

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

75


POLL: Predicting Old Man Winter’s Retirement

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

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So far this Spring Break I’ve been doing a lot of yard work, but I’m not used to doing it in a heavy coat while shivering and making cool shapes with my breath.

By this time usually Western Washington has seen at least one record high temperature. This year we have seen NONE to date, and looking at the long range we could go a bit longer.

So, let’s have a little fun. On the right hand side there’s a poll where you can submit your answer to the question: “When Will We See Record Warmth?”  Cast your vote! I plan on having some fun with the polls weekly. We’ll see who’s right when we see our first record high of 2009.

We saw a mix of clouds, sun and rain with even a little bit of hail mixed in some locations. Tomorrow will be more on the wet side with plenty of cloud cover, but the air mass will be a little cool to start with so some higher hills around the Kitsap area could see some rain/wet snow in the morning, but it’ll just be cold rain in the later morning through the rest of the day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s.

An equal mix of clouds, sun and showers will be the theme for Thursday, but the atmosphere will be quite unstable so we could have a little more hail to deal with. Highs will be close to 50º.

A ridge sets up shop Friday diminishing the showers and clearing the skies. In fact, Saturday looks partly to mostly sunny. Let’s hope that doesn’t change…I have a bad feeling it will. Sunday will be more on the cloudy side but it’ll be dry and temperatures will be milder than they have been in the low to mid 50s, which is closer to normal.

Beyond Sunday we do the whole clouds, sun and showers thing over again.

For those having a hard time deciding when we will see record warmth, last year we saw a record tie of 77º on April 12th. So far we’ve been following in the footsteps of spring 2008 so maybe April will be the month? We’ll find out soon enough :)

Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

7 DAY FORECAST

70


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