Although our little corner of the world has enjoyed nothing but
sunny skies and unseasonably mild temperatures lately, many areas
across our marvelous country can’t quite say the same.
In fact, according to a news release from AccuWeather.com, as of
March 25th, nearly 50% of the nation was still covered in snow,
which is a dramatic increase compared to this time last year:
It has no doubt been a stormy and somewhat snowy winter across
much of the U.S., but not everyone expected it to turn out that
way. I’m sure many of you remember the “El Nino scare of 2012,”
when many of us (or maybe just me?) started to worry we wouldn’t
have a lot of snow and would therefore be subject to drought
conditions come summer time.
But the mountain snow pack report as of March 1st reveals
there’s actually very little to worry about:
It also appears the water supply is right on track:
Then again, we also had a very different winter than most of
Western Washington. Kitsap County experienced an anomalously snowy
first half of winter, with some areas such as Seabeck and Cushman
receiving as much as 30 inches of snow in December.
So disregarding our rather lame end to winter, it was a wet,
snowy season over much of the country. And I guess at the end of
the day, snow fell where it really mattered: In the mountains.
Have a great day,
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Good afternoon, everyone! Hope you’ve had sufficient time to dry
off because we have more storm systems and downright cold weather
on tap after this short commercial break (meaning today ). Included in this forecast is some
more mountain snow showers! In fact, take a look at this picture
taken yesterday afternoon:
That’s right! Those are snowflakes falling at Stevens Pass. And
sure enough, the forecast for the next week includes a chance for
snow every day. So let’s hope this isn’t a bad omen for winter
Now, with the weather behaving the way it has the past several
days, I got curious and took a sneak peek at what the projected
weather pattern will be like on Halloween. Of course we must
remember it’s a long range forecast, but Halloween is becoming less
and less long range as the days go by (imagine that!).
Needless to say, those little costumes portraying ghouls and
goblins (or
Justin Bieber if you live in Tacoma) may need to be covered
with a little rain jacket. Luckily, the current forecast calls for
a wet Halloween day, but a chilly, somewhat dry night. Bring the
umbrella just in case, though
That’s a relief! I need an umbrella to match my weatherman
costume, anyway!
Stay warm and dry, folks!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Ghoulish complaints? Send them my
way at: forecastingkitsap@live.com
This is a picture I took during the fall
season in Franschhoek, South Africa. This is perhaps one of the
most beautiful places I have ever seen!
Here it is! It’s taken me long enough, but I’m ready to release
my official Fall 2012 forecast. I’ll issue my Winter 2012/2013
forecast in early December.
As always, before the forecast begins, there are a few things to
remember. It’s only a matter of time before someone comments:
“Meteorologists can’t even forecast 5 days out, what makes them
think they can forecast 3 months out?” There is a clear difference
between climatic averages and daily weather forecasting. One
expounds on year to year averages (climatology)
while the other predicts specifics usually no more
than two weeks out (weather forecasters). Click
here to read more about the difference.
In long range weather forecasting, some feel it is important to
use analogs. Analogs are past years that exhibit
some similar weather activity to the current year, and as a result
weather forecasters try to match up the past with the present
to see if there’s some type of correlation or pattern occurring.
More often than not it’s just a guide, but sometimes history does
repeat itself.
Other reliable pieces of data essential for producing a long
range forecast is the ONI, or Oceanic Nino Index to track what El
Nino, La Nina or neutral years in the past match up similarly to
the present day. The records I have go all the way back to
1950. Solar activity can be another major factor to the weather
over the years, but I haven’t weighted that heavily enough in my
forecast mainly because of the lack of data. Lastly, I used the PDO
readings (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) to finalize my findings.
So with all the above points in mind, let’s get our hands dirty
with some more specific, technical information. I. CPC
ANALOGS
Although hardly the most reliable or trustworthy analogs, I have
been tracking the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) over the past
month to get an idea of what kinds of analogs they’ve been matching
their daily long range forecast updates with. Over the past month I
have noticed a few recurring years (from most common to least
common):
2002-2003
1965-1966
2006-2007
1951-1952
Again, the CPC analogs change every day, but these years have
proven the most consistent.
II. THE
OCEANIC NINO INDEX (EL NINO/LA NINA YEARS SINCE
1950)
As explained a while back, the
ONI tells me what years were El Nino (red), La Nina (blue) or
neutral (plain). Of course, the higher the number the stronger the
event. I took my 4 most frequent analog years (1951, 1965, 2002 and
2006) and compared their ONI readings with our ONI trend. Both the
winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were La Nina years and we are
currently sitting at neutral, so I went out to find some years with
2 back-to-back La Nina’s followed by a neutral/weakly positive El
Nino year. These are the years I found
1951-1952
1965-1966 (this one wasn’t preceded by a back-to-back Nina, but
otherwise the numbers match well)
2006-2007 (similar story to 1965-1966)
III. STATE OF
THE PDO (PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION)
The PDO is the surface temperatures of the Pacific, north of 20°
N. We are currently in a sharply cool (or negative) phase
and we’ve been that way for almost 2 1/2 years straight! This plays
a big part in our weather, so I set out to see which of the above
analogs matched our current PDO phase (FYI, the PDO number for
August was -1.93!) Although none of the analogs matched up quite to
this years negativity, the remaining analogs seemed close enough,
especially 1951 which registered a -1.37 reading in August.
IV. LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR
FALL 2012
Whew! You’re still with me! Good for you! I hope you’ve learned
as much as I have along the way. Long range forecasting is a fun,
but tedious science. I consider myself a beginner, but the more I
study and try my hand at long range forecasting, the better I
expect to become. With that being said, my top 3 analogs for the
Fall of 2012 in the Northwest is 1951, 1965 and 2006.
I have weighted my forecast heavily as a combination of those
three years, although it obviously won’t play out as a carbon copy.
These analogs just provide me with a credible basis. Also, just to
note, the 1981-2010 temp/precip averages constitute what’s above,
near or below average.
First off, here’s a composite map of my 3 main analogs.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM OCTOBER-DECEMBER
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FROM OCTOBER-DECEMBER
So right off the bat, it looks like from October-December this
year, we have a decent chance of averaging slightly above normal in
the temperature department and near normal to slightly above normal
in the precipitation department.
Contrary to a lot of fall forecasts out there, it just doesn’t
look like the month for big temperature spreads or anomalies.
Overall it looks like we’ll experience a much tamer and slightly
warmer than normal October, on average. Expect the Cascades and
Olympics to be seeing some snowfall this month as we could get
several bouts with cold air, making the lowlands and the mountains
chilly at times. Other than a few cold spurts, it’ll generally be a
comfortable October, a month we usually have major wind or rain
storms in.
November will be our transition month. We’ll notice temperatures
getting colder with many “first frosts” popping up around the
peninsula. The most notable thing about November will be all the
rain. Usually November is a wet month, but this year it’s projected
to be quite wet. Temperatures will hover around normal for the
month, but enough warmer, Pineapple Express-type rain storms could
nudge the temperature up a tad. The jet stream will not have
responded to the El Nino atmosphere quite yet, so expect a lot of
cloudy, rainy days. The snow chance is up to 40%, meaning most of
the month it will likely be too mild for snow, but we could have a
few bouts of it towards the end of the month.
Even the research I’ve conducted corresponds well with a colder
than average December. I’m not sure if I agree with the “much
colder” than normal forecast put out by The Weather Channel, but
either way it’ll be a chilly month. It’ll be drier than November,
but still wetter than your average December. This will surely bode
well for the mountains as well as lowland snow fans, as I see the
very realistic potential for some arctic air intrusions/snow days
during this month. It would be impossible to say how much, but with
a forecast for above average precipitation, I’d say there’s a
decent chance for SOME sticking snow.
*Left bar: temperatures; Right bar: precipitation
Well there you have it! It’s difficult and practically futile to
predict any windstorms, snowstorms, ice storms, etc in these long
range forecasts. All we need is a general idea of what it’s looking
like all things considered. Of course there are other factors that
play into our weather here, so it’ll be fun to check back and see
how I did!
Please feel free to use the comment section below or shoot me an
e-mail about what you see. Have a great day everyone!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
forecastingkitsap@live.com
P.S. I’ll post the updated 7 day forecast later tonight
Hello everyone! I’ve been meaning to issue a fall forecast of my
own for the past couple weeks, but one thing has piled on
another and I haven’t completed my draft! However, by Wednesday
you’ll see the final results of what I am observing and what I
think that will mean for you in the coming months.
In the mean time, I thought many of you would like to know the
Weather Channel’s take on the situation since, after all, they are
slightly more well known, credible and famous than myself But I’d sure like to duel it out with
them when it comes to predicting Kitsap’s weather!
Ahem…where were we? Oh yes. The Weather Channel. In a news
release just hours ago, Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist of
Weather Services International (WSI), expounds on the ever
declining El Nino and how it may actually play the opposite effect
than first anticipated. This means much of the west could be caught
in a chilly early season grip while the eastern states could bask
in above to much above normal temperatures.
In fact, December is projected to average “much below normal” in
the Northwest, much to the pleasure of skiers and snowboarders
here! (By the way, “normal” is considered anything higher than the
1981-2010 historical average)
Take from this what you will. It IS a 3 month long range
forecast after all:
(We’re having issues with the link, so you will have to copy and
paste this into the address bar. Sorry for the inconvenience!)
As for us in the present day? Well…I don’t know how many ways I
can present it to you without it sounds monotonous. The next 7 days looks pretty typical of
late September: morning clouds, drizzle, partial clearing in the
afternoon and highs reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will
be the case until about Thursday when a weak ridge of high pressure
builds in and boosts temperatures up a notch into the low to mid
70s.
The long range is interesting, but I prefer to leave it at that.
There are certainly signs for a pattern change once we enter
October, but let’s not get too carried away
For now, enjoy what we have! Several forecasting agencies don’t
seem to think it’ll last much longer
Colorado ski lift photo posted
by Flickr user dkwonsh.
I know, we haven’t even had a true summer yet and we’re already
talking about fall! But for what it’s worth, this may settle some
fears that a looming El Niño will destroy all hope for skiing,
snowboarding or school closures this year.
About a week ago I produced a weather post on why we may be in
for an
Indian summer. While I still feel we have a good chance at
seeing a warm start to fall, some weather sources are saying it
won’t last long. In fact, early predictions say the western United
States may be in for a cold, wet and snowy (in higher elevations,
of course ) autumn season. One of those weather
sources is long range forecasting website Accuweather.com:
It will start out wet during the early and middle of the
fall in the Northwest.
“I think it will start out wetter, but get drier in the late
fall season, which could set up for a fairly dry or at least
below-normal winter season across areas like Seattle and Spokane,”
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok
said.
Wet weather will shift farther south across much of
California during the middle to latter part of the season. A wet
late-fall is in store for San Francisco. Increased snowfall
expected in the Sierra is good news for California water supply,
following a significant snow drought last winter. Read the full
article
here
The shift to drier weather in the late fall season would reflect
the growing El
Niño as well. This past Friday I sat down with Scott Sistek,
weather producer at KOMO 4 News, as well as Steve Pool, KOMO 4
evening weather forecaster. Among many topics of discussion, one of
them was the developing El Niño. I asked Scott if it’s looking
healthy enough to play a big impact in our winter weather this
year. He responded that it not only looks healthy, but also big. El
Niño and La Niña weather patterns are divided into three groups:
weak, moderate and strong. Scott believes we could be in for a
moderate El Niño this winter, which typically means mild, dry and
relatively calm.
Obviously nothing is set in stone yet, but already it sounds
like an interesting couple of months ahead…weather-wise,
anyway!
In the short term, however, the weather will be anything but
interesting. In fact, it will be pretty typical of early August.
The sun will gradually reappear through the end of the week into
the weekend and high temperatures will rise to the upper 70s and
lower 80s. After a brief marine push Monday of next week, a
strengthening ridge should serve warm and sunny weather for the
rest of the week.
**A SEVERELY BORING WEATHER WARNING has been
issued by the KWS (Kitsap Weather Service) and will remain in
effect until…further notice. Please stay tuned for further
warnings, advisories or immediate evacuation plans to the country’s
mid-section for some adrenaline-fuelin’ storm
chasin’.**
Wow folks…we’ve certainly hit a dead end in the road to active
weather. To pour more salt on our already gaping wound this winter
in the PNW lowlands, take a look at some of these impressive
weather events from the eastern 2/3rds of the country this past
month (ending yesterday):
12/4/2009: Earliest ever snowfall in Houston
12/8-10/2009: Blizzard in the Plains States, Midwest and parts of
Canada
12/18-20/2009: Mid-Atlantic/southern New England blizzard.
Washington, DC (DCA) had its snowiest December on record.
12/24-27, 2009: Blizzard in the Plains States and Midwest
12/26-27/2009: Biggest snowfall in 130 years in St. Petersburg,
Russia
12/31-1/4/2009: Major snowstorm in northern New England and parts
of Canada. Burlington had its biggest snowfall on record
1/1-5/2010: Major lake effect snow outbreak
1/3-4/2010: Major snowfall in parts of East Asia. Beijing had its
biggest snowfall since 1951 and Seoul had its biggest snowfall on
record
You have GOT to be kidding me. Snowfall in flippin’ Houston but
not Seattle?! Heck, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Tallahassee have
seen some sticking snowfall (1”<) this winter. So depressing.
Does this have anything to do with the El Nino out there?
Eh…kinda, but we haven’t seen El Nino’s typical effects at all this
season so far. We’ve had numerous wet, rainy days and temperatures
have remained pretty seasonable, spiking to above normal levels
from time to time, but nothing so out of the ordinary it would make
headlines (For those confused, the December cold snap was,
technically, still in the fall season. I’m talking about the
weather “post 21st of December”.)
El Nino probably is messing with our winter right now despite
it’s masked effects of clouds and rain this time around (2006-2007
wasn’t exactly a typical El Nino either). But with it’s current
moderate to strong status, our chances of lowland snow and cold are
appearing more dismal by the day. And looking at the latest long
range models, a “warm and dry pattern” touted by many
meteorologists at the start of the fall season doesn’t look to be
verifying well for the PacNW either, especially after ending one of
the coldest Decembers since 1990. Granted it was dry, our wet
pattern has revamped and 2009 ended about an inch above normal for
rainfall. Typical of an El Nino? Nope.
So the $1,000,000 question is this: what’s in store for the rest
of the winter? How will Vancouver B.C. look for the Olympics? First
answer: not so good. Virtually every weather model a weather junkie
can look at is proclaiming “Rain! Seasonable temperatures! Mist!
Fog! Low clouds! Depression!” until at least the 21st of the month.
But, as I expected in my 2009-2010 forecast, El Nino will be more
pronouncly felt around here by the end of this month into February
and March, so that means more snoozer weather and bad news for the
Olympics.
I’m not saying all hope is lost for a dramatic pattern change
between now and February, but the crystal ball looks anything but
optomistic. Hmmm…maybe I’m being too opinionated here. I’m sure
SOME of you like this kind of (tortureous) weather!
Until further notice…let the SEVERELY BORING WEATHER
WARNING continue
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Winter 2009-2010: Get Ready
for a Winter of Extremes!
**Follow me on Twitter!
@kitsapweather
(twitter.com/kitsapweather)**
Alright…what’s it gonna be? Snowy? Cold? Warm? Wet? Dry? We’ll
find out after this long commercial break!
Just kidding After months of research and
preparation I have finally completed my winter outlook for the
nation with specifics for Western Washington and Oregon. I realize
I have readers from all across the country, so if you would like
any specifics for your area that are not covered in this blog post,
feel free to drop me a comment or e-mail and I’d be happy to
provide some insight.
A little disclaimer here: this forecast should not be taken as
gospel. It is quite common for people to take forecasts like this
and expect them to verify word for word. Long range forecasting is
an imperfect science, but I believe there are enough signals out
there that can point to a long range pattern or trend
developing.
Such is the case this winter. We’ve (the
Northwestern region of the U.S.) had a ridiculously
wet fall after an anomalously dry late spring/summer/early fall.
However, storms have been in abundance since May with several
thunderstorms/funnel clouds reported all over the Northwest. This
is highly unusual. Western Washington averages about 2 funnel
clouds/tornadoes a year…we had 2 in just 2 months.
NATIONALLY
Another noticeable quality about the weather lately is the
extreme nature of the weather trends. I expect this same pattern to
continue through Winter 2009-2010. The nation as a whole will
see more snow and ice storms than usual, particularly in the
country’s mid-section. The East and West Coasts, however, will
average about normal storm-wise, though this can be a bit
misleading when just looking at the maps and I’ll explain in just a
moment.
The southern portions of the U.S. will experience more tranquil
weather than the rest of the country, especially in the southeast.
Normally an El Nino winter would equate to cooler and wetter than
normal conditions in the southeast. Not this year. According to my
research, expect drier and milder conditions with mild, but wet
conditions in the south/southwest. Overall, severe
storms will be lacking all across the south.
From coast to coast, the cold and warm air will be distributed
fairly evenly, however the east coast looks to be a bit more prone
to ridging and mild weather, especially in January.
Overall, expect a colder and wetter than normal winter for much
of the nation excepting the far west and east coasts and southern
tier states.
LOCALLY
My forecast for the Northwest from
December-February is calling for extremes in
temperatures and precipitation, with stretches of unusually cold
and wet weather for the first half with unusually dry and mild
weather the 2nd half. When all is said
and done, both ends of the spectrum will be so extreme, it will
even out to “average”, This winter will likely be
warmer and drier than the last 2 winters, however.
Mountain snow fall
will be above normal, averaging anywhere from 120-150% of normal.
Lowland snow fall looks to be above normal as well with a
Seattle/Portland snowfall depth average of
8”.
Despite the moderate El Nino, the Pacific SST’s
(Sea Surface Temperatures) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
are in a negative phase and look to balance between weakly negative
to neutral through the season. That along with an unusually strong
Pacific Jet could very well increase our chances of
receiving greater amounts of snow and rain than in a typical
El Nino year, at least during the first half of winter (Dec and
Jan).
My main analogs are 2006, 1968 and 1965, 2006
being weighted the heaviest. These analogs match closely with our
most recent summer/fall pattern and I believe they will continue
this winter.
DECEMBER: This month looks to
feature less rain than November, but it will still average close to
normal precipitation wise. Temperatures will be fairly chilly,
however. I expect the monthly temperature to average below normal
between 38-39 degrees. The month as a whole will feature a
handful of dry, but chilly, overcast and sunny days, so there will
be plenty of opportunities to get outside! I also see the
strong potential for storminess at the beginning of the month,
but the Jet should relax as the month wears on.
(Temperature Average: 38.5 degrees–1.5 degrees below normal.
Precipitation Average: 5”–0.62” below average) Month Snow Chance:
80%
JANUARY: This will likely be our
most active month. I expect our first real cold outbreak to
occur during this month along with periods of snow.
However, once the cold arrives I see it being a ”dry
cold” with most snow occurring during transitional
phases (before/after warm air overrides cold air). I
also expect a fair amount of storminess this month as the
Pacific Jet kicks back up again. Towards the end of the month,
however, El Nino will really ramp up with an impressive amount of
warmth overtaking a good portion of the nation, especially the
Northwest. Temperatures will average near normal with
precipitation above normal. (Temperature Average: 40.0 degrees–0.9
degrees below normal. Precipitation: 6.50”–1.37” above normal)
Month Snow Chance: 90%
FEBRUARY: Looking for a break
from the rain, cold and snow? This month will be a classic El Nino
month: very mild and dry. I see a lot of record high temperatures
being broken this month. A lot of folks will likely be tricked into
thinking spring is coming early as many will note the lack of
precipitation and cold weather throughout the month. Overall, a
“breather” month for non-active weather fans (Temperature Average: 45.5 degrees–2.1
degrees above normal. Precipitation Average: 1.50”–2.6” below
average) Month Snow Chance: 30%
MARCH: The weather will ramp up
again after a “brief” lull. A few early month storms will come
crashing into the Northwest, followed by some anomalous cold and
snow. By mid month, however, we should dry out and warm up, forcing
monthly average temperatures to end up above normal. Precipitation,
however, looks above normal. (Temperature: 47.2 degrees–1 degree
above average. Precipitation: 4.50”–0.75” above normal) Month Snow
Chance: 70%
So there you have it! The pendulum will continue
to swing this winter. We’ll check back in April to see how I
did!
Comments, questions and/or suggestions are always
welcome so feel free!
I guess the NOAA is going to release
their winter outlook sometime later today or tomorrow, but we all
know what they’re going to say: “above normal temperatures with
below normal precipitation” in the Pacific Northwest. And you know
what? For the past several years they’ve been blowtorching the
Northwest, only to get blowtorched themselves year after year.
So the government-based weather organization is going to get a
bit of a snub from me because they’ve flubbed way too many times to
be taken seriously. And while AccuWeather.com is not exactly the
best source for long range weather (in my opinion, of course) they
tend to be a little more accurate. Here’s their latest 2009-2010
weather outlook for temperatures and precipitation:
Hey snow lovers…can you say “Ouch”?! If this forecast comes
true, we would experience the dullest winter since 2002-2003. I
guess given what we’ve been slipping and sliding through since
2006, we’re about due. But still…I’m not liking this forecast
I have to say, though, I’m not exactly agreeing with this
forecast, and that isn’t because I’m biased. AccuWeather is east
coast based, meaning it spends most of its time forecasting for the
east coast, and very little time on the west coast, which is why
their forecast accuracy for us isn’t necessarily the best. My
winter outlook will come out later this month into November, but I
must say, my fall forecast is verifying pretty well so far!
Moving on, within the past 24 hours Bremerton Airport has picked
up 0.41” of rain! It was an extremely wet and dangerous morning. I
hyrdoplaned into work! Literally…I almost wiped out on the
highway…not fun. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!
More heavy rain is in the forecast later tomorrow through Friday
before lighter, normal Washington rain returns for the weekend with
sunbreaks.
I’ve been doing a lot of seasonal weather forecasts lately and
frankly I find it really fun. And then, at the end of the season,
we grade the forecasts and see who was most accurate.
The latest winter forecast I’m going to share with you is
downright depressing if you are a cold and snow fan and absolutely
heaven if you are a fan of the dominate weather pattern this
month.
There is a European weather model called the ECMWF and it has
daily, weekly, monthly and seasonal weather updates each month. Why
do we care about some European model? Because it predicts weather
for our area and has proven itself fairly accurate, mostly in
the short term. For the third month in a row, the ECMWF is
predicting what weather geeks call a “blowtorch” and dry
winter.
The definition of blowtorch is simple: VERY warm. The
information from this weather model comes from Brett Anderson,
Candian Long Range Forecaster on AccuWeather.com. This is the
forecast:
October
Colder than normal from the Northwest Territories down through
northern BC and the northern Prairies.
November
Fairly zonal (west to east) flow across southern Canada with a lack
of extremes in terms of temperatures and precipitation. The model
basically does not commit to anything.
December
Fairly dry and mild pattern over most of western Canada. This also
includes the Pacific Northwest.
January
–Unusually mild from Alaska through the Yukon
Territory and down through BC and the Northwestern states.
–Rainfall and/or snowfall below normal from BC through the Pacific
Northwest and into Alberta. February (model showing a continuing extreme
pattern)
Much above-normal temperatures from interior Alaska through most of
western Canada and into the Pacific Northwest.
March
Model showing major blocking pattern from the North Pole down
through northern Canada.
Still above-normal temperatures over BC, but not as much so
compared to January and February.
This forecast doesn’t exactly give me a warm and fuzzy feeling,
being a fan of storms, snow and cold temperatures. If this forecast
model proves right it would be a textbook version of what El Ninos
typically bring as far as winter patterns here. Can things change?
Absolutely.
It’s been a while since I’ve commented on the El Niño brewing in
the equatorial Pacific Ocean and figured it’d be a good time to
give a brief update on it’s strength and position. The NOAA gave an
update on the strength of the El Niño on September 10th and had
this to say about it:
“A majority of the model forecasts…suggest El Niño will
reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere
fall …Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño…during the
fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that
El Niño will most likely peak at moderate strength. “
This is pretty obvious when we look at the latest sea surface
temperature map which was updated today. The El Niño along the
equtaor is glowing!:
Certainly not encouraging news for those hoping for a stellar
ski/snow season but we must also remember the PDO and solar cycles
also play a big part in the weather here and sometimes El Niño or
even La Niña doesn’t act it’s typical way because the
atmosphere just isn’t supporting it.
The winter of 1968-1969 featured the snowiest winter on record
in the Seattle area with 60”+ of snow by the end of the season. To
put that in perspective, imagine last winter times two. Why am I
talking about that winter? Because it too was a moderate,
west-based El Niño and that season wasn’t supposed to be as good as
it was. But the PDO was just negative enough to give the Pacific
Northwest a fighting chance.
IF this El Niño acts it’s typical way, we can expect a very dry
and mild winter ahead with very little snow and a
disappointing 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics. But there are still
signs that this winter will not be a typical El Niño winter, just
like 2006-2007 wasn’t.
Stay tuned for more El Niño updates…for the short term, we
can expect sunnier and warmer weather tomorrow (today’s
forecast flopped! Sorry about that!) with more seasonable weather
throughout the week and cooler weather arriving by this
weekend.
Are the 80s gone for good? Maybe…but maybe not. If 80s do
return, we can’t blame it on El Niño because it has very
little effect on fall weather patterns around here!
). Included in this forecast is some
more mountain snow showers! In fact, take a look at this picture
taken yesterday afternoon:
Scripps Interactive Newspapers Group
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