I don’t imagine it’s too early to talk about Thanksgiving, is
it? I mean, after all it is almost 9 days away. I am very excited
to celebrate Thanksgiving with my family after two years of not
celebrating it at all. South Africans are very gracious, thankful
people, but for obvious reasons the Thanksgiving holiday isn’t
really a priority for them 😉 In fact, Thanksgiving 2010 was spent
in 115 degree weather with a horrible stomach flu. There’s a really
funny story surrounding that experience, but now is not the time or
place…
ANYWAY, with the holidays quickly approaching many of you are
eager for some travel plans. “What will the mountain passes look
like?” “Will we have to roast our turkey on an open fire because of
an approaching windstorm that will knock out power to hundreds of
thousands?” Whatever your questions may be, I have answers! Well,
tentative answers 🙂
I would probably venture to guess most of you haven’t exactly
needed a meteorologist (or aspiring meteorologist!) to give you the
latest forecast. I mean, let’s be honest here: it’s November in
western Washington! And with no significant windstorms or arctic
outbreaks in our record books so far, many of you have either been
happily or miserably bored.
What if I told you Thanksgiving Day will more than likely be
rainy with highs in the mid to upper 40s? While the lowlands will
be putting windshield wipers to work, those traveling over the
mountain passes will have to put their snow chains to work! Periods
of snow, heavy at times, will continue to fall in the Cascades
between now and the Thanksgiving break. Temperatures will be fairly
close to freezing, however, so most of what you encounter on the
roadways, if you must travel to higher elevations, will be
slush.
And then the trusty long range forecast! I’ll try to contain my
enthusiasm, but let’s just say things look to be getting fairly
chilly and moist towards the beginning of December. This is
actually the first time this season I’ve seen any potential for
lowland snow in the long range forecast, so if you happen to love a
snowy scene right before Christmas, it may be coming!
In the meantime, try to make the best of the rain! It could
always be worse 🙂
It is downright cold outside today! Temperature gauges all
across the peninsula are pulling some unseasonably cold readings
for this time of year with 43 degrees and 0.10” in the rain gauge.
Perfect chili weather if you ask me, but some of you
are…gasp!…complaining about this weather!
One moment we’re all dying of thirst because of the “drought of
the century”, and the next we’re scrambling to build our own arks!
I understand the change in weather has been traumatic for some of
you and I think that’s why Mother Nature is going to put the
current weather pattern on repeat for the next couple weeks so we
don’t suffer another major shock to the system 😉
But all jokes aside, the jet stream doesn’t look any weaker over
the next 14 days. Temperatures will warm slightly, yes, but the
fire hose is aimed right at us, providing one storm system after
another access to the great Northwest and in turn, giving the
mountains a nice, pre-season snow pack.
If you’d like an even more specific look inside the long range
forecast, look no further than the 7 day forecast. Just take this
weeks worth of weather and duplicate it. Aside from some scattered
sunbreaks mid week and towards the weekend, expect mostly cloudy
skies, showers, and highs in the 40s to low 50s through Sunday.
Meanwhile, highs in the 20s with persistent snow is in the forecast
for Stevens Pass!
All in all, yes a rather boring forecast all things considered,
but let us all remember what life was like several weeks ago 😉
Have a great day!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? E-mail me at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
Good afternoon, everyone! Hope you’ve had sufficient time to dry
off because we have more storm systems and downright cold weather
on tap after this short commercial break (meaning today ;)).
Included in this forecast is some more mountain snow showers! In
fact, take a look at this picture taken yesterday afternoon:
That’s right! Those are snowflakes falling at Stevens Pass. And
sure enough, the forecast for the next week includes a chance for
snow every day. So let’s hope this isn’t a bad omen for winter
😉
Now, with the weather behaving the way it has the past several
days, I got curious and took a sneak peek at what the projected
weather pattern will be like on Halloween. Of course we must
remember it’s a long range forecast, but Halloween is becoming less
and less long range as the days go by (imagine that!).
Needless to say, those little costumes portraying ghouls and
goblins (or
Justin Bieber if you live in Tacoma) may need to be covered
with a little rain jacket. Luckily, the current forecast calls for
a wet Halloween day, but a chilly, somewhat dry night. Bring the
umbrella just in case, though 🙂
That’s a relief! I need an umbrella to match my weatherman
costume, anyway! 😉
Stay warm and dry, folks!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Ghoulish complaints? Send them my
way at: forecastingkitsap@live.com
Have you ever watched a great movie or television show and your
favorite character gets killed off? You know it’s a movie, but in
watching it you actually feel something for the characters
involved. My brother-in-law and I were finishing some episodes of
The Walking Dead on Netflix and a character I had grown to
really like got…well…devoured by zombies. As infuriating as that
was, I had to remind myself that it’s JUST a movie.
However, I woke up this morning to find a headline that kills
off a character I didn’t care so much for: EL NINO. And luckily
this time, we’re not in a movie. Although this weather pattern will
likely resurrect at some point and devour every skier and
snowboarder’s dreams of a winter wonderland like a flesh-eating
zombie, at least for now we could be in the clear.
Sea Surface Temperatures have not been nice to the El Nino and
now we are looking at a period of cooling taking the place of
previous warming in the Pacific. Now, we are not headed towards a
La Nina as of yet, but one thing looks for sure: El Nino will play
a minimal role in our winter, if any.
This of course makes the winter forecast a lot more difficult to
predict. Neutral winters are termed as “wildcard winters” and there
is really no indication either way of what to expect throughout the
winter. The plus side is, it doesn’t look likely we’ll stay in a
persistent ridge and consequent drought for the next six months. If
anything, there are signs this sunny weather pattern will break
down towards the middle of the month.
For now, the current sea surface conditions have little to do
with the weather pattern we’re experiencing now. I think for most
of us, 70+ days of no precipitation is more than just an El
Nino-ish signal, it’s the longest streak of dry weather we’ve had
in at least 50 years. But with the El Nino dying and flattening out
to neutral by month’s end, we should see more seasonable
weather.
In the short term, the forecast remains the same. I feel like
I’m forecasting weather in Southern California: “Mostly sunny…light
winds…comfortable temperatures…” Truly, for the next 7-10 days
there doesn’t appear to be any dramatic changes to the weather
pattern.
This weekend will be slightly warmer and sunnier than first
anticipated, but other than that the forecast remains largely
unchanged. Expect partly sunny skies through next weekend.
Until then, let’s hope this character called “El Nino” in our
weather series doesn’t resurrect any time too soon 😉 Have a great
weekend, everyone!
This is a picture I took during
the fall season in Franschhoek, South Africa. This is perhaps one
of the most beautiful places I have ever seen!
Here it is! It’s taken me long enough, but I’m ready to release
my official Fall 2012 forecast. I’ll issue my Winter 2012/2013
forecast in early December.
As always, before the forecast begins, there are a few things to
remember. It’s only a matter of time before someone comments:
“Meteorologists can’t even forecast 5 days out, what makes them
think they can forecast 3 months out?” There is a clear difference
between climatic averages and daily weather forecasting. One
expounds on year to year averages (climatology)
while the other predicts specifics usually no more
than two weeks out (weather forecasters). Click
here to read more about the difference.
In long range weather forecasting, some feel it is important to
use analogs. Analogs are past years that exhibit
some similar weather activity to the current year, and as a result
weather forecasters try to match up the past with the present
to see if there’s some type of correlation or pattern occurring.
More often than not it’s just a guide, but sometimes history does
repeat itself.
Other reliable pieces of data essential for producing a long
range forecast is the ONI, or Oceanic Nino Index to track what El
Nino, La Nina or neutral years in the past match up similarly to
the present day. The records I have go all the way back to
1950. Solar activity can be another major factor to the weather
over the years, but I haven’t weighted that heavily enough in my
forecast mainly because of the lack of data. Lastly, I used the PDO
readings (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) to finalize my findings.
So with all the above points in mind, let’s get our hands dirty
with some more specific, technical information. I. CPC
ANALOGS
Although hardly the most reliable or trustworthy analogs, I have
been tracking the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) over the past
month to get an idea of what kinds of analogs they’ve been matching
their daily long range forecast updates with. Over the past month I
have noticed a few recurring years (from most common to least
common):
2002-2003
1965-1966
2006-2007
1951-1952
Again, the CPC analogs change every day, but these years have
proven the most consistent.
II. THE
OCEANIC NINO INDEX (EL NINO/LA NINA YEARS SINCE
1950)
As explained a while back, the
ONI tells me what years were El Nino (red), La Nina (blue) or
neutral (plain). Of course, the higher the number the stronger the
event. I took my 4 most frequent analog years (1951, 1965, 2002 and
2006) and compared their ONI readings with our ONI trend. Both the
winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were La Nina years and we are
currently sitting at neutral, so I went out to find some years with
2 back-to-back La Nina’s followed by a neutral/weakly positive El
Nino year. These are the years I found
1951-1952
1965-1966 (this one wasn’t preceded by a back-to-back Nina, but
otherwise the numbers match well)
2006-2007 (similar story to 1965-1966)
III. STATE OF
THE PDO (PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION)
The PDO is the surface temperatures of the Pacific, north of 20°
N. We are currently in a sharply cool (or negative) phase
and we’ve been that way for almost 2 1/2 years straight! This plays
a big part in our weather, so I set out to see which of the above
analogs matched our current PDO phase (FYI, the PDO number for
August was -1.93!) Although none of the analogs matched up quite to
this years negativity, the remaining analogs seemed close enough,
especially 1951 which registered a -1.37 reading in August.
IV. LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR
FALL 2012
Whew! You’re still with me! Good for you! I hope you’ve learned
as much as I have along the way. Long range forecasting is a fun,
but tedious science. I consider myself a beginner, but the more I
study and try my hand at long range forecasting, the better I
expect to become. With that being said, my top 3 analogs for the
Fall of 2012 in the Northwest is 1951, 1965 and 2006.
I have weighted my forecast heavily as a combination of those
three years, although it obviously won’t play out as a carbon copy.
These analogs just provide me with a credible basis. Also, just to
note, the 1981-2010 temp/precip averages constitute what’s above,
near or below average.
First off, here’s a composite map of my 3 main analogs.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM OCTOBER-DECEMBER
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FROM OCTOBER-DECEMBER
So right off the bat, it looks like from October-December this
year, we have a decent chance of averaging slightly above normal in
the temperature department and near normal to slightly above normal
in the precipitation department.
Contrary to a lot of fall forecasts out there, it just doesn’t
look like the month for big temperature spreads or anomalies.
Overall it looks like we’ll experience a much tamer and slightly
warmer than normal October, on average. Expect the Cascades and
Olympics to be seeing some snowfall this month as we could get
several bouts with cold air, making the lowlands and the mountains
chilly at times. Other than a few cold spurts, it’ll generally be a
comfortable October, a month we usually have major wind or rain
storms in.
November will be our transition month. We’ll notice temperatures
getting colder with many “first frosts” popping up around the
peninsula. The most notable thing about November will be all the
rain. Usually November is a wet month, but this year it’s projected
to be quite wet. Temperatures will hover around normal for the
month, but enough warmer, Pineapple Express-type rain storms could
nudge the temperature up a tad. The jet stream will not have
responded to the El Nino atmosphere quite yet, so expect a lot of
cloudy, rainy days. The snow chance is up to 40%, meaning most of
the month it will likely be too mild for snow, but we could have a
few bouts of it towards the end of the month.
Even the research I’ve conducted corresponds well with a colder
than average December. I’m not sure if I agree with the “much
colder” than normal forecast put out by The Weather Channel, but
either way it’ll be a chilly month. It’ll be drier than November,
but still wetter than your average December. This will surely bode
well for the mountains as well as lowland snow fans, as I see the
very realistic potential for some arctic air intrusions/snow days
during this month. It would be impossible to say how much, but with
a forecast for above average precipitation, I’d say there’s a
decent chance for SOME sticking snow.
*Left bar: temperatures; Right bar: precipitation
Well there you have it! It’s difficult and practically futile to
predict any windstorms, snowstorms, ice storms, etc in these long
range forecasts. All we need is a general idea of what it’s looking
like all things considered. Of course there are other factors that
play into our weather here, so it’ll be fun to check back and see
how I did!
Please feel free to use the comment section below or shoot me an
e-mail about what you see. Have a great day everyone!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
forecastingkitsap@live.com
P.S. I’ll post the updated 7 day forecast later tonight 🙂
Hello everyone! I’ve been meaning to issue a fall forecast of my
own for the past couple weeks, but one thing has piled on
another and I haven’t completed my draft! However, by Wednesday
you’ll see the final results of what I am observing and what I
think that will mean for you in the coming months.
In the mean time, I thought many of you would like to know the
Weather Channel’s take on the situation since, after all, they are
slightly more well known, credible and famous than myself 😉 But I’d
sure like to duel it out with them when it comes to predicting
Kitsap’s weather!
Ahem…where were we? Oh yes. The Weather Channel. In a news
release just hours ago, Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist of
Weather Services International (WSI), expounds on the ever
declining El Nino and how it may actually play the opposite effect
than first anticipated. This means much of the west could be caught
in a chilly early season grip while the eastern states could bask
in above to much above normal temperatures.
In fact, December is projected to average “much below normal” in
the Northwest, much to the pleasure of skiers and snowboarders
here! (By the way, “normal” is considered anything higher than the
1981-2010 historical average)
Take from this what you will. It IS a 3 month long range
forecast after all:
(We’re having issues with the link, so you will have to copy and
paste this into the address bar. Sorry for the inconvenience!)
As for us in the present day? Well…I don’t know how many ways I
can present it to you without it sounds monotonous. 😉 The next 7
days looks pretty typical of late September: morning clouds,
drizzle, partial clearing in the afternoon and highs reaching the
upper 60s and lower 70s. This will be the case until about Thursday
when a weak ridge of high pressure builds in and boosts
temperatures up a notch into the low to mid 70s.
The long range is interesting, but I prefer to leave it at that.
There are certainly signs for a pattern change once we enter
October, but let’s not get too carried away 🙂
For now, enjoy what we have! Several forecasting agencies don’t
seem to think it’ll last much longer 😉
A Forecasting Kitsap reader commented a week or so ago about
whether the idea of seasons lagging from year to year is accurate.
For instance, have you noticed the summer doesn’t really start
until July? And for the past several years it hasn’t ended until
late September? Or doesn’t it seem winter won’t really kick in
until January and somehow extends until May? Of course I don’t have
any scientific information to back the theory up, but somehow I
wouldn’t be surprised to learn that we need to tweak our winter and
summer solstice a bit, at least here in the Northwest.
This theory is ringing particularly true this year. Remember
June? How could you not?! It was my first full month back from
South Africa and I was shivering from head to toe. Now, it could
partially be due to the reason I had just come back from South
Africa, but still! It was a dark, wet month. Let’s now compare that
to our current state. The temperature right now is 79 degrees! In
fact, 12 days out of our 17 so far this month
have registered with a high of 75 degrees or above. Then when
you add the fact that roughly 85% of the days this month have
featured clear skies, the jaws continue to drop.
So now let’s look into the crystal ball and see what’s in store.
Are you loving this weather? If so, you are SO spoiled as Mother
Nature has deaf ears to all pleas and cries of fall weather fans.
Here’s a current look at the 6-10 day forecast from the CPC:
That massive red gob over the Northwest is not usually something
snow fans want to see during the winter, although at this time of
year we might as well use it up. The above map is color coated
depending on % chance. So for instance, we have a 50% chance of
registering above normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days. For
those who are interested, the 8-14 day forecast, for what it’s
worth, is the same.
The accuracy of the CPC has certainly increased since I’ve
been gone, so I’d bet good money this verifies. So what does that
translate for us? Remember, just because the map says “50% chance
of above normal temperatures” does not mean we’ll be exceeding 80
every day between now and October. In fact, our daily average high
temperature drops every day, even if only a half of a degree. So
realistically 80 degrees looks less and less likely each day. Also,
these maps don’t tell you how much above average we could be.
With that in mind, latest numbers suggest we’ll eventually fall
into the mid 70s through next week and cool down quite a bit once
October rolls around. It’s hard to say how cool we’ll get, but fall
weather will likely arrive along with October, which is usually the
case.
So let me take a random stab in the dark and guess many of you
are happy to see temperatures in the mid 80s exiting the 7 day
forecast. Did you know Bremerton Airport recorded a high of 88
degrees on Friday? Sea-Tac airport broke a record with 90 degrees.
So I guess my risky prediction still holds: we on the Kitsap
Peninsula will likely not see 90 degrees again
until 2013.
With all this unseasonably warm weather, many of you have been
asking about the state of
El Niño. Perhaps you cold and snow lovers will take solace in a
statement released by the NOAA on September 6th saying:
Most of the dynamical models, along with roughly
one-half of the statistical models, now predict the onset of El
Niño beginning in August-October 2012, persisting through the
remainder of the year…Supported by the model forecasts and the
continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, the official forecast
calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during
September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13. (To
read the full article,
click here!)
The last weak El Niño we had was in 2006-2007, which offered
some record cold, flooding and warmth along with an incredible
skiing year, so the weaker the better! In fact, it’s very probable
we remain “neutral” until the official onset of winter which means
largely a wildcard weather pattern until then. Stay tuned to the
NOAA website for further updates!
The short term looks drastically colder and wetter. You may have
noticed the cooler temperatures and increase in cloud cover today
and it will only get cooler and cloudier from here. Your Sunday
looks mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers increasing in the
evening. Highs will decrease from the upper 70s today to the mid
60s tomorrow.
Monday will be another cool and showery day with highs in the
low and mid 60s. And while these weather days may feel more like a
Washington fall, the skies will clear yet again and highs will
rebound to the mid and upper 70s throughout the week next week. For
most of us, the weather this upcoming week could be termed as
“perfection”.
The long range forecast looks like continued dry and mild
weather with no real end in sight. In fact, by the third week or so
of the month we’ll probably average out in the low to mid 70s for
highs. Overall, we’re looking at quite an impressive streak of mild
fall weather!
Colorado ski lift photo posted
by Flickr user dkwonsh.
I know, we haven’t even had a true summer yet and we’re already
talking about fall! But for what it’s worth, this may settle some
fears that a looming El Niño will destroy all hope for skiing,
snowboarding or school closures this year.
About a week ago I produced a weather post on why we may be in
for an
Indian summer. While I still feel we have a good chance at
seeing a warm start to fall, some weather sources are saying it
won’t last long. In fact, early predictions say the western United
States may be in for a cold, wet and snowy (in higher elevations,
of course ;)) autumn season. One of those weather sources is long
range forecasting website Accuweather.com:
It will start out wet during the early and middle of the
fall in the Northwest.
“I think it will start out wetter, but get drier in the late
fall season, which could set up for a fairly dry or at least
below-normal winter season across areas like Seattle and Spokane,”
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok
said.
Wet weather will shift farther south across much of
California during the middle to latter part of the season. A wet
late-fall is in store for San Francisco. Increased snowfall
expected in the Sierra is good news for California water supply,
following a significant snow drought last winter. Read the full
article
here
The shift to drier weather in the late fall season would reflect
the growing El
Niño as well. This past Friday I sat down with Scott Sistek,
weather producer at KOMO 4 News, as well as Steve Pool, KOMO 4
evening weather forecaster. Among many topics of discussion, one of
them was the developing El Niño. I asked Scott if it’s looking
healthy enough to play a big impact in our winter weather this
year. He responded that it not only looks healthy, but also big. El
Niño and La Niña weather patterns are divided into three groups:
weak, moderate and strong. Scott believes we could be in for a
moderate El Niño this winter, which typically means mild, dry and
relatively calm.
Obviously nothing is set in stone yet, but already it sounds
like an interesting couple of months ahead…weather-wise,
anyway!
In the short term, however, the weather will be anything but
interesting. In fact, it will be pretty typical of early August.
The sun will gradually reappear through the end of the week into
the weekend and high temperatures will rise to the upper 70s and
lower 80s. After a brief marine push Monday of next week, a
strengthening ridge should serve warm and sunny weather for the
rest of the week.
**Get weather updates on Facebook!
www.facebook.com/kitsapweather**
Hello everyone! It’s good to be back. You know how they say real
summer in Western Washington doesn’t occur until after Independence
Day? Well it appears the new normal in these parts is to reverse
the “beginning of summer” from Independence Day to Labor Day.
Interestingly, within the past few years in the Northwest,
August and September have produced some of the warmest weather of
the summer season, with this past September even flinging us well
into the 80s. Why the seasons are lagging a little behind is
definitely a question to ponder, but if this year follows the
pattern of the past few, we may be headed for a warmer and drier
than normal end to summer and fall season.
This is what we call an “indian summer”, which is an
unseasonably warm period of weather in mid autumn usually preceded
by a substantial period of cool weather. Another factor in favor of
this warmer than normal fall forecast is the fact that as we speak
an El Nino is
brewing in the Equatorial Pacific, which could spell warmer and
drier conditions in the Northwest through the winter. Although the
current sea surface temperatures indicate a fairly neutral pattern
as of now, it does have the potential of forming into a full blown
El Nino event.
So while this doesn’t spell good news for you skiers and
snowboarders, it will at least offer some of those summer fans an
opportunity to enjoy a period of warmer weather often missed the
past couple months.
Speaking of warmer weather, there is even more good news for you
summer fans! The next few days will feature more of the same partly
to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low-mid 70s, but Friday
through Sunday look gorgeous as of now (don’t you love that small
caveat: as of now? ;)) with skies clearing and temperatures
rebounding into the upper 70s and low 80s. I’ll keep an eye on the
models, but it could even get warmer than that, so stay tuned!
Sure, the weather does cloud up a bit and turn slightly cooler
for the new week but…let’s just focus on the positives for now
😉
