**UPDATED 5:47 AM= Snow started to fall across the region at about 4:00 this morning. The Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect, but has been extended to 10:00 this morning. Expect anywhere from 1-3″ of snow with lesser amounts near the water. The switchover to rain will still happen, but it will be a bit slower than first anticipated, so prepare accordingly.

Be safe and warm out there!

ORIGINAL POST, 7:00 pm Thursday

The forecast over the next 12 hours will be incredibly complicated, but there’s a general consensus that, at least for us on the Kitsap Peninsula, this will be a very weak snow event.

The National Weather Service went into great detail about why snow is likely and why snow isn’t. Just a few points:

• The airmass is certainly dry enough for evaporative cooling
• Precipitation is going to arrive a bit earlier than anticipated, meaning a better chance that precip starts as snow
• Precipitation will be light, however, making it very susceptible to the warm southerly winds in the morning
• The Olympics will once again act as a major barrier, greatly limiting our snow amounts
• Temperatures will be just barely cold enough to support snow, so even a little warming could be the difference between all snow or all rain.

See how complicated snow forecasts can get around here?! The NWS is calling for anywhere from 0-2″ over the Hood Canal/Kitsap region, so definitely plan on getting up a little earlier than usual just to take a look at road conditions. At this point, all of you have about an equal chance of waking up to green lawns as you do white ones. Indeed, this is one of those scenarios where no particular place on the peninsula is favored to receive more snow than another.

One thing is for sure though: Rain will dominate by the afternoon for much of the lowlands. Again, we’ll be shadowed, so the rain won’t be a huge deal for us.

Christmas looks dry and chilly right now, so at least we’ll have one ingredient in our favor for making this place feel a little more festive 🙂 Have a great evening!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail Matt Leach at: forecastingkitsap@live.com