Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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**WINTER STORM WATCH Issued for Thursday night/Friday morning

December 18th, 2013 by Matthew Leach

WINTER STORM WATCH (12-18-2013)

**Stay tuned for updates over the next 36 hours**

The Seattle National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH, in effect from 10:00 PM Thursday evening until 4:00 PM Friday afternoon, for anywhere from 1-3 inches of snow in the greater Puget Sound Region.

This is a complicated forecast (as any snow-related forecast is), primarily because we are going to engage in a cold vs. warm battle that will ultimately determine how much snow we see.

First off, I personally don’t believe we’ll see that much snow with this system as temperatures will be pretty marginal and the Kitsap area won’t be favored to see much of the white stuff anyway. That being said, some snow is possible.

Screen Shot 2013-12-18 at 3.55.53 PM

This particular model suggests far eastern Kitsap County could see around three inches of snow, with most everyone else forecast to receive 1-2 inches.

So here’s the story: The passage of a chilly cold front Wednesday night (tonight) will usher in some much cooler air during the day Thursday. High temperatures likely won’t crack 40.

As the sun sets Thursday evening, temperatures will plummet. But here’s where it gets complicated. An advancing warm front will begin charging into Western Washington early Friday morning, bringing with it precipitation and warmer air. Will we have enough cold air stored by the time the precipitation arrives? Believe it or not, it’s still too soon to tell. Right now the precip is set to arrive by 4 AM Friday morning, which is just about perfect for those wanting snow. By that time, temps will still be in the lower 30s.

The next forecast problem is how soon we warm up. Chances are it could be very quick, bringing us into the mid-30s by sunrise. Other models suggest we could stay cool enough for snow through the late morning hours, with snow continuing for north sound folks into the afternoon.

Stay tuned for updates as they come in. Sometimes models overdo snow totals and a lot of people get disappointed, so we’ll see what models are saying tonight into tomorrow.

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail Matt Leach at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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