Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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Grab your umbrellas, and maybe your snorkels, too. It’s going to get wet around here!

September 26th, 2013 by Matthew Leach

Go figure! Western Washington is going to get wet. But let’s be clear about what weather models are advertising for this weekend: It’s not going to be a typically drippy late September weather pattern. A series of fronts will actually move their way through Western Washington that could pack enough of a punch to take care of July, August and September’s rain totals combined.

Here’s a look at what I’m seeing by 5pm Friday evening:

Screen Shot 2013-09-26 at 6.45.46 PM

Seems innocent enough, right? About a quarter inch of rain for the main Kitsap area with places to the south or north receiving a bit more. What’s the big deal? Well, here’s Saturday’s system (totals ending at 5am Sunday):

Screen Shot 2013-09-26 at 6.46.10 PM

I don’t know about you, but the western part of this map looks like a big, nasty bruise. And I suppose in some ways it could be considered such. Rainfall totals by early Sunday morning could amount to as much as 2.50″ for Kitsap County. Incredible! But let’s take a step back and look at this sucker from a 72-hour point of view (totals from Friday through Sunday PM):

Screen Shot 2013-09-26 at 6.46.45 PM

I was about to put a “Viewer Discretion is Advised” label on this picture because of its graphic content. In 72-hours, the University of Washington’s Atmospheric Sciences models place us anywhere between…*gulp*…2.50″ to 4.50″. I don’t know of any other way to say it: This weekend will be an absolute washout. A soaker.

Ok, now that you know the precipitation stats, why is this happening to us? What has innocent Western Washington done to deserve this deluge of rain in such a short amount of time? Friday’s system is really nothing impressive, but Saturday’s storm will have remnants from an old typhoon that will help boost the precip totals. So basically, wave after wave of what would normally be a typical rainy Washington weekend is being enhanced by more moist influences.

Stay tuned for some possible Flood Watches or Flood Warnings. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were posted in the coming days.

Once the storm passes Sunday night though, the snow level really plummets. By Monday the snow level will be at around 5,000′ with temperatures barely reaching the upper 50s.

So stock up on the umbrellas! We might think we’re used to rain, but this kind of rain doesn’t come around very often…

Have a safe weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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6 Responses to “Grab your umbrellas, and maybe your snorkels, too. It’s going to get wet around here!”

  1. Derek Lyons Says:

    What’s the scale on the maps measured in? What’s a “cin”?

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Good question! It’s just simply inches. I’m not sure why it is represented as “cin,” though :)

  3. Maureen O'Gara Says:

    Isn’t this the 3rd or 4th weekend in a row that we have been advised about “heavy rains” and to be prepared?

  4. Matthew Leach Says:

    Hi, Maureen! Many weekdays this month have featured heavy rain, but this is the first real threat for heavy rain (or I should say continuous heavy rain) this fall season. In fact, the last big weather news story was the 90 degree reading a couple of weeks ago!

  5. anonymous Says:

    cin = cubic inches

  6. Matthew Leach Says:

    Thanks!

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