Forecasting Kitsap

Aspiring weatherman Matthew Leach talks about the complex and intricate weather patterns over Kitsap.
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September making it a goal to outdo August storms

September 4th, 2013 by Matthew Leach

 

Rain Storm

Photo by YouNews contributer CadenceWhittle, Mukilteo, WA (8/29/2013)

The above picture is probably all that is needed to conjure up memories of a stormy late August evening. Then again, this turbulent event wasn’t all that long ago. In fact, tomorrow (Thursday) marks the one week anniversary of this rare August weather pattern, and we’re about to go another round of heavy rain and storms because…well…Mother Nature says so.

First of all, a FLOOD WATCH is in effect from 12:00 pm September 5th through 6:00 pm September 6th  for the Puget Sound region including Kitsap County. This watch has been issued because, according to the National Weather Service,

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY…WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE OLYMPIC RANGE EASTWARDTHUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE RAIN RATES OF AN INCH IN ONE HOUR OR LESS. (Read more here)

Is it just me, or does it sound weird to say this is our second major storm of the summer season? We hardly ever have a first!

Let’s take a look at this bad boy on the satellite picture. Notice the tight spin just off the coast:

VIS4NW

That clearly defined low pressure system will slowly track eastward through Oregon and then creep northward toward our area. This won’t be the kind of tightly-wound low pressure system that produces extreme wind, but it will produce some pretty hefty rain totals (hence the Flood Watch):

wa_pcp24_48_0000

The above image, which comes via the University of Washington’s plethora of weather models, advertises about an inch or more of rain for much of Western Washington (green/pink colors), with most of the coast experiencing lighter totals in the 0.30-0.70″ range.

Also, if we take a look at the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), it is exceptionally high for our region (the brighter the shade, the more instability)

mcape_36_0000

Therefore, expect not only periods of heavy rain Thursday into Friday morning, but also a series of thunderstorms. Of course, startling thunder, blinding lightning and copious amounts of rain in a short amount of time come in the “thunderstorm package deal.”

So there you have it! It’s going to be a wet and stormy 48 hours, so be prepared for areas of flooding and unfavorable traffic conditions.

Be safe out there! More updates as they come…

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: forecastingkitsap@live.com

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2 Responses to “September making it a goal to outdo August storms”

  1. travis Baker (Road Warrior) Says:

    There was an inch and a quarter of rain in a glass I set out late Thursday afternoon and checked when I awoke at 6 a.m.
    That sound right? Though it rained pretty steadily after that, the entire morning produced only about a trace.

  2. Matthew Leach Says:

    Yes, that sounds about right. Bremerton’s official station caught a little less than an inch of rain, but they’re not typically representative of Kitsap as a whole, anyway. Thanks for the gauge measurement!

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