You’ve heard the rumors, you’ve seen the forecasts, and now it’s
time to separate fact from fiction.
First thing’s first. We’re probably not going to break any
records here, and conditions are looking a little less favorable
for a historic heatwave. Nevertheless, a gigantic ridge of
high pressure is slowly bubbling up and expanding from the Desert
Southwest. You can see it graphically in the image below, which
displays the current pattern:
This monster heat will primarily terrorize folks in the
Southwest, but there are clear signs the Pacific Northwest will get
a healthy dosage of very warm weather this weekend into
next week. Predicting how long the heat will stay is
always a tricky forecast, but one thing is for certain: It’s about
to get a tad uncomfortable around here, at least for
those with true Seattle blood.
Let’s break down the timing. Obviously Thursday has featured
more in the way of showers than expected, and such high
humidity that it feels like we’ve somehow been transplanted into
Kansas City. As that colossal ridge grows in strength, we’ll notice
our trusty marine influence will run out of steam. The good news
is, this spells a mostly sunny day for your Friday with high
temperatures spiking into the 80s. The bad(ish) news? Well, summer
lovers are about to have their dreams fulfilled, if not
exceeded.
Mostly sunny skies will be the theme Saturday through
midweek next week, but it now looks like we could face a few random
thundershowers Saturday and Wednesday. Either way, temperatures
will likely rise several degrees each day. Right now, here’s my
current thinking for highs Friday through Wednesday of next week
(the numbers are subject to change a few degrees either way
over the next couple days!):
- FRIDAY: 78º, Partly to
mostly sunny
- SATURDAY: 85º, Mostly sunny (slim chance
for a thundershower)
- SUNDAY: 83º, Sunny
- MONDAY: 88º, Sunny
- TUESDAY: 91º, Sunny
- WEDSNESDAY: 84º, Mostly sunny (chance
for a thundershower)
This is a fairly impressive streak of warm weather for our
neck of the woods, especially if we manage to make it into the 90s
Monday and Tuesday (By the way, it looks like we’ll cool down
enough for Independence Day, with highs likely dropping back
into the 70s. But then there’s talk of thundershower
activity, so needless to say we’ll talk more about those details
when we get closer).
You might have also heard about the slim possibility
of hitting 100º or above during this heatwave, as one
forecast model actually advertised such a thing. At this point, I
wouldn’t poke my neck out any farther than the low 90s, but again,
with each passing day the numbers can and most likely will
change.
Another thing to note: Nighttime temperatures will be very mild,
often never getting out of the 60s. Be sure to invest in some good
fans, because they will come in handy throughout all the air
condition-less homes in Western Washington!
Lastly, please be careful out on the water! Rivers and lakes are
still rather cold this time of year, and many summertime water
accidents occur during the first big heat of the season.
Stay tuned to the Forecasting Kitsap blog for frequent updates
over the next week or so as this heat unfolds. Have a wonderful
day!
Matthew Leach
Forecasting Kitsap
Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail Matt Leach at:
forecastingkitsap@live.com
