Monthly Archives: June 2013

**EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH in effect July 1st

Here comes the heat.

Saturday has proven to be yet another uncomfortably hot day in Western Washington, but it’s about to get hotter. The Seattle National Weather Service just issued an EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH, in effect Monday, July 1st:

6-29-2013 heat watch.jpg

Forecast models are still all over the place in the temperature department, but it looks like we may stay near 90 early next week before cooling down to the 80s just before Independence Day. It isn’t until the 4th itself that any true relief looks likely.

The humidity will also run high over the next several days, as the air flow will be coming from the south instead of either directly off the ocean or from Eastern Washington.

The next headline will be thunderstorm potential Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Storm activity will be primarily focused over the Cascades, but as we have all come to experience, those pesky storms usually find their way down to the lowlands.

Have a great weekend, and stay tuned for further updates!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at:


Washington to get a taste of Western U.S. heatwave


You’ve heard the rumors, you’ve seen the forecasts, and now it’s time to separate fact from fiction.

First thing’s first. We’re probably not going to break any records here, and conditions are looking a little less favorable for a historic heatwave. Nevertheless, a gigantic ridge of high pressure is slowly bubbling up and expanding from the Desert Southwest. You can see it graphically in the image below, which displays the current pattern:

6-27 GFS heat

This monster heat will primarily terrorize folks in the Southwest, but there are clear signs the Pacific Northwest will get a healthy dosage of very warm weather this weekend into next week. Predicting how long the heat will stay is always a tricky forecast, but one thing is for certain: It’s about to get a tad uncomfortable around here, at least for those with true Seattle blood.

Let’s break down the timing. Obviously Thursday has featured more in the way of showers than expected, and such high humidity that it feels like we’ve somehow been transplanted into Kansas City. As that colossal ridge grows in strength, we’ll notice our trusty marine influence will run out of steam. The good news is, this spells a mostly sunny day for your Friday with high temperatures spiking into the 80s. The bad(ish) news? Well, summer lovers are about to have their dreams fulfilled, if not exceeded.

Mostly sunny skies will be the theme Saturday through midweek next week, but it now looks like we could face a few random thundershowers Saturday and Wednesday. Either way, temperatures will likely rise several degrees each day. Right now, here’s my current thinking for highs Friday through Wednesday of next week (the numbers are subject to change a few degrees either way over the next couple days!):

  • FRIDAY: 78º, Partly to mostly sunny
  • SATURDAY: 85º, Mostly sunny (slim chance for a thundershower)
  • SUNDAY: 83º, Sunny
  • MONDAY: 88º, Sunny
  • TUESDAY: 91º, Sunny
  • WEDSNESDAY: 84º, Mostly sunny (chance for a thundershower)

This is a fairly impressive streak of warm weather for our neck of the woods, especially if we manage to make it into the 90s Monday and Tuesday (By the way, it looks like we’ll cool down enough for Independence Day, with highs likely dropping back into the 70s. But then there’s talk of thundershower activity, so needless to say we’ll talk more about those details when we get closer).

You might have also heard about the slim possibility of hitting 100º or above during this heatwave, as one forecast model actually advertised such a thing. At this point, I wouldn’t poke my neck out any farther than the low 90s, but again, with each passing day the numbers can and most likely will change.

Another thing to note: Nighttime temperatures will be very mild, often never getting out of the 60s. Be sure to invest in some good fans, because they will come in handy throughout all the air condition-less homes in Western Washington!

Lastly, please be careful out on the water! Rivers and lakes are still rather cold this time of year, and many summertime water accidents occur during the first big heat of the season.

Stay tuned to the Forecasting Kitsap blog for frequent updates over the next week or so as this heat unfolds. Have a wonderful day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail Matt Leach at:


Cool and wet for now, but the heat is coming

We’re still dealing with the typical showers and sunbreaks for now, but a large ridge of high pressure building in the southwest United States will serve to bring sunny and much warmer temperatures by the weekend, perhaps lasting through Independence Day. How warm will we get? I’ll discusses the details in today’s video forecast:

Have a great day!

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at:

Happy summer!…well, meteorological summer

June has started off on a mild and sunnier-than-normal note, with high temperatures soaring into the low 70s. It felt even warmer due to the fact we’ve been sitting a good 10 to 15 degrees below or seasonal average.

The first day of summer officially starts on Friday, June 21st, but meteorologists…ahem…don’t really care about the sun’s position and what solstice is what or what equinox is what. Maybe it’s because I already have a bias, but the meteorological understanding of seasons just makes a little more sense, hence the “logical” part of the word 😉

Meteorologists define seasons more by temperature and weather. Warm–or even downright hot–weather occurs before the first official day of summer every year. Our nation begins to experience its warmest temperatures by late May/early June, so to make it easy, meteorologists dubbed meteorological summer as June 1st.

September 1st is meteorological autumn (fall), as temperatures overall begin to take a downward trend and may northern states experience their first frosts.

December 1st is meteorological winter, as temperatures and weather have long expressed their snowy and cold attitudes by then.

March 1st is meteorological spring, because by this point most temperatures begin trending upward.

This makes it easy for all of us. You don’t need to check the calendar as often to know which season it is! But I suppose for the sake of most of the world, we’ll keep things the way they are 🙂 For more information on these seasonal variations, click here.

You’ll be glad to know that even though the first official day of summer isn’t for another few weeks, Mother Nature will play along with the notion it actually started today. Therefore, expect morning clouds Sunday and Monday with clearing skies and high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

We warm even more for Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure continues to build offshore. This will fling temperatures into the mid to upper 70s…maybe even–dare I say it–80 degrees!

We cool off a little by the end of next week, but the ridge rebuilds by next weekend bringing more sunshine and mild temperatures along with it. Yay for meteorological summer! 🙂

Have a fantastic weekend,

Matthew Leach

Forecasting Kitsap

Questions? Comments? Photos? E-mail me at: